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Long term, do you think Schoop will hit?


Frobby

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On the topic of Schoop.

He's 22 in his first full year. Not everyone can be Mike Trout and dominant at the plate immediately.

To me, he looks like he can hit ? even if the numbers aren't there right now. Like many others I see a guy that can hit 20 homers a year and hit in the .260-.275 range, within the next couple years. Couple that with his sterling glove and I see no reason to send him down to the minors.

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On the topic of Schoop.

He's 22 in his first full year. Not everyone can be Mike Trout and dominant at the plate immediately.To me, he looks like he can hit ? even if the numbers aren't there right now. Like many others I see a guy that can hit 20 homers a year and hit in the .260-.275 range, within the next couple years. Couple that with his sterling glove and I see no reason to send him down to the minors.

I see this as a false dichotomy.

Nick Castellanos is 22, and has a .265/.311/.403 line.

Xander Bogaerts is 22, and has a .234/.310/.353 line.

Rougned Odor is 22, and has a .268/.305/.408 line.

Jon Singleton is 22, and has a .182/.269/.345 line.

Last year:

Eric Hosmer was 22, and had a .302/.353/.448 line

Salvador Perez was 22, and had a .292/.323/.433 line

Jose Altuve was 22, and had a .283/.316/.363 line

Matt Dominguez was 22, and had a .241/.286/.403 line

Those guys all had enough PA to qualify. There were 10 other players 22 and younger last year with 100+ PA, and only one of them had an OBP lower than Schoop's this year.

I'm not even getting into guys like Trout, Harper and Machado. I'm just saying, there are plenty of guys who can put up a .600+ OPS, and a .280+ OBP, at age 22. So I think it is very fair to ask if people think Schoop will develop into a decent hitter despite his struggles this year.

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I see this as a false dichotomy.

Nick Castellanos is 22, and has a .265/.311/.403 line.

Xander Bogaerts is 22, and has a .234/.310/.353 line.

Rougned Odor is 22, and has a .268/.305/.408 line.

Jon Singleton is 22, and has a .182/.269/.345 line.

Last year:

Eric Hosmer was 22, and had a .302/.353/.448 line

Salvador Perez was 22, and had a .292/.323/.433 line

Jose Altuve was 22, and had a .283/.316/.363 line

Matt Dominguez was 22, and had a .241/.286/.403 line

Those guys all had enough PA to qualify. There were 10 other players 22 and younger last year with 100+ PA, and only one of them had an OBP lower than Schoop's this year.

I'm not even getting into guys like Trout, Harper and Machado. I'm just saying, there are plenty of guys who can put up a .600+ OPS, and a .280+ OBP, at age 22. So I think it is very fair to ask if people think Schoop will develop into a decent hitter despite his struggles this year.

Are there players who can put up good numbers at 22? Obviously.

I think the more relevant question for Schoop is what do players who end up as productive major leaguers do at 22? There have been 294 players who played 1000+ games at either short or 2nd in their careers. Of those 294 at age 22:

166 didn't play in the Majors at all, so that includes the median 22-year-old. Most 1000+ game MLB middle infielders weren't in the majors at Schoop's age.

16 had MVP-ish seasons of 5+ rWAR.

41 were worth at least 3.0 rWAR.

37 were worth between 1.0 and 3.0 rWAR.

38 had OBPs below .300.

72 had an OPS under .700.

27 had an OPS under .600.

Jonathan Schoop currently has a .584 OPS. Royce Clayton had a .224/.281/.308 line at 22. Dickie Thon had a .255/.282/.315 line at 22. Bill Russell .227/.265/.327. Brandon Phillips .208/.242/.311. Dustin Pedroia .191/.258/.303. Davey Johnson 8-for-47. Toby Harrah .230/.300/.290.

I don't think there's anything that precludes Schoop from having a long, successful career because he's hitting poorly in his debut at this age. It seems that an awful lot of successful players hit poorly at 22, and most successful middle infielders are not good at this age. About 80% of players who end up with 1000+ games in the middle infield are either not in the majors or they're OPSing under .700 at this age.

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Are there players who can put up good numbers at 22? Obviously.

I think the more relevant question for Schoop is what do players who end up as productive major leaguers do at 22? There have been 294 players who played 1000+ games at either short or 2nd in their careers. Of those 294 at age 22:

166 didn't play in the Majors at all, so that includes the median 22-year-old. Most 1000+ game MLB middle infielders weren't in the majors at Schoop's age.

16 had MVP-ish seasons of 5+ rWAR.

41 were worth at least 3.0 rWAR.

37 were worth between 1.0 and 3.0 rWAR.

38 had OBPs below .300.

72 had an OPS under .700.

27 had an OPS under .600.

Jonathan Schoop currently has a .584 OPS. Royce Clayton had a .224/.281/.308 line at 22. Dickie Thon had a .255/.282/.315 line at 22. Bill Russell .227/.265/.327. Brandon Phillips .208/.242/.311. Dustin Pedroia .191/.258/.303. Davey Johnson 8-for-47. Toby Harrah .230/.300/.290.

