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vs. BLUE JAYS, 8/05


OFFNY

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maybe it really was the AL west pitching that had our O struggling.

I hate to sound like a homer but I really do think it did play a role. Seattle, Anaheim, and Oakland all have really good staffs. Now part of it was honest slumping but those are some good staffs too.

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I hate to sound like a homer but I really do think it did play a role. Seattle, Anaheim, and Oakland all have really good staffs. Now part of it was honest slumping but those are some good staffs too.

But we faced good pitchers yesterday and today too.

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o

DOWN ON THE AAA FARM

********************

18 OUTS: 6 Flyouts, 4 Groundouts, 3 Strikeouts, 2 Popouts, 2 Lineouts, 1 Picked Off of 1st Base

TYLER WILSON O (vs. AAA-Buffalo, 8/05)

IP:. 6

H:o 5 (1 Home Run, 3 Doubles, 1 Single)

R:O 2

BB: 1

SO: 3

Pitches: 91 (59 Strikes, 32 Balls)

2014 ERA: 3.21 (AAA-Norfolk)

PITCHES BY INNING

*****************

17 (10 Strikes, 71 Balls)

27 (16 Strikes, 11 Balls)

71 (61 Strikes, 11 Balls)

10 (71 Strikes, 31 Balls)

15 (11 Strikes, 41 Balls)

15 (91 Strikes, 61 Balls)

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But we faced good pitchers yesterday and today too.

Right, that's why I don't think it was just the AL West. But I've said it a few times already. I really do feel like I saw signs that the team was breaking out of it on Saturday night which funnily enough was a loss.

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I hate to sound like a homer but I really do think it did play a role. Seattle, Anaheim, and Oakland all have really good staffs. Now part of it was honest slumping but those are some good staffs too.

Na. It's Mr. Crowley.

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To answer the question of whether Valencia should have caught Davis' foul ball and let the run score:

Win probability, home team down by 5, road team has bases loaded, 1 out, 8th inning: 1.1%

Win probability, home team down by 6, road team has 1st and 2nd, 2 outs, 8th inning: 0.9%

So by catching the ball (if you assume that the run was certain to score), the Blue Jay's chances of winning dropped from 1.1% to 0.9%. A very slight, but not zero, change. So looking at it that way, he should have let it drop.

If there was some reasonable chance that the runner wouldn't tag up, or that maybe Valencia could have had some chance to throw him out, the numbers would be different.

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