Jump to content

Maybe l'm out of line but


dscola

Recommended Posts

He will be on the other side of 30 with his next contract. How much health can we count on if he signs an extension? If 0.0 WAR is what we can expect when he's dealing with some minor issues that aren't enough to keep him out of the lineup, then why should we give him $10-14M/year?

Minor issues? He had surgery for a broken bone in his hand that kept him from training during the entire offseason. I wouldn't call that minor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 92
  • Created
  • Last Reply
A "numbers" guy would argue that the numbers help to explain the inexplicable.

Your AS catcher is out since May.

Your AS third missed the first month and then some more games later on.

Your AS first isn't hitting above the mendoza line.

Your prized SP acquisition isn't paying off.

Your closer bombed and was replaced by somebody barely on the roster last season.

Your AS Shortstop is batting well, but not hitting home runs for some unknown reason.

So tell me, the numbers really explain this? :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems to me that the inhabitants of this board are slaves to numbers. I agree, that numbers are very useful but not in every instance.

Speaking as a lurker and occasional poster, it seems that it's difficult for some of you to just "enjoy the ride."

Case in point: Some of you spend all day talking about how some statistic states that Markakis is slow and is below average defensively yet, all I ever see is him making play after play. All I see are posts about what fangraphs and war says.

I may not be making a lot of sense to some but my point is, just enjoy the trip.

I don't think you're out of line - I just don't think you understand statistics. The numbers/statistics are just measurements of past performance. Granted, fielding metrics are harder to measure than offensive metrics, but they continue to get better and they are valuable tools in evaluating expected performance. That doesn't mean that a sub par fielder won't make an extraordinary play from time to time any more than it means that David Lough won't hit a home run every once in awhile... but if you were betting on who would hit one in any given game the smart money would be on Nelson Cruz rather than David Lough.

There are always outliers and that's part of what makes the game so fun and interesting for me. Just think of two years ago and the Orioles record in one run games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My first love was math, my second baseball and my third my girlfriend of 6 years. Ok, my mom and the Ninja Turtles are also on that list; but you get the point: we can incorporate everything.

My background includes multiple degrees in math/stat, being a college catcher, and stints as a high school and college baseball coach. I trust my eyes more than numbers, but the numbers don't lie. Figure that out ;)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think you're out of line - I just don't think you understand statistics. The numbers/statistics are just measurements of past performance. Granted, fielding metrics are harder to measure than offensive metrics, but they continue to get better and they are valuable tools in evaluating expected performance. That doesn't mean that a sub par fielder won't make an extraordinary play from time to time any more than it means that David Lough won't hit a home run every once in awhile... but if you were betting on who would hit one in any given game the smart money would be on Nelson Cruz rather than David Lough.

There are always outliers and that's part of what makes the game so fun and interesting for me. Just think of two years ago and the Orioles record in one run games.

I understand statistics just fine. I just don't think they're the end all be all. If I say Markakis made a great catch, what's the point of sabremetrics guy with a condescending attitude telling me, "well his fwar says otherwise." or, "still doesn't mean he's anything but below average."

I know stats have their place, believe me I do. But they aren't gospel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand statistics just fine. I just don't think they're the end all be all. If I say Markakis made a great catch, what's the point of sabremetrics guy with a condescending attitude telling me, "well his fwar says otherwise." or, "still doesn't mean he's anything but below average."

I know stats have their place, believe me I do. But they aren't gospel.

Come on now. Were you in the game thread last night, and did anyone really bring up fWAR or UZR after Nick's catch?

EDIT: Nope, just cheering (although some people took the time to mock Jeter and Pedroia, which I respect).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you never played the game because you couldn't and therefore can't speak from the authority of experience, you need numbers to give you any credibility. Indeed the eye test is biased, but so are the numbers. They assume anything that can't be explained by metrics are of little consequence. This tedious and endless argument of numbers v eye test, what ever, is silly. They both should exist to compliment each other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand statistics just fine. I just don't think they're the end all be all. If I say Markakis made a great catch, what's the point of sabremetrics guy with a condescending attitude telling me, "well his fwar says otherwise." or, "still doesn't mean he's anything but below average."

I know stats have their place, believe me I do. But they aren't gospel.

Said no one on this board ever.

For my own side, I find the folks that ignore stats to be rather more rude and condescending then the sabremetric guys. Afterall the saber guys are actively seeking to learn more about the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My background includes multiple degrees in math/stat, being a college catcher, and stints as a high school and college baseball coach. I trust my eyes more than numbers, but the numbers don't lie. Figure that out ;)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Did I accidentally stumble upon careerbuilder.com?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...