Two Year Window

[weams]

And several were pretty hard on Zach Britton too.

I thought he was done after the shoulder.

[BradyBunch]

Tillman was expected to be a POSSIBLE # 2 or # 3 starter between 2008 and 2010, maybe 2011, along with a few others, such as Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton.

By 2012, almost nobody expected Tillman to be a # 2 or # 3 starter.

They had seen him go up and down between AAA and the majors several times, each time doing well at the AAA level, and not well in the majors.

What I posted was accurate in terms of the expectations of Tillman.

What you posted is opinion of fans and we know how bad those are. Remember O's fans that were *****ing about not signing Balfour, signing Delmon Young and wanted Kendrick Morales over Nelson Cruz. They were ready to throw in the towel in May when the team was .500 and the offense was struggling and pitching was woeful, despite the O's having the hardest opening two months of season of any team.

Now those same fans are riding high on a win in game 1 of the ALDS. Sorry if I am not impressed with your evidence.

Tillman from the time he was drafted by Mariners to the day he was traded to the O's and actually posted good numbers in AA and AAA at Bowie and Norfolk against who were 3 to 6 years old then him, Tillman was always thought of, in the FO and by Scouts to be a solid #2 and great #3. They never expected him to be #1 of rotation.

When the O's brought him up to the majors in 2009-2011, he wasn't even 24 yet. Or to put it another way:

Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw didn't get going until 23. Cliff Lee and Adam Wainwright until the mid 20s (25 if I recall). After two full seasons in the bigs.

Matusz and Britton were in the same position as Tillman. They were young guys (23) and where rushed and wasted options by the O's. Arrieta was just in a bad situation as he was the expected ace and pressure got to him. He goes to the Cubs and isn't considered an ace and pitches like O's fan expected from him.

Problem was fans expected the world too son. But anybody who's played the game longer then 5 mins or even has idea of how to Scout or has Scouted, they know it takes time to develop pitchers from High School. It also takes time for pitchers to get use to the Majors. Nobody is their scouting report their first year or two in the bigs, ask Adam Jones. Slow, year by year Jones become the player he is now. He didn't come out of the gates in 2008 smashing 20 plus homers and 90 plus rbis.

[BradyBunch]

The bolded are the only ones I am counting on to fulfill more then an end of bench/bullpen role. And Sisco is still pretty far on the horizon.

Walker should be bold too.

[BradyBunch]

That's accurate. A lot of posters wanted to cut or trade Tillman back in 2011 and the first half of 2012.

Well, knowing posters here.. the sky is falling every 2 mins.

[OFFNY]

Tillman was always expected to be a #2 starter in a rotation and to be solid and consistent. O's rushed him. He hit his stride at the right age for a pitcher who came out of high school.

Gausman is the same way, he was a bit more complete pitcher when drafted by O's but he had a few years in college. He probably hit his full stride next year as a starter.

Tillman was expected to be a POSSIBLE # 2 or # 3 starter between 2008 and 2010, maybe 2011, along with a few others, such as Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton.

By 2012, almost nobody expected Tillman to be a # 2 or # 3 starter.

They had seen him go up and down between AAA and the majors several times, each time doing well at the AAA level, and not well in the majors.

What I posted was accurate in terms of the expectations of Tillman.

What you posted is opinion of fans and we know how bad those are. Remember O's fans that were *****ing about not signing Balfour, signing Delmon Young and wanted Kendrick Morales over Nelson Cruz. They were ready to throw in the towel in May when the team was .500 and the offense was struggling and pitching was woeful, despite the O's having the hardest opening two months of season of any team.

Tillman from the time he was drafted by Mariners to the day he was traded to the O's and actually posted good numbers in AA and AAA at Bowie and Norfolk against who were 3 to 6 years old then him, Tillman was always thought of, in the FO and by Scouts to be a solid #2 and great #3. They never expected him to be #1 of rotation.

