AJ's approach: Are you fine with it?

[fearthenoodle]

Major League Leaders in fWAR (position players):

Mike Trout 5.6

Troy Tulowitski 5.1

Alex Gordon 4.8

Andrew McCutchen 4.5

Adam Jones 4.2

Do not change a thing, AJ.

[DrungoHazewood]

What do you mean by speed? He doesn't really steal bases and his defensive WAR is usually around replacement level at best' date=' so his speed isn't helping him create a ton of value in that area either.

Jones' value is tied up in his power, and power doesn't age well.[/quote']

Actually, power doesn't age any less gracefully than other attributes. By 33-34 homers and other extra base hits are still at about 90% of peak levels.

And Jones defense has often been rated below average among MLB center fielders. But his (defensive + positional adjustment), which is probably what you're calling defensive WAR, has been a little below average most years and is quite good this year.

Jones' value is tied up in his combination of power, decent average, durability, baserunning (he's been a positive baserunner each year of his career), ability to adequately play a key position, and his reasonable contract.

[DrungoHazewood]

But you're not suggesting that when his ability at the plate declines' date=' that's okay because his base running will be okay?[/quote']

Jones contract runs through age 32, at which point an average player is at an average of 90-couple percent of their peak production. I'm not particularly concerned about his later decline phase, and won't be unless they resign him to a unjustifiable extension.

[Frobby]

What do you mean by speed? He doesn't really steal bases and his defensive WAR is usually around replacement level at best' date=' so his speed isn't helping him create a ton of value in that area either.

Jones' value is tied up in his power, and power doesn't age well.[/quote']

Jones' speed definitely helps him on offense. Fangraphs has him at +5 in baserunning runs, 5th in the AL. He's also 9th in the AL in infield hits, with 15. My issue with OrioleDog's statement is that I don't know what data supports his conclusion that power/speed guys age better than "one dimensional guys."

[MDK02]

It's hard hate AJ's approach when he just single handedly won the game last night. Sometimes I'll have be concerned with his approach when he's chasing pitches and not producing but when he is locked then I'm fine with it. Basically, take the good with the bad.

[Hank Scorpio]

I know baseball's a business, but isn't that a callous way to look at it?

To me, that's just reality. Ask the Phillies and the MFY in a couple years.

[Aristotelian]

Major League Leaders in fWAR (position players):

Mike Trout 5.6

Troy Tulowitski 5.1

Alex Gordon 4.8

Andrew McCutchen 4.5

Adam Jones 4.2

Do not change a thing, AJ.

rWAR has him at #30 MLB at 3.38. I am not sure what the difference is, but rWAR is more in line with his OPS (#35), and I am sorry, I just don't buy AJ as the #5 player in baseball.

I am fine with those who say he should not change his approach, but he is not a transcendent player on the level of Trout. Now, you can say that is an unfair comparison, but I think AJ wants to be that level of player and would welcome the comparison. All I am saying is he should take a walk when it is given to him.

[fat mineman]

It's hard to complain about the guys approach when he has carried us since the break. Twice he's been 2-0 in the first inning and hit a bomb. If he's trying to walk or be in the mold of the red Sox taking lots of pitches, he takes those and the pitcher is back in the count. I think he also had one a few weeks ago where he was 3-0, swung at a ball and then hit a bomb on the 3-1 count.

He can be frustrating to some I understand, but he is the best player on the Orioles, playing under a favourable contract, and he wants to be an oriole. To me, there just is nothing to complain about. We have a stud, let's enjoy it...

[Guest rochester]

Just look at Trout vs AJ.

Trout 2013:.323 .432 .557 .988; 27 HR, 110 BB

AJ 2013: .285 .318 .493 .811; 33 HR, 25 BB

They are pretty close in BA and SLG. The BBs are a huge difference. Obviously you would rather have Trout. The question is whether AJ would sacrifice other parts of his game if he took more walks. That's just it for me. AJ will not even take a walk that is given to him. I am not going to kill AJ over it, but I truly think he could be a Trout or Cabrera level superstar if he could tweak his approach.

Now, AJ never would have struck out looking with the bases loaded like Trout did last night, but Trout was fuming because that really was not a strike. Personally I want the guy with the .432 OBP who absolutely knows the difference between a ball and a strike.

The really sad part about this is that there would be some on here who would have complained about Trout keeping the bat on his shoulders. Whether it was a strike or not is not relevant - it was close enough. I could see "Yea, the .432 OBP is great but what good is it when he sits there looking at strike three with the bases loaded." Then, there would be this discussion about how he may become a bit arrogant and say things he just shouldn't say.