I don't think there's anything that precludes Schoop from having a long, successful career because he's hitting poorly in his debut at this age. It seems that an awful lot of successful players hit poorly at 22, and most successful middle infielders are not good at this age. About 80% of players who end up with 1000+ games in the middle infield are either not in the majors or they're OPSing under .700 at this age.

Thank you for this post, it provides very useful information. Is it possible to research this in the other direction? I.e., of all the players who had 300+ major league at bats by age 22, and an OPS under .600 (not necessarily at 2B/SS, though that might be enough), how many of them turned out to be good hitters with a decent length career?

Obviously, I know that some players who start out slowly at a young age eventually become good hitters. That is one of the reasons I started this thread in the first place. I guess my concern is that I don't think Schoop looks any better now than he did in April and May. I think back to when Nick Markakis was a 22-year old rookie and struggled mightily for 2.5 months, but then started hitting dramatically better. Or, less, dramatically, Adam Jones at 22 started to get it in June of his first year with the O's. I feel like Schoop should be showing some signs of learning something by now.

(By the way, I know that Royce Clayton (.679 career OPS, 83 OPS+), Dickie Thon (.691, 95) and Bill Russell (.648, 79) were long-time major leaguers, but I'd be disappointed if Schoop ended up at their level offensively, though I guess Thon was decent for his time.)

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I see a guy who gets a hit every 4-5 PA and K's every 4-5 PA. He hits a HR every 7-8 G and gets a walk every 7-8 G. 200 .200 .267 .467 the last 28 days. At his current rate he should finish the season with 13 HR and 13 walks and 125 K's. I don't see any indication that he will improve on this.

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I see a guy who gets a hit every 4-5 PA and K's every 4-5 PA. He hits a HR every 7-8 G and gets a walk every 7-8 G. 200 .200 .267 .467 the last 28 days. At his current rate he should finish the season with 13 HR and 13 walks and 125 K's. I don't see any indication that he will improve on this.

Do you mean this year, or in the future?

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For those people saying JJ Hardy as his ceiling, I should point out that JJ is 6'1, 190 lbs(And I wouldnt call him "Lean") while Schoop came into camp at 6'2 228lbs. Even if he settles in at 225, Schoop is an inch taller and 35lbs heavier(mostly muscle). JJ has a high effort swing and he'll get on a hanging slider, but I think Schoop can have his home run output without the over exertion. This will keep him healthier also also lead to him being able to be a better hitter IMHO.

I see him constantly in the 07/08 version of Hardy (.270/.325/.460) with 25 Hr and 80 RBI's

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For those people saying JJ Hardy as his ceiling, I should point out that JJ is 6'1, 190 lbs(And I wouldnt call him "Lean") while Schoop came into camp at 6'2 228lbs. Even if he settles in at 225, Schoop is an inch taller and 35lbs heavier(mostly muscle). JJ has a high effort swing and he'll get on a hanging slider, but I think Schoop can have his home run output without the over exertion. This will keep him healthier also also lead to him being able to be a better hitter IMHO.

I see him constantly in the 07/08 version of Hardy (.270/.325/.460) with 25 Hr and 80 RBI's

I remember 235.

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I see a guy who gets a hit every 4-5 PA and K's every 4-5 PA. He hits a HR every 7-8 G and gets a walk every 7-8 G. 200 .200 .267 .467 the last 28 days. At his current rate he should finish the season with 13 HR and 13 walks and 125 K's. I don't see any indication that he will improve on this.

Glad to see you think this, so we can pretty much book Schoop will improve in the future! :)

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Do you mean this year, or in the future?
This year. I think with time he will be a Hardy like hitter. I just think he has been rushed and had he not been, he could well have developed more plate discipline before he got to the ML.

I think it will be tougher for him to learn it at the ML level, and he may h=not become the hitter he could be.

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For those people saying JJ Hardy as his ceiling, I should point out that JJ is 6'1, 190 lbs(And I wouldnt call him "Lean") while Schoop came into camp at 6'2 228lbs. Even if he settles in at 225, Schoop is an inch taller and 35lbs heavier(mostly muscle). JJ has a high effort swing and he'll get on a hanging slider, but I think Schoop can have his home run output without the over exertion. This will keep him healthier also also lead to him being able to be a better hitter IMHO.

I see him constantly in the 07/08 version of Hardy (.270/.325/.460) with 25 Hr and 80 RBI's

I don't think height and weight have all that much to do with power. Hank Aaron was 6' 180 lbs., Mantle 5'11' 195 lbs Schoop won't hit as many HR as either of those two little guys. He will hit more than Walter Young, 6'5" 315 lbs.
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I don't think height and weight have all that much to do with power. Hank Aaron was 6' 180 lbs., Mantle 5'11' 195 lbs Schoop won't hit as many HR as either of those two little guys. He will hit more than Walter Young, 6'5" 315 lbs.

Don't forget Mel Ott, 5'9 and 170 pounds, 511 Home Runs.

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