When the O's brought him up to the majors in 2009-2011, he wasn't even 24 yet. Or to put it another way:

Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw didn't get going until 23. Cliff Lee and Adam Wainwright until the mid 20s (25 if I recall). After two full seasons in the bigs.

Matusz and Britton were in the same position as Tillman. They were young guys (23) and where rushed and wasted options by the O's. Arrieta was just in a bad situation as he was the expected ace and pressure got to him. He goes to the Cubs and isn't considered an ace and pitches like O's fan expected from him.

Problem was fans expected the world too son. But anybody who's played the game longer then 5 mins or even has idea of how to Scout or has Scouted, they know it takes time to develop pitchers from High School. It also takes time for pitchers to get use to the Majors. Nobody is their scouting report their first year or two in the bigs, ask Adam Jones. Slow, year by year Jones become the player he is now. He didn't come out of the gates in 2008 smashing 20 plus homers and 90 plus rbis.

Excuse me, but, how exactly do YOU know that, other than YOUR opinion?

The Cruz, Morales, Balfour, and Young comparisons are absurd, because the Oriole fans on the OH (and elsewhere) that were "*****ing" about those moves were doing so for a matter of weeks, at most 2 or 3 months.

Tillman ..... on the other hand ....... was up and down between AAA-Norfolk and the major leagues FOR YEARS between 2009 and 2012. He was very bad in the majors in 2009, 2010, and 2011, and (as I stated) did not start pitching well on a consistent basis until July of 2012 ...... his 4th year in the majors.

You are asserting that the Orioles' front office's opinion of Tillman did not waver at all between 2009 and 2012, which, unless you are Andy MacPhail and/or Dan Duquette and/or Buck Showalter yourself, doubt that you can show any empirical evidence of that.

These are Tillman's ERA's and WHIPs between 2009 and 2011.

2009: 5.40 ERA OOO 1.554

2010: 5.87 ERA OOO 1.528

2011: 5.52 ERA OOO 1.645

And then, in 2012, his numbers were:

2012: 2.93 ERA OOO 1.047

Now ...... My opinion that the expectations for Tillman had diminished is indeed an opinion, but it is based on empirical evidence that shows that Tillman was not getting it done in the majors for a considerable amount of time ...... not just a couple of months, or even a year. He had 3 seasons of not coming close to getting it done as even a # 5 starter, let alone a # 2 or # 3 starter.

Your opinion/assertion that:

Tillman was always expected to be a #2 starter in a rotation and to be solid and consistent. O's rushed him.

insinuates that the Orioles' front office and/or manager (Showalter) never waivered at all in their expectations of him between 2009 when he first came up, and 2012, when he finally started pitching well.

What exactly is that based on, other than you saying so ???

[Redskins Rick]

Excuse me, but, how exactly do YOU know that, other than YOUR opinion?

The Cruz, Morales, Balfour, and Young comparisons are absurd, because the Oriole fans on the OH (and elsewhere) that were "*****ing" about those moves were doing so for a matter of weeks, at most 2 or 3 months.

Tillman ..... on the other hand ....... was up and down between AAA-Norfolk and the major leagues FOR YEARS between 2009 and 2012. He was very bad in the majors 2009, 2010, and 2011, and (as I stated) did not start pitching well on a consistent basis until July of 2012 ...... his 4th year in the majors.

You are professing and insinuating that the Orioles' front office opinion of Tillman did not waver at all between 2009 and 2012, which, unless you are Andy MacPhail and/or Dan Duquette and/or Buck Showalter yourself, doubt that you can show any empirical evidence of that.

These are Tillman's ERA's and WHIPs between 2009 and 2011.

2009: 5.40 ERA OOO 1.554

2010: 5.87 ERA OOO 1.528

2011: 5.52 ERA OOO 1.645

And then, in 2012, his numbers were:

2012: 2.93 ERA OOO 1.047

Now ...... My opinion that the expectations for Tillman had diminished is indeed an opinion, but it is based on empirical evidence that shows that Tillman was not getting it done in the majors for a considerable amount of time ...... not just a couple of months, or even a year. He had 3 seasons of not coming close to getting it done as even a # 5 starter, let alone a # 2 or # 3 starter.

