Was ERod too much for Andrew Miller

[Reboulet'sStache]

Keith Law in a nutshell:

-When the O's trade away a minor leaguer: "They really lost a good prospect here."

-When the O's acquire a minor leaguer: "He's okay, but he's not on my top 100."

I mean, am I wrong?

Don't think so. Law has been a huge supporter of ERod, and nobody is higher on Harvey than Law.

[Tony-OH]

I'm not speaking one way or another on Keith's evaluative capabilities, but the quote in Weams' post is Melewski citing a Baseball America piece, with the actual quote coming from an AL scout. So, to be clear, you are calling the scout quoted by BA disingenuous and not Keith.

Got it thanks! it looked like it was coming from Klaw, who I respect but don't always agree with. So, saying that, the scout in question is the one I was talking about then, not Klaw.

[Stotle]

Fair enough. Although I bet if I compiled all of Law's Orioles-related quotes, I wouldn't be too far off. The guy is about a jaded and bitter ex-scout as I have ever seen.

Keith Law basically hates your team, whatever team that may be. It's Law's Law.

He was never a scout -- FO assistant and the analytics side.

[Redskins Rick]

He was never a scout -- FO assistant and the analytics side.

wiki says he worked for the Blue Jays and did major and minor league scouting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Law

[PA724_Oriole]

So Stotle. What is your duties of the OH scouting Contributor? Just curious.

[PA724_Oriole]

wiki says he worked for the Blue Jays and did major and minor league scouting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Law

You believe everything you read on wiki?

Not saying that is wrong, but there can be a lot of BS on there.

[Stotle]

So Stotle. What is your duties of the OH scouting Contributor? Just curious.

I don't have any duties. I think they changed that tag just to note I have experience in player evaluation.

[Stotle]

wiki says he worked for the Blue Jays and did major and minor league scouting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Law

Mmmmm, not a scout. The source from the Wiki page is an article Keith wrote describing his duties, which included some scouting assignments. Read the source article. In any event, he knows about player evaluation, and that has been his focus at ESPN, so I'm certainly not saying he isn't credible. But a special assignment scout is like the most sought after job in the game on the scouting side. That's not what Keith was doing (if it was he'd still be doing it).

[PA724_Oriole]

I don't have any duties. I think they changed that tag just to note I have experience in player evaluation.

Oh where did you do that at? Or who for?

[Stotle]

Oh where did you do that at? Or who for?

Associate scout work for a major league team before being hired to work in scouting/prospect department at a major baseball media outlet. Attorney by day.

[PA724_Oriole]

Associate scout work for a major league team before being hired to work in scouting/prospect department at a major baseball media outlet. Attorney by day.

Oh. That's awesome.

So I've been reading some if your posts but it's hard for me to exact see where you stand on the whole "should we have traded for Price or Lester".

Are you for or against them not making other moves or are you neutral?

[DrungoHazewood]

So you're telling me that if the numbers stated we would be worse had we traded Lough for Price straight up, you wouldn't do it?

Ppls predictions of our playoff odds are as useless as our opinions on trades. They pretty much mean didly squat.

They might be real. But it doesn't mean the numbers dictate what actually happens on the field.

I don't even know what you're arguing now. The Price/Lough bit is nonsensical, and who thinks odds dictate what happens? Huh?

[DrungoHazewood]

All im saying is that the road to the WS just got that much tougher based on what other teams did and what the Os didnt.

If you disagree with that then this argument/debate is ppl arguing for the sake of arguing.

And if you agree then you somewhat have to agree that making a trade for Price or Lester would have greatly increased our chances.

The whole.thing comes down to, you don't like the rush of losing Bundy for Price or Lester. Whereas I think pretty much the opposite.

And I think its fair to say no matter how much of and what we ttpe, no ones opinions are changing.

The issue here is what "that much tougher" means. And there's no way you can rationally look at the facts and conclude that the Orioles', or any other team's, odds shifted more than a few percentage points. You can argue how much those few percent are worth in money and risk and future wins, but there's no changing them. Even under the most outlandish assumptions you couldn't conclude that the Tigers were now a prohibitive favorite to win it all, or that the Orioles odds collapsed.

[Stotle]

Oh. That's awesome.

So I've been reading some if your posts but it's hard for me to exact see where you stand on the whole "should we have traded for Price or Lester".

Are you for or against them not making other moves or are you neutral?

Depends on the cost. I do not think Miller is likely to have as large an impact as some are projecting, but I get wanting to add to bullpen depth and especially from the left side. I can see both sides of the argument, and for me it comes down to how Miller performs and how Baltimore uses him. If they miss the playoffs altogether I think the trade will be a spectacular failure. Otherwise, I don't have a huge issue with it.

Lester/Price, I'm fine with Baltimore sitting out. I would have liked to see some sort of move to bring in more offense, but it sounds like it would have taken something pretty creative considering what was and wasn't on the market.

[PA724_Oriole]

Ok ciol.

I have I've Kat question for anyone who actually knows. I dont want an opinionated answer.

Hypothetically we traded

Bundy

Flaherty

Lough

To me that proposal is the equivalent to if not better than what they actually got.

We receive David Price. If it's correct that Price is under control through 2015.

Why not trade for him then deal him at next year's deadline to bring back what we lost.

Therefore he would have been a full years worth rental. And ended up bringing us something back if we traded him next year. On top of being a possible piece that helps us hoist the trophy.

Wouldnt that be a win win? Would that not make the most sense?