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Leaving out Kevin Gausman from the PO rotation not smart


Oriolesallday

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I just showed you, with actual facts, that Gausman is better with men on base.

You are being willfully ignorant to taunt other posters and I won't play your game tonight.

Balderdash you ignore the facts when they don't support your stance. There are just as many if not more posters on this thread who agree with Gausman assigned to the bullpen by Buck during the post season. So there are some facts for you as well to chew on

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1) You say he is "terrible when he has runners on base." But opponent's OPS with runners on base is only .677, which is better than Gonzalez (.715) and Tillman (.691), and only marginally behind Chen's (.665). Norris easily wins here at .601.

2) You say he walks too many hitters. He walks 3.07 players per nine innings, marginally more than Gonzalez (2.98), Tillman (2.95), and Norris (2.83). For perspective, if he had walked two less batters in his 108.1 innings (i.e. 35 instead of 37), he'd have less walks per nine inning than Tillman or Gonzalez, and if he walked three less (34 instead of 37) he'd be ahead of Norris as well. There's not much difference here.

I'm curious if he's really "terrible" when he doesn't get a first pitch strike. Any placewe can check that?

Batters are hitting 290 something off him if he doesn't get a first pitch strike. Thorne said it the other night and have heard it before. Just watch him it is noticeable..

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So that is why he ran Roberts out there in 2012? That is why he left Vlad in the cleanup slot all year? Because he thought it gave them a better chance to win?

Hogwash!

Leaving Vlad in the clean-up spot had very little consequence on the Orioles that year. They were just a bad team, with terrible pitching which hadn't matured yet. Although in September they started to show some life.

All Buck did was show a guy respect who was at the end of his career and had hit 29 home runs and produced 115 RBI the year before. That's the type of thing that gains favor with players and free agents to be. There's no reason to try to show someone up and move them down to 6th or 7th in order to eek out an extra win in a season with little to gain. Buck is smarter than you, me and anybody else here.

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Balderdash you ignore the facts when they don't support your stance. There are just as many if not more posters on this thread who agree with Gausman assigned to the bullpen by Buck during the post season. So there are some facts for you as well to chew on

I'm not sure that you fully understand the difference between facts and opinions. Though I guess it is a fact that several posters agree with your opinion.

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Batters are hitting 290 something off him if he doesn't get a first pitch strike. Thorne said it the other night and have heard it before. Just watch him it is noticeable..

You also noticed other things that turned out to be incorrect. When using statistics, you have to use actual statistics. Regarding stats if he doesn't get a first pitch strike (i.e. 1-0 counts), of course hitters will do better if they are ahead in the count. But you are judging this strictly based on batting average, and without any others to compare to? Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense. Do you understand, for example, that a .270 hitter with a .400 OBP and .600 SLG is a Hall of Famer, while a .290 hitter with a .300 OBP and a .330 SLG is probably a utility infielder? Of course, you do, and yet you base your argument solely on batting average, with nothing else to compare to.

Plus your whole argument is meaningless - what counts isn't his specific strengths and weaknesses (imagined or otherwise), but the whole package. You could make the same false argument about how Chen gives up too many hits - opponents have a much higher batting average against him than against other Orioles starters. But he compensates by walking very few batters.

I notice you didn't mention anything about your mistaken argument that Gausman is "terrible" when runners are on base (proven false by actual statistics), and on your exaggeration about his walking too many hitters. Reminds me of the thread where you argued that Mussina was never even a #1 or #2 pitcher for the Yankees, where you disappeared when actual stats showed you were incorrect.

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I'm not sure that you fully understand the difference between facts and opinions. Though I guess it is a fact that several posters agree with your opinion.

A number of people agree in this case with Old Fan's opinion. But the reasoning he uses for his opinion is irrational, and based on beliefs that are contradicted by actual stats, such as his firm but factually incorrect opinion that Gausman is "terrible" with runners on base. Others base their opinion with more sound reasoning. I find the most pertinent stat to look at here is the post allstar game ERAs - and that's why I think Gausman should be the one in the bullpen. (But I'm open to rational opposing arguments - I know ERA isn't the end-all of stats.)

Post AllStar ERAs

Tillman 2.06

Gonzalez 2.35

Chen 2.74

Norris 3.27

Gausman 3.73

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Plus Gausman is excruciating to watch with runners on base. He slows down his pace and that leads to more defensive lapses and unearned runs which he actually helps cause.

In Gausman's 108.1 innings, he's given up a grand total of 3 unearned runs. Three.

I was curious about them, so I looked up all three. One was because of a wild pitch (Sept. 1), and another was because catcher Joseph dropped a throw from RF Pearce (subbing for Markakis, Sept. 19). Neither of those have anything to do with Gausman's slow pace. So, at most, there was only one that could even be remotely "blamed" on this - a throwing error by Hardy that allowed a runner to get on base and eventually score (Aug. 27). One, in 108.1 innings. So I don't think your observations are valid.

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The decision about what to do with Bud and Gausman is not so narrow a question as "who is the better pitcher?" To define the decision point more accurately, I think, involves a broader thought process --- i.e., "Bud and Gausman are both assets at our disposal; how can we deploy to give us the best chance of winning 3 games against the Tigers?"

One of them appears likely to head to the bullpen. That Gausman is quite possibly the better option for this role can't possibly be a very controversial position. He pitched out of the bullpen for us last season, so he's much more accustomed to that role and that different routine. And, incidentally, he was exceptional in that role, even last year as an extremely green rookie. On a more specific level, he can get away with primarily (exclusively?) throwing his two great pitches in that role instead of having to try to force some breaking balls.