Your opinion/assertion that:

insinuates that the Orioles' front office and/or manager (Showalter) never waivered at all in their expectations of him between 2009 when he first came up, and 2012, when he finally started pitching well.

What exactly is that based on, other than you saying so ???

I agree. Tillman was a very good prospect that was inconsistent and that was one of the reasons, Seattle shipped him out. Much like we did with E-Rod this year.

There has been disagreement on Tilly since day 1, both in Birdland and in the Orioles own FO.

You are spot on!

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree. Tillman was a very good prospect that was inconsistent and that was one of the reasons, Seattle shipped him out. Much like we did with E-Rod this year.

There has been disagreement on Tilly since day 1, both in Birdland and in the Orioles own FO.

You are spot on!

I'm not sure Tillman was inconsistent so much as he was very young and put into a ridiculous environment. Immediately before the O's traded for Tillman he was a 19-year-old pitching for a High Desert Mavericks team in A ball that had a team ERA of 6.41. The Orioles were probably pretty smart in believing scouting over his raw totals that included a 5.26 ERA, maybe they even used that as a negotiating point - let's get them to throw in the guy with the high ERA. High Desert might be the most extreme hitter's environment in minor league baseball, and in 2007 they scored almost six runs a game and ended up 54-86.

[OFFNY]

I agree.

Thanks, Rick.

I don't want my point be misconstrued, though.

I agree. Tillman was a very good prospect that was inconsistent and that was one of the reasons, Seattle shipped him out. Much like we did with E-Rod this year.

There has been disagreement on Tilly since day 1, both in Birdland and in the Orioles own FO.

You are spot on!

I don't know the reasons why Seattle agreed to trade him to the Orioles as part of the Bedard deal. And, I'm also not so sure that the Orioles were doubtful about him when they acquired him. He immediately had an excellent season for AA-Bowie in 2008, and (along with Bergesen, Berken, and Hernandez) was one of the "Four AA Boys" that won a combined 48 games, and had 5 complete games and 3 shutouts (combined) in the 5-month minor league season.

Then, he (along with the other 3 aforementioned pitchers) started the ensuing season (2009) at AAA-Norfolk, where he continued to pitch well.

He was rapidly progressing at the highest level of the minors, and he was only 21 years-old when he finally got the call-up that July.

My point was that by 2012, when he was entering his 4th year of going back and forth between the majors and AAA, the high expectations that the Orioles had of him in 2009, 2010, and maybe even in spring training in 2011 were probably at least diminished.

I myself still believed in Tillman in 2012, but at the same time, I also had to concede that because of his inability to translate his AAA sucess into the majors for 3 consecutive seasons, it might not work out for him, ala Arrieta, Berken, David Hernandez, etc.

[hoosiers]

There was no doubt about Tillman. He and Jones were the centerpieces of the deal and there were sources, in the minority, who believed Tillman might be a better ML contributor than Jones. Tillman was mostly certainly not a "throw-in". I believe in the Baseball America mid-season 2009 top 50 prospects, he and Matusz were both top 10. Tillman was an early round draft pick and his prospect status was quite strong and then elite fairly quickly.

The other guys were throw in - Sherrill, Butler and the big reliever. There was debate here about several other Seattle guys who mostly flopped, but I see a couple of the names discussed back then in the majors.

[weams]

There was no doubt about Tillman. He and Jones were the centerpieces of the deal and there were sources, in the minority, who believed Tillman might be a better ML contributor than Jones. Tillman was mostly certainly not a "throw-in". I believe in the Baseball America mid-season 2009 top 50 prospects, he and Matusz were both top 10. Tillman was an early round draft pick and his prospect status was quite strong and then elite fairly quickly.

