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Nick Markakis: 2.1 rWAR, 2.5fWAR (valued at $13.9 mm)


Frobby

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I thought it was interesting that Nick's final numbers ended up as high as they did. I feel like a couple of weeks ago people were saying he was a 1 - 1.5 WAR player.

There were 10 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in RF, and 11 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in LF. Therefore, I expect there will be a decent market for Nick's services this offseason.

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I thought it was interesting that Nick's final numbers ended up as high as they did. I feel like a couple of weeks ago people were saying he was a 1 - 1.5 WAR player.

There were 10 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in RF, and 11 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in LF. Therefore, I expect there will be a decent market for Nick's services this offseason.

That's fine, and we can start a hundred threads on the various free agents but Nick, unlike some others, wants to stay here. Both parties want to work something out. It will get done.

Hardy is gone most likely, Cruz is definitely gone.

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The Orioles are not a team who should be volunteering fair free agent dollar value to many players, especially not easily replaceable league averagish players in my opinion. The smart move to me is letting someone else pay him what he's worth. We have lough and de Aza in line to replace him and both are ~2 win players in full time duty as well. Lough can be as valuable as Markakis for 550k.

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That's fine, and we can start a hundred threads on the various free agents but Nick, unlike some others, wants to stay here. Both parties want to work something out. It will get done.

Hardy is gone most likely, Cruz is definitely gone.

I agree with everything in your post about except the last four words. I think it is way too soon to draw any absolute conclusions about anyone yet. Earlier in the season, I would have agreed with you, but I still would not have said anything was certain. It seems like Nelson enjoys being here and playing for Buck. Does that mean he will stay? I don't know. I don't think any of us do for sure right now.

Anyways, this is a thread about Nick. Sorry for the mini-sidetrack.

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The Orioles are not a team who should be volunteering fair free agent dollar value to many players, especially not easily replaceable league averagish players in my opinion. The smart move to me is letting someone else pay him what he's worth. We have lough and de Aza in line to replace him and both are ~2 win players in full time duty as well. Lough can be as valuable as Markakis for 550k.

Lose it in the arm, gain it in the legs?

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I thought it was interesting that Nick's final numbers ended up as high as they did. I feel like a couple of weeks ago people were saying he was a 1 - 1.5 WAR player.

There were 10 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in RF, and 11 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in LF. Therefore, I expect there will be a decent market for Nick's services this offseason.

Markakis always had big spikes in his WAR numbers throughout the year, usually because his defensive WAR would shoot up and down. Towards the end of the year he seemed like he was able to get to a few more balls than usual, which helped his defensive value during that stretch.

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I could see the White Sox being interested in Markakis. They badly need a left handed bat to play the outfield. I also think Nick would be a pretty good buy for the Yankees. They wouldn't need to spend an obscene amount, he would give their lineup some OBP, and his defensive weaknesses would be neutralized by the short ground to cover in right.

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I thought it was interesting that Nick's final numbers ended up as high as they did. I feel like a couple of weeks ago people were saying he was a 1 - 1.5 WAR player.

There were 10 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in RF, and 11 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in LF. Therefore, I expect there will be a decent market for Nick's services this offseason.

Couple of thoughts...First, WAR is pretty terrible/worthless IMO. Fun for conversations, but a terrible tool for building a team (not indicting you for using it, just saying this because so many on the board are going to use WAR to justify or not justify potential signings). It's like using the cost per mile of driving/owning a Ferrari to estimate how much I should pay per mile for using my Honda Fit. Second, the suppression of offense all over MLB baseball is stunning. Markakis' .729 OPS equals 107 OPS+ this year. His .801 OPS in 2009 equaled 108 OPS+. It really is a new era. Third, I don't think DD uses WAR at all. I think they are using some metrics, but some internally developed tools or tools borrowed from another team. If Markakis was not a long-time Oriole, then I think there is no way that DD would pay Markakis anywhere near his "market value". DD is cheap, but in a good way (in general). Fourth, of course Markakis' real value and what it would cost to replace him will probably play a very, very tiny role in his resigning. He's a life-long Oriole, a decent player, and the organization almost certainly wants to retain him.

By the way, I think a lot more teams are going to start spending money like DD and others and not like the Yankees. I could see Markakis getting far less on the market than his supposed WAR value. Especially if the O's give him a qualifying offer and he walks (I don't think he would walk, of course, but just imagining). No way would I give up a draft pick and big dollars for Markakis. But of course this is all mute because he will sign a mutually digestible two or three year deal with the O's.

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Couple of thoughts...First, WAR is pretty terrible/worthless IMO. Fun for conversations, but a terrible tool for building a team (not indicting you for using it, just saying this because so many on the board are going to use WAR to justify or not justify potential signings). It's like using the cost per mile of driving/owning a Ferrari to estimate how much I should pay per mile for using my Honda Fit. Second, the suppression of offense all over MLB baseball is stunning. Markakis' .729 OPS equals 107 OPS+ this year. His .801 OPS in 2009 equaled 108 OPS+. It really is a new era. Third, I don't think DD uses WAR at all. I think they are using some metrics, but some internally developed tools or tools borrowed from another team. If Markakis was not a long-time Oriole, then I think there is no way that DD would pay Markakis anywhere near his "market value". DD is cheap, but in a good way (in general). Fourth, of course Markakis' real value and what it would cost to replace him will probably play a very, very tiny role in his resigning. He's a life-long Oriole, a decent player, and the organization almost certainly wants to retain him.

By the way, I think a lot more teams are going to start spending money like DD and others and not like the Yankees. I could see Markakis getting far less on the market than his supposed WAR value. Especially if the O's give him a qualifying offer and he walks (I don't think he would walk, of course, but just imagining). No way would I give up a draft pick and big dollars for Markakis. But of course this is all mute because he will sign a mutually digestible two or three year deal with the O's.

It is a fact that some teams develop these tools. :thumbsup1:

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