As for the better fit for the starting spot, obviously the numbers say it's a close call. Their ERAs and xFIPs are almost identical, with Gausman posting the better FIP largely on the back of a likely unsustainably low HR/FB rate.

Which means it comes down to more than just the bare numbers. As it should. We're not talking about who's the "better" pitcher or who should make more money or which guy to pick up in a fantasy league. We're talking about a situation in which one of these guys will be making his first ever MLB postseason start. On the road. In what will necessarily be either a possible clinch game or a possible elimination game. Quite possibly facing off against Justin Verlander, one of the best postseason pitchers of this generation. Metrics are great for a lot of things --- but the "intangibles" that go into determining performance in a situation like that are absolutely off the freakin' charts. Talent, even "true talent," is only a small ingredient in that recipe.

And that's why we have Buck. He is by absolutely every account one of the keenest observers of the mind/psyche of baseball players in the world. He's spent every day of the past 6 months with these guys, and longer than that with most of them. He knows their personalities, their mindsets, their attitudes. He's the most attentive, detail-oriented manager I've ever seen in action, and he's been using all this time to get a read on these guys. The types of situations they thrive in, the types of situations he needs to protect them from, and the optimal ways to maximize the team's performance as a whole.

As fans, there's nothing wrong with breaking down all the stats and all the metrics to reach our most informed opinion on the issue. That, along with what we observe during the games, is the extent of the information we have to take into consideration. Those of us who are diehards have much more informed opinions than casual Birds fans and even the national talking head analysts. But Buck has an entirely different level of access and information that we simply don't have. And beyond that, he's also damn good at what he does. Personally, I think that for us as fans to suggest that we can make a better decision than he can --- despite being almost entirely uninformed about the utterly crucial "intangible" side of deciding how best to deploy these guys --- is sheer hubris. It's really fun and interesting to banter about and discuss as fans...but ultimately, I think all the signs say "In Buck We Trust" for a reason.

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My two $.02: Going with 4 starters in the playoffs makes sense, so someone has to be dropped. The way Buck uses his starter, the "fifth" starter who is dropped is simply semantics. Buck has the luxury of taking a starter our early now if needed- any by early, I mean 3rd, 4th or 5th inning. Even earlier if needed. Say Gonzo is bombed for two innings in his first start and Gausman comes in. Does it really matter that he was not starting? He's a rookie, he'll earn the spot this year and start a playoff game next year. No problem, relax Roy. Ooops, wrong OH member ;)

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Deep pitching is a good problem to have, but I still believe Gausman has the best chance to shut someone like the Tigers down. Miguel was hammered by the Tigers earlier in the year, Gausman has faced most of the Tigers before with one of his best performances last year vs much of the current Detroit team. Buck is a "veteran guy" but in this case Id make an exception. Gausman start and if theres any serious trouble bring Miguel in.They won't do that of course, and it IS a mistake.

I'd also feel more comfortable with Gausman facing the Tigers and instead of Chen. But I think the O's will ultimately decide to use Gausman in the bullpen.

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Deep pitching is a good problem to have, but I still believe Gausman has the best chance to shut someone like the Tigers down. Miguel was hammered by the Tigers earlier in the year, Gausman has faced most of the Tigers before with one of his best performances last year vs much of the current Detroit team. Buck is a "veteran guy" but in this case Id make an exception. Gausman start and if theres any serious trouble bring Miguel in.They won't do that of course, and it IS a mistake.

Buck knows what he is doing.

Miggy had a rough go with the Tigers, but very early in the year and Gausman had a rough start in May too, 4 innings and an ERA of 11.75 in one start, and by the way, it was the same Detroit lineup.

Miggy will be fine.

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If it were up to me, the rotation against the Tigers would be:

1. Tillman

2. Norris

3. Chen

4. TBA

Norris has a 2.44 ERA at home and 4.80 on the road. I want him pitching at OPACY,

Chen, on the other hand, has pitched better on the road this season (3.35 ERA) than at home (3.76).

If Gausman has to come out of the bullpen in any of Games 1-3, then Gonzo starts Game 4. If Gausman hasn't pitched yet, he starts Game 4.

Gonzo doesn't pitch against the Tigers until everyone else has.

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Leaving Vlad in the clean-up spot had very little consequence on the Orioles that year. They were just a bad team, with terrible pitching which hadn't matured yet. Although in September they started to show some life.

All Buck did was show a guy respect who was at the end of his career and had hit 29 home runs and produced 115 RBI the year before. That's the type of thing that gains favor with players and free agents to be. There's no reason to try to show someone up and move them down to 6th or 7th in order to eek out an extra win in a season with little to gain. Buck is smarter than you, me and anybody else here.

Nonsense.

Potentially costing the teams wins shows favor with free agents to be? Batting Vlad 6th is showing him up? Ridiculous.

You are doing the rest of the team a disservice by kowtowing to vets and putting them where they no longer should be.

I also notice you didn't mention the playing time Roberts shouldn't have had in 2012, a season in which a few more wins could have resulted in a divisional title.

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Nonsense.

Potentially costing the teams wins shows favor with free agents to be? Batting Vlad 6th is showing him up? Ridiculous.

You are doing the rest of the team a disservice by kowtowing to vets and putting them where they no longer should be.

I also notice you didn't mention the playing time Roberts shouldn't have had in 2012, a season in which a few more wins could have resulted in a divisional title.

Not everybody believes this was the wrong decision.

Buck went with the guy he felt had the best chance to help his club, he said it numerous times.

Buck played the best cards he had in his hand and it wasn't good enough.

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