The other guys were throw in - Sherrill, Butler and the big reliever. There was debate here about several other Seattle guys who mostly flopped, but I see a couple of the names discussed back then in the majors.

Tillman was very highly rated. Without him Bedard would have gone elsewhere.

[DrungoHazewood]

Tillman was very highly rated. Without him Bedard would have gone elsewhere.

He was Baseball America's #67 prospect after 2007. He wasn't Bundy or Gausman, but he was a good prospect.

[Palmoripken]

Tillman was a huge part of the trade. Tony Butler was the throw in and the only one of the five not to make the majors. Glad to see Chris doing well. Rooted hard for him from the start.

[BradyBunch]

Excuse me, but, how exactly do YOU know that, other than YOUR opinion?

Read Tillman's scouting report from 2006. Read his report from 2007, 2008, 2009.. and so on.. all had him #2 or great #3 innings hog.

The Cruz, Morales, Balfour, and Young comparisons are absurd, because the Oriole fans on the OH (and elsewhere) that were "*****ing" about those moves were doing so for a matter of weeks, at most 2 or 3 months.

Sorry, I am not buying. I've been in the game threads in which every little at bat or inning pitched is the end of the world if it doesn't go our way, saw the topics about how inept the FO was over Balfour, how Young is a waste of space, and Morales was needed and not Cruz. We'll see those same topics come November again, hell we are already seeing them over FAs.

Fans have an opinion and 99% they are wrong. I was wrong on Lough, but he turned it around in the 2nd half. I was wrong on Ubaldo but he found his way come end of the season. It happens.

Tillman ..... on the other hand ....... was up and down between AAA-Norfolk and the major leagues FOR YEARS between 2009 and 2012. He was very bad in the majors in 2009, 2010, and 2011, and (as I stated) did not start pitching well on a consistent basis until July of 2012 ...... his 4th year in the majors.

While I am not trying to sound insulting here.. but ignorance is not an excuse. For an O's fan to know there are some major difference between pitching in at Harbor Park (Norfolk) then pitching at Camden Yards. Harbor Park is a pitchers park, always has been. Camden Yards is a hitters park and hitters feast on young pitching.

Also Tillman had a total of 51 starts during that period, that's less then 2 years, also MLB only recognizes him with 2.11 years of service (prior to this year).

You are asserting that the Orioles' front office's opinion of Tillman did not waver at all between 2009 and 2012, which, unless you are Andy MacPhail and/or Dan Duquette and/or Buck Showalter yourself, doubt that you can show any empirical evidence of that.

The FO's opinion didn't change. You don't keep calling up a player and wasting options if you don't have plans for that guy and expect that guy to be what your scouting showed. They saw flaws in his delivery sent him back to the minors, had him work on control, and find that fluid delivery. Then at the end of 2011 they sent him to Brady to work on his strength. During that whole "4" years he was showing well on the role report (your strength at your position) and his curveball and change up were still plus plus.

Also O's pitch staff changed as well. Rick Kranitz was horrible, Mark Connor was whatever, and Rick Adair. Tillman reached his potential under Adair in 2012.

The Tillman you saw in 2012 was the same Tillman from 2009, he was just mechanically sound and had a more stamina and strength.

Now ...... My opinion that the expectations for Tillman had diminished is indeed an opinion, but it is based on empirical evidence that shows that Tillman was not getting it done in the majors for a considerable amount of time ...... not just a couple of months, or even a year. He had 3 seasons of not coming close to getting it done as even a # 5 starter, let alone a # 2 or # 3 starter.

Empirical evidences means nothing here. What Tillman pitched at AAA vs MLB and draw some conclusion as if all was lost with him is not understanding what it takes to develop pitching, that's innings. Then also ignores where you pitch in AAA vs MLB. Pitchers park vs Launching pad.

