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Olney On Qualifying Offer Candidates


Greg

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Apples & Oranges IMO, for no other reason that I consider Manny's injuries much more serious. Plus, JJ has played 134 of 152 games - the most in the infield - Manny? 82. Having the same surgery on the other knee isn't an endorsement that everything will be fine, plus, you never know how someone will respond or what the future holds. If the second surgery took place last year and he was on the field for as many games as JJ then, IMO, your point has more merit, i.e., switching Manny to SS (btw who is going to play 3B) immediately just does not make a lot of sense to me. Let Hardy go then Manny gets hurt again then what do you do.

Manny's injuries are hopefully fixed by surgery. Hardy's injuries are being played through.

I think Hardy's are more likely to make a reappearance.

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Manny's injuries are hopefully fixed by surgery. Hardy's injuries are being played through.

I think Hardy's are more likely to make a reappearance.

As an Oriole, Hardy has been worth about $17 mm/yr, per fangraphs, and $19.2 mm this year. He can afford to decline a bit and miss some games with injuries and still be a very valuable player.

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Nick has played his way out of that good of a contract over the last 5 weeks.
I think it is difficult to pay a 1.4 WAR guy at Nick's age 3/$36M. Nick is the indeed the kind of guy worth overpaying, but that's too much. I also think Nick's performance does not deserve a guaranteed three year deal, but two plus an option.

Yup...this is the point I was trying to make. Nick has shown a definitive loss of power and he's got to be one of the slowest guys on the team now. He's played better defense this season...even if it doesn't show that in dWAR. To me, he's an average player. Certainly not worth a three year deal...and certainly not worth more than 11M per season.

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I would like for the O's to offer JJ a 2 year 26 mil contract with an option for a 3rd and then we can continue to watch the best left side of the infield in baseball play for us. (Of course this is when Manny plays)

But why would Hardy take two years? This is his last chance at a payday. For the past 3 years he's been getting paid less than his on-field performance would dictate. If you're Hardy you are looking for 3 years guaranteed at minimum.

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But why would Hardy take two years? This is his last chance at a payday. For the past 3 years he's been getting paid less than his on-field performance would dictate. If you're Hardy you are looking for 3 years guaranteed at minimum.

You just have to look at Jhonny Peralta. He may take the QO, but he could end up getting a lot on the open market.

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How much was Roberts worth in 2009?

I hate this kind of logic. Pick a player about the same age as Hardy who didn't live up to his long term deal, and cite that as some sort of proof that Hardy will fail, too. Never mind that the player you chose suffered a self-inflicted head injury, totally fluky and unrelated to his age, that cost him two years of his career. (I will grant you, he had some other injuries that were arguably more age-related.)

Derek Jeter was worth 15.2 WAR from ages 28-31 (Hardy's age the last four years), then worth 18.9 WAR from ages 32-35. There, we're even.

Sigh, I guess I will have to do this again...from a post I made in January and have reposted at least twice before:

Here are a couple of really good studies of how infield range and efficiency declines with age:

Camden Depot: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2010...urves.html?m=1

Tom Tango: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-aging-curves/

Both studies show that range and/or efficiency declines pretty significantly between peak (age 27-28) and 32. In the Camden Depot study, SS defense declined about 1.4 wins in that period, and there wasn't enough data to reach conclusions about SS over age 32. In Tango's study, the rate of drop in range/efficiency actually slowed significantly between ages 32-34, dropping only about 7 plays (probably about half a win) during that three year stretch.

I have done some anectdotal looking at a number of shortstops who had high similarity ratings through age 30 (the two Alex Gonzalez's, Orlando Cabrera) and some elite guys (Ripken, Jeter, Tejada, Vizquel), and overall their defensive value held up very well through age 34.

My bottom line is that I don't expect Hardy to be as good at ages 32-34 (2015-17) as he was at ages 28-30 (the three years we've had him so far). But Hardy has been elite for those three years, and I think he's got 2-3 more years of being significantly above average and then he'll be average for a bit. He's been worth 11.2 rWAR (6.1 dWAR), 10.3 fWAR (27.2 UZR) in those three years. Put him down for 6-9 WAR from 2015-17 and pay him accordingly.

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I know I've mentioned this a few times, and no one ever responds to it, but I'll try again.

Should they play the 2015 season as an Oriole, both Markakis and Hardy will have earned the right to block any trade. I can't believe the O's want to put themselves in that position on a multi-year deal with either of them.

As for replacing Nick, I'd be happy starting the year with an outfield of De Aza, Jones, and Pearce.

As for replacing Hardy, I'd move Manny to SS and fill 3B.

That might mean Flaherty has to start at SS for a month or two, but we've already seen that we can live with that. Manny's knee "injury" surgeries were actually corrections to deformities in his knees. They've been fixed. Was he slowed down one bit after recovery this year? No, and since his surgery was a month earlier this season, he should be ready to participate in 3 or 4 weeks of spring training. He was a SS coming up until they moved him to 3B at age 20 by bringing him up after never starting a game at 3B in the minors. I have no doubt about his ability to play SS.

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I hate this kind of logic. Pick a player about the same age as Hardy who didn't live up to his long term deal, and cite that as some sort of proof that Hardy will fail, too. Never mind that the player you chose suffered a self-inflicted head injury, totally fluky and unrelated to his age, that cost him two years of his career. (I will grant you, he had some other injuries that were arguably more age-related.)

Derek Jeter was worth 15.2 WAR from ages 28-31 (Hardy's age the last four years), then worth 18.9 WAR from ages 32-35. There, we're even.

Sigh, I guess I will have to do this again...from a post I made in January and have reposted at least twice before:

Sigh.

It is still a valid point that a team with the O's financial constraints needs to be careful with long term deals and over 30 middle infielders who are CURRENTLY suffering back issues are, to me, a bit too risky.

Hardy's back isn't fixed. He got a cortisone shot so he could play through it. That's two this season.

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A question: While shortstop requires more movement, third base requires extremely quick reactions, so would ss actually be better for Manny's knees than 3b?

Until I thought of that I was 100% in the keep Manny at 3b because of his injuries, but now I'm wondering.

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I doubt the O's make any decisions this offseason contingent on Manny's being able to play SS in 2015. They'll probably try to negotiate a reasonable extension with Hardy and failing that trade for a stop gap good field no hit SS. As for Nick they will probably try to do the same but they will be ready to pick up a short term replacement to go in the mix with Pearce, and De Aza, and Jones

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