Nice ESPN article on Jones and Markakis

[Frobby]

I got this.

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Name[/td]

[td]WAR for 3 years prior[/td]

[td]Age in 1st yr of contract[/td]

[td]Years[/td]

[td]AAV[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Curtis Granderson[/td]

[td]9.6[/td]

[td]33[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Swisher[/td]

[td]9.6[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]14[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Michael Bourn[/td]

[td]14.7[/td]

[td]30[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]12[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Carlos Beltran[/td]

[td]10.9[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Shane Victorino[/td]

[td]11[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Cody Ross[/td]

[td]3.9[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]3[/td]

[td]8.67[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Angel Pagan[/td]

[td]10.4[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]10[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Markakis[/td]

[td]~3.5[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td][/td]

[td][/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

I'd be alright with giving Nick something like 3/30-33 because I like the guy and who else can we count on for an OBP over .320? But he isn't that good. Giving him 12M or more per year is an overpay. He's a solid outfielder. No more, no less.

Pretty interesting chart. It's funny to me that Nick's 3-year WAR looks so feeble compared to these guys, yet I think this is a pretty reasonable set of comps for salary purposes. Is there anyone out there who actually thinks that Nick is going to be paid less, or get fewer years, than Cody Ross? That pretty much sets the floor so far as I'm concerned. Nick will earn considerably more than that.

[weams]

Upton is a CF, and was a couple of years younger than Nick. Playing a solid CF counts for a lot. Crisp also plays a credible CF. Nick will get 3 years, maybe 4. He will get somewhere between $8-13 mm/yr, depending on the length of the deal and how the rest of this season plays out.

Brady and Peter Angelos were friends. Nick is a valued employee.

[Frobby]

If Crisp got 11m per., I don't see Nick getting less.

Depends how many years. Crisp is a pretty good player, worth 30.3 rWAR in his career, and as I said, the ability to play CF carries a pretty significant premium.

[weams]

Depends how many years. Crisp is a pretty good player, worth 30.3 rWAR in his career, and as I said, the ability to play CF carries a pretty significant premium.

I am so glad we have Jones.

[Frobby]

One thing to keep in mind with Nick: he is one year away from being a 10-and-5 guy who cannot be traded without his consent, if he is still with the Orioles. So you have to realize that if you give him a four-year deal, you won't be able to lay him off on some other team after next year if you decide that's the prudent thing to do. I think that's one reason why his contract, if with the Orioles, is more likely to be three years than four.

[Frobby]

I am so glad we have Jones.

Being set in CF is pretty huge.

[wildcard]

Depends how many years. Crisp is a pretty good player, worth 30.3 rWAR in his career, and as I said, the ability to play CF carries a pretty significant premium.

Crisp has good range for a CF but not that great an arm. Nick has the arm. 10 assists so far this year. That is important for a rightfielder.

[Frobby]

Crisp has good range for a CF but not that great an arm. Nick has the arm. 10 assists so far this year. That is important for a rightfielder.

Doesn't matter. CF > RF, unless you are a really bad CF.

I think one of Nick's big selling points, highly underrated here, is his durability and reliability. Like Buck says, he always "posts up." Of all players in the majors who have been active since Nick's rookie year, Nick ranks fifth in games played. The four ahead of him are Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro Suzuki and Robinson Cano.

[Can_of_corn]

Doesn't matter. CF > RF, unless you are a really bad CF.

I think one of Nick's big selling points, highly underrated here, is his durability and reliability. Like Buck says, he always "posts up." Of all players in the majors who have been active since Nick's rookie year, Nick ranks fifth in games played. The four ahead of him are Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro Suzuki and Robinson Cano.

Except his notoriously weak hamate bones.

[Prayin4Reign]

No way you allocate 17.5M of your payroll to Nick Markakis next year.

I think we underestimate his value and what he means to the team.

I think if the Orioles pick up the option and extend him a couple years at $10 million a season, that'd be a fair deal. Nick still gets his big payday, and then things get more palatable in the 2016 and 2017 seasons. 3 years, 37 million. I think it's fair. His agent however may want more.

If the Orioles decided for whatever reason to cut ties with Nick (it's not going to happen) he'd have teams lining up to give him his next contract.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I think if the Orioles pick up the option and extend him a couple years at $10 million a season, that'd be a fair deal. Nick still gets his big payday, and then things get more palatable in the 2016 and 2017 seasons. 3 years, 37 million. I think it's fair. His agent however may want more.

I'm not sure he is worth that much right now, but going forward, he can't decline at all in those 3 years to be worth that contract. You're talking about a guy that has a combined WAR of 1.3 over the last two years.

[Frobby]

I'm not sure he is worth that much right now' date=' but going forward, he can't decline at all in those 3 years to be worth that contract. You're talking about a guy that has a combined WAR of 1.3 over the last two years.[/quote']

You are putting too much weight on the worst year of his career.

[Reboulet'sStache]

You are putting too much weight on the worst year of his career.

He has a 1.6 WAR this year. How much weight should we give this year?

[Frobby]

He has a 1.6 WAR this year. How much weight should we give this year?

I'd say this season is about what I'd expect from Markakis. Pay him to do about that for the next three years, discounted just a tad. Assume 4.5 - 6 WAR over the next three seasons.

[25 Nuggets]

I'd say this season is about what I'd expect from Markakis. Pay him to do about that for the next three years, discounted just a tad. Assume 4.5 - 6 WAR over the next three seasons.

So, does 3/$30 accomplish that?