Evaluate the Bedard trade

[dan the man]

How do the Mariners win over the next 4 years when they might only have Bedard for two?

Hahaha good freaking point there. Sorry if this was already pointed out but that's a really crucial point, and one of the main reasons this is such a good deal for the O's.

[dkdc]

Some interesting notes from Jayson Stark:

Every baseball man we've polled rates the Orioles' return for Bedard as being vastly superior to the Twins' return for Johan Santana, assuming the rumored names are correct.

Adam Jones "oozes tools," said one scout. Another had this review: "I think he'll be a very good offensive player, with exceptional defense." Jones has been compared to both Torii Hunter and Mike Cameron. But the second scout said: "He could be better than either one of those guys." And the primary pitching piece, Chris Tillman, is such a scout favorite that one says: "When it's all said and done, he'll be the one guy in this deal everybody talks about."

And:

If the Orioles don't get a big-league-ready starter out of the Bedard deal, there are rumblings they might bring back Steve Trachsel to chew up some innings.

[Flip217]

http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/

Danke!

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[AgentOrange]

Chew 'em up Stevie!!!!!

[Shopay]

If the trade goes through, I happy. I believe it is something the O's have to do, and I like the return.

[JTrea81]

I'd rather go with Livan Hernandez than Steve Trachsel...

[psk3170]

Here how I look at it. We just traded the rarest commodity in baseball which is a LH pitcher with great stuff who finally has above average control who has proven he can beat the Yankees and Red Sox consistently with an inferior talented team behind him. Their are at best 3 to 5 LH in all of baseball with Bedard ability and Santana is the only one under 30 like Bedard.

The Orioles in return are getting Seattle's #1 hitting and overall BA prospect from last year at a huge need position for the Orioles in CF Adam Jones. Jones is not eligible this year because he went slightly over the minimum requirements but my guess is he would be #1 again. In my opinion he would be our #1 by a bit over Wieters but basically top 20 in all of baseball like Wieters if we acquire him.

In addition, we get probably the second rarest thing in baseball. A major league proven LH relief pitcher with impeccable control in Sherrill that possibly could close. I keep thinking a similar version of our former Oriole BJ Ryan just before he became a dominant closer and we let him roll out of town.

The third piece is Chris Tillman. The Mariners Top 10 comes out today but I have the BA prospect handbook and he is rated #3 behind Clement, and Aumont and ahead of the almighty Triunfel. Every report I have read this week is not to look at his stats in the CAL league because his numbers at 19 years old were off the charts considering his home park in High desert is one of the worst pitching environments in all the minors. His numbers were better than one of my favorite Orioles prospects Brandon Erbe at the same level at the same age who pitched in a much friendlier pitchers league. This guy has the highest upside in our system pitching wise other than Loewen. He could be a #2 if he stays healthy. Throws in the mid to low 90's with 2 above average major league pitches already plus I love that picture of him with Cal that was posted.

The #4 guy is Tony Butler. He was #4 last year and #12 this year on the BA Mariners prospect list. He is LH and only 20 years old but regressed last year most people think because he played only 30 minutes form his hometown in Wisconsin and had shoulder and durability issues due to never having pitched so many innings being from Wisconsin where baseball is limited to a few months a year. He is a bit bigger but similar in size to Loewen (6-7 218) with similar control and injury issues. Not sure he has Loewen's upside but if all went perfect has the ability to be #2-3 in the majors.

The throw-In (LOL) is a 24 year old 6-9 256 pound monster reliever with a 92-97 mph sinker (sinker ball in Camden Yards limits homers) who has one of the meanest stare downs in the minors apparently. Another Cabrera in term of intimidating size. By the way, he only started playing baseball in the past 3-5 years because their was little organized baseball in his home state of Montana while growing up so he is very raw even though he is older than most prospects.

My take on the trade is the Mariners get something that only 2-3 teams in all of baseball have a true #1 LH pitcher who only continues to get better and has already proven he can beat the best teams and is still young.

The Orioles get 5 very young players with high risk/high reward written all over them. It would be like the Orioles trading the Mariners Rowell (last years #1 for Orioles in BA but not a real comp for Jones), Erbe (comparable to Tillman), the Delmarva version of Adam Loewen (Butler), pre-closer Orioles version of BJ Ryan (Sherrill), and the reliever version of Cabrera with a bit better control.

Does that sound like a trade you would make. I sure would. I would not even hesitate but I also think it serves both teams needs. Seattle is trying to go for it in the next 2-3 years and Bedard will help plus they kept all their top position player talent other than Jones, and The Orioles got what they needed pieces to trade or add to our improving existing minor league talent that will help us compete in 2009 and after not to mention all the money we saved that could be put to better use (TEX???) in the future.

Sorry for the long response.

[Shopay]

BTW, i still don't think the Orioles gained anything by waiting this long.

This is a deal I would think Seattle agrees to weeks ago.

We will never know for sure, but, based what we have heard (granted its speculation), I got to disagree with you here SG. In December, we were hearing that the offer from the M's was Jones, Sherrill and Tillman. Recently (early last week or so), Bavasi says he has put his best and final offer on the table. Then, from all indications, late last week/early this week it appears the teams agree on the framework of a deal from the perspective of what players are involved. Based on this information, I believe AM told Bavasi that the December deal (Jones, Tillman and Sherrill) was not going to get it done, and waited the Mariners out. The Mariners finally increased their offer by including two more prospects (Butler and The Mick). Thus, I believe AM's waiting game netted us two prospects.

