Evaluate the Bedard trade

[Frobby]

Sherrill has 2 years, 147 days of service time according to Cot's Contracts.

He should be under Oriole control for 4 more years.

And Jones for 6, not 5.

[PaulFolk]

You keep trying to sell us this, but I'm not buying it. Trying to evaluate a trade based on when something became available is total conjecture since none of us are in the room. Even if we only got Mickilio added, great. That is more than we had before and not a game has gone by. But you know what, the trade hasn't even gone down yet so I can't even say that right now.

You believe we've missed out on stuff. Maybe we have, but again you're too early. Evaluate things once they've all played out. Only then will we have an idea what should have happened.

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO. MacPhail isn't stupid. The Phils signed what's his name because that is the move they wanted to make. End of story.

I agree with everything in this post. It's a bit silly to suggest that holding on to Bedard for so long somehow had an effect on whether Melvin Mora would be traded. The two have nothing to do with each other. If the Phils had wanted Mora, the O's could've worked something out.

[LookinUp]

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO. MacPhail isn't stupid. The Phils signed what's his name because that is the move they wanted to make. End of story.

Agreed. We already have Moore and Huff at 3b so there was nothing keeping us from dropping Mora at any time if any decent offer was ever out there. I'll go on record as saying More hasn't been traded because we cannot trade him w/o taking on too much of his salary for Angelos' taste.

[El Gordo]

I have a lot of opinions I want to express, but as I said 3 weeks ago, I won't do it until it has been formally announced that a trade has occurred. Believe me, I'll have plenty to say.

I wish you would express them now Frobby I would like to hear them, and by the time this trade finally gets announced I can't gaurantee I'll still be on this earth. I'm not getting any younger:002_sbiggrin:

[Three Run Homer]

I'm a bit disappointed in the assumed trade, because I really wanted to get Triunfel back. Nevertheless this is a good trade for the O's and I hope it goes through.

In Adam Jones the O's are getting a high-ceiling prospect at a premium defensive position who is major league ready. That's a rare and valuable commodity. Put it this way--Adam Jones is more valuable prospect now than Nick Markakis was prior to the 2006 season. Jones alone makes this a good trade.

I don't understand why we wanted Sherrill back, frankly. He's at an age where he can help a good team contend, but he doesn't make sense for the Orioles right now. There's talk about flipping him for someone else, but there was similar talk for Luke Scott as well, and it appears Scott is going to be our opening day left fielder. I suspect that PA or AM insisted that that O's get a presentable "proven major leaguer" to be a closer. I think that's a waste of trade equity. If we had let the Mariners keep Sherrill, Butler and Mickolio we might have gotten Triunfel or Clement back.

Tillman and Butler are valuable pieces, although it's hard for me to get that excited about a 19 or 20-year old pitcher at A ball, no matter how good his stuff is supposed to be. Too many things can happen along the way to the major leagues. Still, at least there's a chance that one of them will be something special; throw them in a hopper with Brandon Erbe, Chorye Spoone, Brad Bergesen and Zach Britton, and hopefully 1-2 good major league starters will pop out in 3 years.

Mickolio has good AA/AAA numbers and is considerably younger and therefore more valuable than Rocky Cherry or Dennis Sarfate. I think he'll be a useful bullpen piece quickly.

Overall, I'd say this is a better haul than the Twins got for Santana or the A's got for Haren, mainly because Adam Jones has a higher ceiling than anyone that came back to the Twins or A's. So I'd chalk this trade up as a success for MacPhail, assuming it goes through.

[Sports Guy]

Don't kid yourself. The Twins thought the Mets offer was a better deal or they would have gone back to Boston and NY.

Except those offers were no longer on the table.

There is no way NY & Bos wouldn't go back to previous offers

Yes there is...The Yankees decided to take Hughes off the table and the Red Sox didn't want to tade Lester.

Nothing was "lost" by waiting

Except better players.

[Sports Guy]

You keep trying to sell us this, but I'm not buying it.

Of coruse you aren't...When in doubt, vaTech gives the Orioles the benefit of the doubt.

You believe we've missed out on stuff. Maybe we have, but again you're too early. Evaluate things once they've all played out. Only then will we have an idea what should have happened.

