Nick Markakis: 2.1 rWAR, 2.5fWAR (valued at $13.9 mm)

[Reboulet'sStache]

This is right, the Os would have to buy him out and I believe that's a 2 million dollar right there.

I think it's possible, if they can't re-work something, the Orioles pick the option up and let it play after next year. I don't see the Orioles letting him walk, but it's possible.

I hope they don't just pick the option up. If they are going to give him that kind of money, I hope they give him a QO.

[Can_of_corn]

That's a fairly good case in point.

I got your back.

[ledzepp8]

That's assuming they want him back. If they want the pick' date=' you give him the QO and hope he rejects it.[/quote']

Yeah but then why would he reject the QO? Unless he thinks he can get more that that amount of money per year long term or really doesn't want to be in Baltimore.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Yeah but then why would he reject the QO? Unless he thinks he can get more that that amount of money per year long term or really doesn't want to be in Baltimore.

Another team is willing to give him more years maybe?

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah but then why would he reject the QO? Unless he thinks he can get more that that amount of money per year long term or really doesn't want to be in Baltimore.

He might prefer something like 3/30 over 1/14.

[LoyalBirdFan]

I hope they don't just pick the option up. If they are going to give him that kind of money' date=' I hope they give him a QO.[/quote']

I hope they don't either. I'd would like to see Nick stay at a fair rate however.

Unfortunately, I think they'll pick up his option before they give him a QO, which he'd probably take.

[Frobby]

From 2011 to 2014 De Aza has been worth 8.9 fWAR, Markakis has been worth 5.8.

2013-2014, David Lough has been worth 4.1 fWAR in part time play, only 533 PAs. Markakis has been worth 2.5 wins (he was replacement level in 2013).

I don't see it as far fetched at all, since we are using fWAR as a value indicator in this thread.

My statement is one of opinion, not fact. My feeling is, to use either Lough or de Aza effectively, you need a platoon partner. You can't just multiply Lough's stats in "part time play" and assume he could produce as a full time player. de Aza is a stronger case, though fWAR likes him a lot more than rWAR (8.9 to 5.4), and even using the four-year window you selected, Nick is better by rWAR (6.0 to 5.4), and by either measure, Nick has been far more valuable over the course of his career. Call it my hunch, which is undoubtedly biased, but I just like Nick's track record a lot better.

[Frobby]

You can tell me his stats value him at 13.9M. The market isn't based on WAR, it's based on a team willing to pay a number for you. I'd put money on no team giving Markakis a 1 year 13-14M contract or a multi year contract approaching that annual salary. Will David Lough equal Markakis's production? Probably not, but at 500K I'll take my chances. De Aza will be around 5-6M. Again, I'll take my chances there, not that Markakis is actually going to get 13.9M.

I hope I didn't suggest that it's probable that some team will offer Nick a multi-year contract at $13.9 mm. I do not think that is likely. I do think he will probably get 3/$30 mm or better.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I agree with all this. However, while teams don't have to pay FA prices to get the specified production, the methodology used by fangraphs suggests that enough teams do pay it so that a market exists for the available free agents at roughly the prices fangraphs suggests. It's not like 2-2.5 WAR outfielders are so bountiful in major league farm systems that you can just pay one $500 k any time you feel like it, or pick one up for free from some other team which has extras lying around.

I think it's pretty doubtful that David Lough or Alejandro de Aza will be as good a player as Nick Markakis over the next couple of years. More likely, you'd need to find a RH platoon partner for either one to hope that the combo would be as good or better than Nick. That might be worthwhile given what Nick will cost.

Agreed. Assuming no QO, I personally would not be surprised to see Nick get 13 mil on a one year deal or even a 2-3 year deal in that AAV amount (not from us). I doubt he would get 4.

On a side note, I wonder if he'd have had much better production if we had rested him more these past 2 years, particularly in the second half of the season.

[atomic]

Huh? What does one have to do with the other?

Why give him a qualifying offer when you can just pick up the option for the same price. It makes no sense. If you give him a qualifying offer he can accept it and you end up paying him the same amount. So if you don't think he is worth 15.5 million than you don't make the offer. If you do think he is worth that much money you just pick up the option and he is playing on your team.

[Can_of_corn]

Why give him a qualifying offer when you can just pick up the option for the same price. It makes no sense. If you give him a qualifying offer he can accept it and you end up paying him the same amount. So if you don't think he is worth 15.5 million than you don't make the offer. If you do think he is worth that much money you just pick up the option and he is playing on your team.

Because he might no take it and then, if he signs with someone else, you get a draft pick.

If the cost is the same why would you not chose to give him the QO?

The only reason is you are worried he will be so offended it would effect his play, and if he is that offended he won't accept it.

[weams]

I thought it was interesting that Nick's final numbers ended up as high as they did. I feel like a couple of weeks ago people were saying he was a 1 - 1.5 WAR player.

There were 10 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in RF, and 11 teams with a sub-.700 OPS in LF. Therefore, I expect there will be a decent market for Nick's services this offseason.

So you are saying he was worth 15 this year? Wow. Surprising. But good.

[Babypowder]

My statement is one of opinion, not fact. My feeling is, to use either Lough or de Aza effectively, you need a platoon partner. You can't just multiply Lough's stats in "part time play" and assume he could produce as a full time player. de Aza is a stronger case, though fWAR likes him a lot more than rWAR (8.9 to 5.4), and even using the four-year window you selected, Nick is better by rWAR (6.0 to 5.4), and by either measure, Nick has been far more valuable over the course of his career. Call it my hunch, which is undoubtedly biased, but I just like Nick's track record a lot better.

Fair enough. I just think it is a bit strong to call either of them being as good as Nick doubtful. To me, there is evidence that they are already as good or better, and I see no evidence of Nick reverting to pre-2011 form, which is why I kept the evidence more recent. If he's going to get 3/30 from someone, I hope it isn't us. We already have adequate replacements and can allocate that money better elsewhere.

[LoyalBirdFan]

I guess this brings up a question.

What does it say, if anything, about a team that would basically say...

1- we don't want you anymore

2- we want a draft pick

3- we doubt you'll take the QO even if it is more than you can make and see #1

I don't know the answer, but it's a strange way out of am option year. And to me, that's the key, it's an option year.

[Frobby]

So you are saying he was worth 15 this year? Wow. Surprising. But good.

Well, $13.9 mm is not $15 mm, and fWAR likes Nick better than rWAR, so Nick wasn't worth $15 mm, but arguably he was worth at least something in the general ballpark of what he got paid.