Tillman didn't have considerable amount of time up in the majors. You see 2009-2011 as 4 years. It's not. It's about starts (innings). Tillman had 267 innings total in those 51 starts. Felix Hernandez didn't hit his stride until 73 starts and 465 inning in the MLB.

insinuates that the Orioles' front office and/or manager (Showalter) never waivered at all in their expectations of him between 2009 when he first came up, and 2012, when he finally started pitching well.

What exactly is that based on, other than you saying so ???

They kept calling him up, kept working with him and didn't toss him aside like others. You have to understand, Showalter doesn't waiver, he's not the type of guy. He's been in the game a long time and he knows when he sees a pitcher worth working with and getting him in the right position to succeed. Think about it.. this is the same Buck who found roles for Matusz, Britton and gave a nod to trade Arrieta knowing he needed a change of scenery.

[OFFNY]

Read Tillman's scouting report from 2006. Read his report from 2007, 2008, 2009.. and so on.. all had him #2 or great #3 innings hog.

What does that have to do with what the Orioles thought of Tillman in 2012 ???

I stated that Tillman was highly thought of when they acquired him in 2008, and when he first came up in 2009, 2010, and maybe even in 2011. My point was that by 2012, Tillman came through as an unexpected surprise, at least less expected than if he had been pitching well in any of his first 3 seasons back and forth between the majors and AAA, which he hadn't.

Why are you continuing to move the goalposts? It's a rhetorical question, because I know what you're doing. You're trying to assert that whatever was thought of Tillman in the years before 2012 were necessarily the same as what was though of him

Sorry, I am not buying. I've been in the game threads in which

It doesn't matter "what you are buying." You made absurd comparisons about fans complaining about newly signed players and/or newly released players, which have nothing to do with the subject ...... which is, Tillman's plight and the expectations of him by 2012, who was in his 5th year with the organization, and his 4th year back and forth between the majors and AAA.

Also, your statements about fans statements in game threads is even more absurd. GAME THREADS? Comparing fans' knee-jerk reactions in threads that are inherently reactionary with a pitcher who had pitched badly for 3 consecutive seasons? One has nothing to do with the other.

The FO's opinion didn't change.

Again, how do you know that ??? You don't.

Empirical evidences means nothing here.

Right. The empirical evidence of Tillman pitching well at AAA, but not pitching well in the majors for 3 consecutive years means nothing ...... but because YOU say that the Orioles felt the same in 2012 as they did in 2009.

I'm offering my opinion/instinct based on empirical evidence. My opinion/instinct may be wrong....... perhpads the Orioles did expect Tillman to pitch to a 2.93 ERA and a WHIP just over 1 in that 2012 season when they called him up again in July, but there is a rational basis for it. You're offering, "because that is the way that front offices work and/or the Orioles' front office works."

They kept calling him up, kept working with him and didn't toss him aside like others. You have to understand, Showalter doesn't waiver, he's not the type of guy. He's been in the game a long time and he knows when he sees a pitcher worth working with and getting him in the right position to succeed. Think about it.. this is the same Buck who found roles for Matusz, Britton and gave a nod to trade Arrieta knowing he needed a change of scenery.

They gave Arrieta as many chances as they gave Tillman.

Arrieta was in his 4th major league season as a starter, back and forth between AAA and the majors, the same as Tillman. Tillman pitched well in his 4th chance/season in the major. Arrieta, on the other hand, went the complete opposite way in his 4th season as a starter ...... he had his worst season since he had come up, with a 7.23 ERA and a 1.775 WHIP when we finally unloaded him to the Cubs.

Matusz had a slightly shorter leash (in terms of chances as a starting pitcher) than did Arrieta and Tillman did before they relegated him to the bullpen, but that was a particularly special circumstance. Whereas Arrieta was horrible in his 4th season with the Orioles, Matusz had the worst season ever for a starting pitching since 1901 in 2012.

Britton, granted, did not get as many chances as did Tillman or Arrieta as a starter before they sent him to the bullpen.