I have said repeatedly that if AM is able to make other moves, then waiting didn't matter...At this point, it looks very unlikely that he will be able to consumate another 2-4 trades this offseason.

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO.

This isn't true.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with everything in this post. It's a bit silly to suggest that holding on to Bedard for so long somehow had an effect on whether Melvin Mora would be traded. The two have nothing to do with each other. If the Phils had wanted Mora, the O's could've worked something out.

BRob has nothing to do with bedard yet we know they aren't trading BRob until the Bedard situation resolves itself.

Of course it is silly..In fact, it is moronic but its still how the Orioles are treating the offseason.

[El Gordo]

BTW, i still don't think the Orioles gained anything by waiting this long.

This is a deal I would think Seattle agrees to weeks ago.

Well isn't that convenient for you to say, since no one can prove it one way or the other.:002_sbiggrin:

[ON BASE %]

Sherrill has 2 years, 147 days of service time according to Cot's Contracts.

He should be under Oriole control for 4 more years.

I stand corrected! I took a quick glance at Sherril on baseball reference and saw 4 years with the Mariners. I didn't factor the short stints into the service time.

[El Gordo]

There can't be 50 professional pitchers I'd want less than Steve Trachsel. And by professional I mean people who are currently paid to pitch at any level of the sport.

The PECOTA cards for 2008 aren't out yet but Trachsel may set a new record for collapse rate. When I did some back-of-the-napkin comps for Trachsel's ERA+, K rate, and BB rate last season virtually every comparable pitcher was out of baseball within a season, forced into retirement by hideous performances.

Very true, but you probably were saying much the same thing last season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Very true, but you probably were saying much the same thing last season.

Before he signed? Yes, but not as vehemently. His 2007 peripherals were far worse than his mediocre 2006 numbers. Anything I said a year ago regarding Trachsel is doubled this year.

[El Gordo]

Before he signed? Yes, but not as vehemently. His 2007 peripherals were far worse than his mediocre 2006 numbers. Anything I said a year ago regarding Trachsel is doubled this year.

Did his 2006 numbers project accurately to his actaul 2007 numbers?

[Shopay]

Bigbird told us back in December that the 4th player was the issue. It is obvious the Orioles were trying to get Triunfel, Clement or Morrow as the 4th guy.

Had we said back then, give us Butler and its a done deal, i have no doubt it gets done then.

Just because Bavasi said this is my final and best offer is meaningless. That could easily be him saying that we aren't trading any of the other top top guys. Maybe we gained Mickilio by waiting...maybe.

Big deal..Would rather have not gotten him and had a chance to do many other things, like perhaps dealing Mora to the Phils.

A little over a week ago, you said that it was your opinion that Jones, Tillman and Sherrill are coming as part of the Bedard deal, and the teams are fighting over a fourth player. (See the thread you started on 1/24 entitled "Do You Make This Deal?"). You further state in the thread that you would do the deal for simply Jones, Tillman and Sherrill, and, IIRC, in other threads you have critized AM for not taking the deal, thereby purportedly wasting time. Based on everything I have read (and I'm speculating here as you are), AM, using good negotiating tactics (ask for more than you will settle for), was requesting the fourth player be Murrow, Clement or Truinfel. OTOH, Bavasi was probably countering with a marginal prospect. In the end, Bavasi put his "best and final offer" on the table, which was Butler and The Mike. It wasn't what AM requested, but it was better than the marginal prospect Bavasi had been offering previously. Bavasi is no stranger to negotiations, so I doubt he had his best offer on the table in December. Moreover, even if this didn't happen, I applaud AM for waiting this out. That is what good negotiators do (e.g., Scott Boras).

[33rdst]

This is a great trade for the Orioles, especially when you consider that we we're likely to lose Bedard and only get a draft pick back for him if we keep him.

Adam Jones is a complete stud. The numbers he put up at AAA as a TWENTY ONE year old are incomprehensible. Tillman is likely to be a top of the rotation starter. Sherrill will not only serve as an excellent stop gap closer until the deadline but he is likely to bring us a couple of high end prospects aas well. The two prospects we are getting are top twenty guys for Seattle. Physically they're both mosters with huge potential. I love this deal.

Now we need to complete the work and trade Roberts and a few veterans.