[Frobby]

To me, that's just reality. Ask the Phillies and the MFY in a couple years.

I think people sometimes get a bit too hung on the age thing. I don't want an entire team of guys who are 33+, but there are plenty of players in the 33-37 age range or so who are still above average players, even if they aren't as good as they were at 25-30. Some people act as though players are washed up the minute their age starts with a "3," and that just isn't so. To cite a very obvious example when talking about Jones, Torii Hunter was a very good player through age 38. He got a big contract with the Angels going into his age 32 season (5 years, $79.5 mm), and per fangraphs, he just about earned it (he was worth $75mm). Obviously, not every player ages as well as Hunter did. Jones may or may not, and that is too far in the future for me to worry about right now. I'll worry about it in 2017 when he's a year away from free agency.

[atomic]

He is the best player on the team. Yeah if his OBP were higher and his average stayed the same and his slugging stayed the same he could be a Mike Trout type player but who is to say if he less selective his average and slugging don't go down? If it isn't broke don't fix it.

[atomic]

It's hard to complain about the guys approach when he has carried us since the break. Twice he's been 2-0 in the first inning and hit a bomb. If he's trying to walk or be in the mold of the red Sox taking lots of pitches, he takes those and the pitcher is back in the count. I think he also had one a few weeks ago where he was 3-0, swung at a ball and then hit a bomb on the 3-1 count.

He can be frustrating to some I understand, but he is the best player on the Orioles, playing under a favourable contract, and he wants to be an oriole. To me, there just is nothing to complain about. We have a stud, let's enjoy it...

He is also the team leader. I don't think there is much to complain about in Adam. Some people are just never happy about anyone.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think people sometimes get a bit too hung on the age thing. I don't want an entire team of guys who are 33+, but there are plenty of players in the 33-37 age range or so who are still above average players, even if they aren't as good as they were at 25-30. Some people act as though players are washed up the minute their age starts with a "3," and that just isn't so. To cite a very obvious example when talking about Jones, Torii Hunter was a very good player through age 38. He got a big contract with the Angels going into his age 32 season (5 years, $79.5 mm), and per fangraphs, he just about earned it (he was worth $75mm). Obviously, not every player ages as well as Hunter did. Jones may or may not, and that is too far in the future for me to worry about right now. I'll worry about it in 2017 when he's a year away from free agency.

To add to this, I don't know of any evidence that players with poor plate discipline age better or worse than those with good plate discipline. You can find a fair number of players out of the Adam Jones mold who had very long careers. I mentioned Clemente. Andre Dawson is another example. Miguel Tejada, at 35, hit .313 with 46 doubles, had a 110 OPS+, made the All Star team, got some down-ballot MVP support... and walked a completely unacceptable 19 times in 685 PAs. Marquis Grissom was still a pretty good outfielder at 36, despite 20 walks in over 600 PAs. And, of course, Vlad had less than 500 unintentional walks in his entire 16-year career yet was pretty productive right up until the moment the Orioles acquired him.

[Mayor McCheese]

Just look at Trout vs AJ.

Trout 2013:.323 .432 .557 .988; 27 HR, 110 BB

AJ 2013: .285 .318 .493 .811; 33 HR, 25 BB

They are pretty close in BA and SLG. The BBs are a huge difference. Obviously you would rather have Trout. The question is whether AJ would sacrifice other parts of his game if he took more walks. That's just it for me. AJ will not even take a walk that is given to him. I am not going to kill AJ over it, but I truly think he could be a Trout or Cabrera level superstar if he could tweak his approach.

Now, AJ never would have struck out looking with the bases loaded like Trout did last night, but Trout was fuming because that really was not a strike. Personally I want the guy with the .432 OBP who absolutely knows the difference between a ball and a strike.

Wait a minute...

a .285 BA is close to a .323 ?!?!?!..... No way in hell man... Trouts numbers in 2013 were MVP like, Jones not even close.

[Aristotelian]

Wait a minute...

a .285 BA is close to a .323 ?!?!?!..... No way in hell man... Trouts numbers in 2013 were MVP like, Jones not even close.

You are right, I am overstating their similarities. That said, .038 points of BA is maybe 20 hits over 162 games. The two are in the same ballpark, whereas in BB it is a massive-order-of-magnitude difference.