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Duquette owes it to the team and City to go for it...


mskrulz

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This team is showing signs that it may be special and no longer should the primary goal be to win the East. Who knows how many opportunities we are going to have to win a World Series. We need to do what it takes to beat the A's, Angels, and Tigers. We should be in on every big name and/or any player that could be a difference maker. Aside from Gausman nothing is off limits in the right deal. I love Harvey and Bundy but how many guys have we seen like this flame out in time.

Come on Dan, you owe it to us. 1983 was a long time ago!

All in!!!

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We will have about a 20% chance of winning the World Series if we win the division with our current roster and about 25% maximum if we gut the minors for a couple big pick ups. I'm fine with the 20% chance and keep the guys in the minors. The postseason is a crapshoot.

So, if we trade for a guy like Sale, Shields, Price (I know it's not gonna happen), our chances only go up 5%???

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We will have about a 20% chance of winning the World Series if we win the division with our current roster and about 25% maximum if we gut the minors for a couple big pick ups. I'm fine with the 20% chance and keep the guys in the minors. The postseason is a crapshoot.

It might be a crapshoot but teams with the best pitching usually come out on top.

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I am looking for substained success...nothing DD and Buck have done so far has indicated that they will mortgage the future for the present. Instead of giving ouselves a great opportunity at this World Series, lets give ourselves a great opportunity for the next 10 World Series.

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I think DD will take a shot at Jon Lester. He's a TOR quality starter and both the O's and Red Sox know he's going to resign with the Sox after the year - so its would be a true 2 month rental, which should keep the price reasonable. The O's don't have to mortgage the future but they get the arm they so desperately need. The Sox get to grab something useful from a divisional competitor without having to worry about facing Lester long term in a divisional rivals colors.

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He owes it to the fans to not mortgage the future to give the team a slightly better chance to succeed this season.

I'm not talking about mortgaging future for a small time player but if you could honestly make a play for a Price, Lester, Sale, Shields, you wouldn't be willing to give up a Harvey or a Bundy? This team has so many question marks going forward (Cruz, Davis, Wieters, Markakis, Chen etc...) and has proven that it can win on the road and beat good teams. You don't take a chance on trading a minor league stud (I can name tons that haven't panned out) for a chance to win it all??? Anyone of those guys would pitch Game One in any playoff series and give us a great shot to win atleast 2 games.

I'm all in. Nobody remembers the okay teams. We all remember 1966, 1970, and 1983.

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If theres one thing Ive learned this season its this.....we succeed against good pitchers. No reason to believe we wont in the playoffs.

If a team wants to beat us, their best bet is to keep a couple rookie pitchers on their playoff roster.

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I am looking for substained success...nothing DD and Buck have done so far has indicated that they will mortgage the future for the present. Instead of giving ouselves a great opportunity at this World Series, lets give ourselves a great opportunity for the next 10 World Series.

A great chance with all of those unknown's moving forward? You think one guy (Harvey or Bundy) which would be the center piece to any deal would be enough to give us a GREAT opportunity??? No! We have a great opportunity now!

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I think DD will take a shot at Jon Lester. He's a TOR quality starter and both the O's and Red Sox know he's going to resign with the Sox after the year - so its would be a true 2 month rental, which should keep the price reasonable. The O's don't have to mortgage the future but they get the arm they so desperately need. The Sox get to grab something useful from a divisional competitor without having to worry about facing Lester long term in a divisional rivals colors.

I don't think he is going to be resigned by the Red Sox. Yankees will sign him.

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So, if we trade for a guy like Sale, Shields, Price (I know it's not gonna happen), our chances only go up 5%???

Yes, probably. For example, go through Tom Tippett's analysis of the 2002 playoffs. The spread between the best and worst teams is less than 15%, between 20% or so for the very, very best teams, and 6-7% for the guys who just squeaked in. Acquiring a top pitcher probably moves the O's from a 88-90 win team to a 93-95 win team over a full season, in round numbers. I wouldn't want to argue more than that. So that might move the playoff needle 5%.

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Well I mean if it's for a guy like Chris Sale that can help the team for years to come then sure, send 'em Bundy and Harvey... but don't give 'em anything special for a 2 month rental.

Agreed, I would always trade prospects for proven talent..

Its much more likely that Bundy or Harvey will be nothing special then superstars.

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There are now three rounds of playoffs, four if entering as a wild card team. Even a dominant team can't have more than a 30-40% entering the playoffs.

I'd be surprised if you ran the numbers and had a 110-win true talent team, essentially the theoretical limit of how good a team could be, with more than 1-in-3 chance of winning the playoffs.

Even if you had three aces you'd be hard pressed to get to 50%. I don't think you could do it. The top five pitchers in the AL by rWAR (Sale, Hernandez, Kluber, Tanaka, Richards), their teams lose about 1/3rd of the time they start (they're 66-32). And that's starting more than half their games against sub-.500 teams.

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