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Olney On Qualifying Offer Candidates


Greg

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It's not just injury concerns. Hardy is getting to be about the age that you expect to start seeing a decline even if he was healthy.

Agreed, but how much of a decline? He's at a very high level now and can decline quite a bit and still be above average.

For me, it just comes down to dollars and cents. I think we'd all sign Hardy for 3 more years if he'd repeat his last contract for 3/$22 mm. I think none of us would sign Hardy for 3/$60 mm. Somewhere in between there is a contract that could make sense. Where you draw the line exactly depends on how worried you are about the risks of injury and decline, and to what degree you are willing to give Hardy the benefit of the doubt because he's a known quantity who we know fits well on the field and in the clubhouse, as opposed to some guy we are picking up from outside.

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I think Nick and Hardy will agree to team friendly deals. This is Nick's home and Hardy was all over the place before he got here.

I don't see anybody in the media that's saying Manny should move positions at this point. It would be nice to see him get through a season without an injury before switching to a more demanding spot.

Whether the deals are team friendly or not, they will become 10 & 5 guys after another season with the O's and the team will not be able to trade them without their consent. I don't believe they can give up the right to block any trade as part of their contract.

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Pick any shortstop you like. They aren't going to want to make JJ or Nick a 10 & 5 guy.

They may be willing with Nick so long as he signs a reasonable contract. There is value is keeping a player around his whole career. Value to the organization long term.

See: Jim Palmer, Cal Ripken, Brady Anderson, etc, etc...

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Agreed, but how much of a decline? He's at a very high level now and can decline quite a bit and still be above average.

For me, it just comes down to dollars and cents. I think we'd all sign Hardy for 3 more years if he'd repeat his last contract for 3/$22 mm. I think none of us would sign Hardy for 3/$60 mm. Somewhere in between there is a contract that could make sense. Where you draw the line exactly depends on how worried you are about the risks of injury and decline, and to what degree you are willing to give Hardy the benefit of the doubt because he's a known quantity who we know fits well on the field and in the clubhouse, as opposed to some guy we are picking up from outside.

It would probably be easier to roll the dice on Hardy if we didn't have Ubaldo on the books. But with our payroll, Hardy's new contract has to be a winner. Otherwise you have Ubaldo and Hardy eating a large percentage of the team's payroll, and both giving you diminishing returns. And the O's just aren't the kind of team that can afford that, especially when there doesn't appear to be a lot of position players ready in the minors that are going to be giving us a lot of excess value within the next few years.

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They may be willing with Nick so long as he signs a reasonable contract. There is value is keeping a player around his whole career. Value to the organization long term.

See: Jim Palmer, Cal Ripken, Brady Anderson, etc, etc...

Not to quibble, but Brady did not spend his entire career with the O's.

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Whether the deals are team friendly or not, they will become 10 & 5 guys after another season with the O's and the team will not be able to trade them without their consent. I don't believe they can give up the right to block any trade as part of their contract.

I think the 10-and-5 issue will deter the Orioles from signing Markakis or Hardy to an overly long contract, but won't be an obstacle to a 2-3 year deal, possibly with options.

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It would probably be easier to roll the dice on Hardy if we didn't have Ubaldo on the books. But with our payroll' date=' Hardy's new contract has to be a winner. Otherwise you have Ubaldo and Hardy eating a large percentage of the team's payroll, and both giving you diminishing returns. And the O's just aren't the kind of team that can afford that, especially when there doesn't appear to be a lot of position players ready in the minors that are going to be giving us a lot of excess value within the next few years.[/quote']

Since we don't have a lot of excess value in the farm system, where do you propose to get it if we don't sign Hardy? Are other team' free agents more likely to give us excess value than Hardy is? I want to understand what alternative you propose if Hardy isn't signed. Is there a price at which you would re-sign Hardy (let's assume a 3-year deal), and if he won't sign for that, what's our course of action?

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Since we don't have a lot of excess value in the farm system, where do you propose to get it if we don't sign Hardy? Are other team' free agents more likely to give us excess value than Hardy is? I want to understand what alternative you propose if Hardy isn't signed. Is there a price at which you would re-sign Hardy (let's assume a 3-year deal), and if he won't sign for that, what's our course of action?

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Not much of an improvement at SS or 3b for a discount.

Shortstops

Mike Aviles (34) ? $3.5MM club option with a $250k buyout

Clint Barmes (36)

Asdrubal Cabrera (29)

Stephen Drew (32)

Rafael Furcal (37)

J.J. Hardy (32)

Jed Lowrie (31)

John McDonald (40)

Nick Punto (37) ? $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250K buyout

Hanley Ramirez (31)

Third Basemen

Alberto Callaspo (32)

Jack Hannahan (35) ? $4MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Chase Headley (31)

Kelly Johnson (33)

Donnie Murphy (32)

Nick Punto (37) ? $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250k buyout

Aramis Ramirez (37) ? $14MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

Hanley Ramirez (31)

Mark Reynolds (32)

Pablo Sandoval (28)

Kevin Youkilis (36)

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