Nice ESPN article on Jones and Markakis

[VeveJones007]

Usually, ALDS, ALCS and WS, depend on stellar pitching and stellar defense with timely hitting.

They are not usual slugfests.

They are incredibly small sample sizes. Losing a player of Manny's caliber over the course of 162 seriously hurts a team, but the variance of 3 to 19 games is so wide that losing him may not matter in the slightest. That's the point I was trying to make.

Would I feel better if he were healthy and out there? Absolutely. But just like anyone, he could have gone 2-20 in the ALDS and play average defense over five games.

[schittenden]

That might be close to his market value IF there is someone who will pay him that besides the Orioles.

I mean look at how much Kemp is getting paid. Their numbers are very similar, in part, because Kemp has been hurt a lot the last few years and missed a lot of games. Of course, I'd argue that Markakis was still recovering from his wrist injury in 2013, given his return to form this year. The power numbers aren't tremendous this year, but he's already hit more HR and more doubles than last year with a month to play.

[schittenden]

They are incredibly small sample sizes. Losing a player of Manny's caliber over the course of 162 seriously hurts a team, but the variance of 3 to 19 games is so wide that losing him may not matter in the slightest. That's the point I was trying to make.

I think it's a valid point. I think the Hangouters and talking heads, to some extent, wanted to put a fork in the Orioles as soon as Manny was lost for the season. My only point in my original post was that someone in the media didn't seem to think so.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It really only costs the O's $15.5 million to keep Nick, since they have to pay him $2 million if they decline his option. Not a huge difference, but it makes it a little easier to keep him.

[schittenden]

I know this isn't supposed to a be a Nick Markakis contract thread, but aren't all of them now? How about 2/$27 with a club option for a third year at $14m with a $2m buyout?

[Nigel Tufnel]

Your logic eludes me. The option is for 17.5M. That's how much it costs to keep him. I guess you are considering the $2 million part of that salary a sunk cost.

Well, duh.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It's not a sunk cost if they negotiate a new deal.

Option 1 - Pay the 2M buyout and say good luck and farewell.

Option 2 - Pick up the option for 17.5M

Option 3 - Negotiate a new contract and don't pay the buyout.

They can also decline his option and then give him a qualifying offer. I was just pointing out that the difference between Option 1 and Option 2 is $15.5 million.

[schittenden]

It's not a sunk cost if they negotiate a new deal.

Option 1 - Pay the 2M buyout and say good luck and farewell.

Option 2 - Pick up the option for 17.5M

Option 3 - Negotiate a new contract and don't pay the buyout.

Yeah, I guess it depends upon what you think the options are. If they can't come to an agreement on Option 3, then your choices are only 1 or 2.

[schittenden]

They can also decline his option and then give him a qualifying offer. I was just pointing out that the difference between Option 1 and Option 2 is $15.5 million.

I don't think declining the option and making a qualifying offer would save much money. I assume (without knowing) that they'd have to pay the buyout in such a circumstance?

[Nigel Tufnel]

I don't think declining the option and making a qualifying offer would save much money. I assume (without knowing) that they'd have to pay the buyout in such a circumstance?

Right, they would have to pay the $2 million, but the qualifying offer would probably be less than $15.5 million (although not by much). You'd really only do that if you didn't want Nick back, but were convinced that he'd turn it down and you'd get a draft pick. I think Nick can also void all the options - you'd definitely give him a qualifying offer then, since you'd know he would turn it down.

[Can_of_corn]

Right, they would have to pay the $2 million, but the qualifying offer would probably be less than $15.5 million (although not by much). You'd really only do that if you didn't want Nick back, but were convinced that he'd turn it down and you'd get a draft pick. I think Nick can also void all the options - you'd definitely give him a qualifying offer then, since you'd know he would turn it down.

It's tricky. If you want Nick back long term and you know he won't take the QO then offering it to him could serve to lower the cost of retaining him since the competition have to add the cost of the draft pick.

[Redskins Rick]

It's tricky. If you want Nick back long term and you know he won't take the QO then offering it to him could serve to lower the cost of retaining him since the competition have to add the cost of the draft pick.

I think some teams would be more inclined to go after Nick, without the attachment of spending a comp pick.

[Redskins Rick]

James Loney, 3 years 21 million. Different position but this is a close comp for Markakis offensively. Markakis has had the better career but now they are pretty close. Both are 30 years old. Markakis might get more (especially from his home team) but I doubt that it's a lot more.

Bill James is on record saying most ball players have their best years from 30-32.

[webbrick2010]

I think the O's will sign 2 of the three (Markakis, Hardy, Cruz). I expect it will be Hardy and Markakis

They will work on a multi year deal, but I think they will pick up the option if they can't get the deal done. I think the option is the best option considering how Nick is now on the wrong side of 30.

[BohKnowsBmore]

James Loney, 3 years 21 million. Different position but this is a close comp for Markakis offensively. Markakis has had the better career but now they are pretty close. Both are 30 years old. Markakis might get more (especially from his home team) but I doubt that it's a lot more.

I disagree. Markakis's 40 point advantage in OPS in 2014 is consistent with his 40 point advantage in career OPS. Further, his bat plays much better with what he offers in RF vs. playing 1B and DH. They don't look nearly as close if you feel comfortable giving a bit of a pass to Nick for his 2013 season based on injury or whatever it may have been. He had an .834 OPS in 2012, while Loney hasn't had an OPS north of .800 since 2007. I think Nick is clearly more valuable than Loney, but that's JMO.