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AJ's approach: Are you fine with it?


tettleton14

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I am fine with him being an aggressive hitter. I am pro-SimplyAJ#10 all the way and don't want him to change fundamentally. However, his BB rate is truly pathetic. I mean, he is on pace for <20 walks this year, which would be a career low. His OPS the last three years is solidly above .800 but if he wants to be truly elite it needs to be .900+. I think he has more or less maxed out his power potential, so to me the only way to get there is to increase the walks.

The only time it really bothers me is when he works it to 3-1 or 3-2 and swings at a clear ball four in the dirt. There are several times this year that the Boston and Tampa announcers have been laughing at him for his refusal to take a walk in those situations. Just keep doing what you are doing but don't swing at ball four, turn 10 of those K's into BB's, and you can be a true superstar.

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I am fine with it because I am not someone that believes it is some lack of effort that makes him not patient, or that players can just magically change their approach without affecting anything else in their performance.

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I'm not "fine" with it' date=' but he is more than productive enough at the plate. You take the good with the bad. [b']Just as long as we aren't the team holding his contract when he gets older and his natural physical ability isn't able to overcome his approach.[/b]

I know baseball's a business, but isn't that a callous way to look at it?

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Just look at Trout vs AJ.

Trout 2013:.323 .432 .557 .988; 27 HR, 110 BB

AJ 2013: .285 .318 .493 .811; 33 HR, 25 BB

They are pretty close in BA and SLG. The BBs are a huge difference. Obviously you would rather have Trout. The question is whether AJ would sacrifice other parts of his game if he took more walks. That's just it for me. AJ will not even take a walk that is given to him. I am not going to kill AJ over it, but I truly think he could be a Trout or Cabrera level superstar if he could tweak his approach.

Now, AJ never would have struck out looking with the bases loaded like Trout did last night, but Trout was fuming because that really was not a strike. Personally I want the guy with the .432 OBP who absolutely knows the difference between a ball and a strike.

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I'm not "fine" with it' date=' but he is more than productive enough at the plate. You take the good with the bad. Just as long as we aren't the team holding his contract when he gets older and his natural physical ability isn't able to overcome his approach.[/quote']

I get that, but discipline notwithstanding, AJ is a better bet to age well than almost anyone else because he has both power and speed. Generally those players age better than one dimensional guys.

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Just look at Trout vs AJ.

Trout 2013:.323 .432 .557 .988; 27 HR, 110 BB

AJ 2013: .285 .318 .493 .811; 33 HR, 25 BB

They are pretty close in BA and SLG. The BBs are a huge difference. Obviously you would rather have Trout. The question is whether AJ would sacrifice other parts of his game if he took more walks. That's just it for me. AJ will not even take a walk that is given to him. I am not going to kill AJ over it, but I truly think he could be a Trout or Cabrera level superstar if he could tweak his approach.

Now, AJ never would have struck out looking with the bases loaded like Trout did last night, but Trout was fuming because that really was not a strike. Personally I want the guy with the .432 OBP who absolutely knows the difference between a ball and a strike.

I'm not going to criticize Adam Jones because he's not as good as Mike Trout. Nobody in baseball can meet that standard, at the moment. But, to put things in perspective, Adam is 5th in MLB in fWAR right now. That's how good a year he is having. Yes, I wish he walked more and swung at fewer bad pitches (he is making some progress on the latter, as I pointed out earlier in this thread). But I will live with it.

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I get that, but discipline notwithstanding, AJ is a better bet to age well than almost anyone else because he has both power and speed. Generally those players age better than one dimensional guys.

What do you mean by speed? He doesn't really steal bases and his defensive WAR is usually around replacement level at best, so his speed isn't helping him create a ton of value in that area either.

Jones' value is tied up in his power, and power doesn't age well.

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What do you mean by speed? He doesn't really steal bases and his defensive WAR is usually around replacement level at best' date=' so his speed isn't helping him create a ton of value in that area either.

Jones' value is tied up in his power, and power doesn't age well.[/quote']

Per Fangraphs, he's currently 5th in MLB with 5.0 Baserunning Runs this season - behind Gordon, Revere, Pence and Altuve. And ahead of Billy Hamilton.

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What do you mean by speed? He doesn't really steal bases and his defensive WAR is usually around replacement level at best' date=' so his speed isn't helping him create a ton of value in that area either.

Jones' value is tied up in his power, and power doesn't age well.[/quote']

Pretty myopic IMO.

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Would I rather have AJ keep all of his positive attributes but also walk 140 times a year? Obviously. But that isn't going to happen. Basically, no one in MLB history was a wild swinger at 28 and then became a very patient hitter later on. Plate discipline may incrementally improve with experience, but step changes are rare. Chris Davis going from about 6% walk rate to 12% over a number of years is about as big a jump as you'll see, and that's not exactly been smooth - his overall production has been all over the place. Most people would rather have the '12 version of Davis who didn't walk than the more patient '14 version.

And as much as OBP drives an offense, and there are legitimate reasons to look down on the impatient, there have always been productive players who had an effective strike zone the size of a woolly mammoth. I'm not suggesting Jones is Roberto Clemente, but he's out of the same mold. At 36 Clemente was a very, very good player who still walked in less than 5% of his PAs (26 BB in 553 PAs). He had several seasons where he walked <20 times in nearly full-time play.

In summary... I'm happy AJ is productive despite the warts.

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Per Fangraphs, he's currently 5th in MLB with 5.0 Baserunning Runs this season - behind Gordon, Revere, Pence and Altuve. And ahead of Billy Hamilton.

But you're not suggesting that when his ability at the plate declines, that's okay because his base running will be okay?

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