[TinCup]

Sorry for the long response.

NO need to apologize! Good post.

I believe it is hard for some on OH to look at this trade "objectively". Clearly those who do not and did not favor trading Bedard are looking at this trade with a certain bias, just as those who are/were in favor of it are as well. With that said, I believe there is plenty of objective information available that suggests this is a real good trade for us, for both teams!

We have/had to make this trade IMO. Our lack of depth and talent of players who are in our control for mulitple years is so glaring, we are forced down this road of trading Bedard and BRob. Get 'em done and move on with e new team!!!

[Sports Guy]

We will never know for sure, but, based what we have heard (granted its speculation), I got to disagree with you here SG. In December, we were hearing that the offer from the M's was Jones, Sherrill and Tillman. Recently (early last week or so), Bavasi says he has put his best and final offer on the table. Then, from all indications, late last week/early this week it appears the teams agree on the framework of a deal from the perspective of what players are involved. Based on this information, I believe AM told Bavasi that the December deal (Jones, Tillman and Sherrill) was not going to get it done, and waited the Mariners out. The Mariners finally increased their offer by including two more prospects (Butler and The Mick). Thus, I believe AM's waiting game netted us two prospects.

Bigbird told us back in December that the 4th player was the issue. It is obvious the Orioles were trying to get Triunfel, Clement or Morrow as the 4th guy.

Had we said back then, give us Butler and its a done deal, i have no doubt it gets done then.

Just because Bavasi said this is my final and best offer is meaningless. That could easily be him saying that we aren't trading any of the other top top guys. Maybe we gained Mickilio by waiting...maybe.

Big deal..Would rather have not gotten him and had a chance to do many other things, like perhaps dealing Mora to the Phils.

[DrungoHazewood]

If the Orioles don't get a big-league-ready starter out of the Bedard deal, there are rumblings they might bring back Steve Trachsel to chew up some innings.

There can't be 50 professional pitchers I'd want less than Steve Trachsel. And by professional I mean people who are currently paid to pitch at any level of the sport.

The PECOTA cards for 2008 aren't out yet but Trachsel may set a new record for collapse rate. When I did some back-of-the-napkin comps for Trachsel's ERA+, K rate, and BB rate last season virtually every comparable pitcher was out of baseball within a season, forced into retirement by hideous performances.

[ijoshyounot]

We never mention this trade when we talk Bedard's value. Bedard allowed 5 steals on him the entire year last year. 4 in 2006. That is a total of 9 steals in two seasons. On top of not letting many people on base, he holds them too.

[health55]

Let me see if I get this straight. The M's get Bedard for 2 years (for sure), with the "possibility" of signing him for more. But, there is also the "possibility" that they don't.

I suspect that the Seattle Mariners found Erik Bedard attractive because they would control him for two years but would not be bound by a long-term commitment.

Two years is a long time ... Erik Bedard could get better, maintain or get worse. The Mariners and Bedard should postpone extension talks until each side has a chance to decide whether they're a good fit.

The worst-case scenario for the Mariners is that Bedard tanks for two years, is neither a Type A nor Type B free agent, and walks after the 2009 season without compensation.

[ON BASE %]

OK, it appears like it will be done soon. Everything seems to be in line. Roch has moved on to Roberts. So what do you think of the trade? Who wins? Who loses?

The trade is Bedard for Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and pitching prospects Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio. The O's probably waive Roberson to make room for Sherrill.

My opinion is that over the next 4 years the Mariners won, after that it is anyones guess.

For the next 4 years the trade at the major league level is Bedard for Jones, Sherrill, and maybe Mickolio. Barring injury which could happen on either side of this trade, the Mariners got the guy that is likely to perform the best.

Bulter and Tilman will likely spend three more years in the minors and a rookie year in the majors before their performance turns into a positive at the major league level. Penn, Olson, Albers, Hoey; their first appearances at the major league level were not pretty. I expect Tillman and Butler to has similar starts to their careers. Then, hopefully they will have very good majors league careers.

MacPhail did not get Morrow or Clement or Balentien. They would all have supplied more, sooner at the major league level. The Cinny trade might be as good or better without Bruce. Jones should be a very good player.

So, I think the Mariners win until 2012, then there is the chance the O's may win. It will be a long, long time before this trade can be fully evaluated.

Wildcard, let me preface my evaluation like this. I am not taking into account any extenuating factors or opportunity costs (i.e. possibility Bedard extends, other trades, impact on strategy, or lost draft picks). The only facts I am accounting for are that Bedard is under contractual control for 2 more seasons, Jones for 5, and Sherrill for 2.

I predict that the Orioles to receive more marginal wins from Jones/Sherrill over their 7 contractually controlled seasons than Bedard over 2.

Any contribution from Tillman, Butler, and Mickolio would be a bonus IMO. And I think it is reasonable to expect at least a few marginal wins from that trio of pitchers.

Again, this is just a very quick first take and I think it is a good deal for the Orioles. When time allows I will look at this transaction closer and scrutinize in depth. This is my last day here at work and am headed off for a ski vacation. So I don't have time to go into much more detail than this.

I realize you have been an advocate of keeping both Bedard/Roberts and definitely respect your opinion. For better or worse it appears that MacPhail is committing to a rebuild. We'll just have to wait and see what happens from here...

[dkdc]

The only facts I am accounting for are that Bedard is under contractual control for 2 more seasons, Jones for 5, and Sherrill for 2.

Sherrill has 2 years, 147 days of service time according to Cot's Contracts.

He should be under Oriole control for 4 more years.