Miguel Gonzalez Out Bud Norris In For Game Three

[AlbionHero]

Plus people gotta remember that Miguel is a pitch to contact pitcher... maybe that'll work against weaker hitting lineups, but I do not like his chances against a powerful Tigers lineup that crushes balls they make contact with. I think Norris matches up better since he can miss bats.

[CaptainRedbeard]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Norris hasn't pitched in a while and Buck doesn't want him going too long between outings</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">October 4, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I think this is all there is to it. If Gonzalez goes and we win game 3, Norris would be given the ball in the ALCS with a very long time between appearances. If we win with Norris starting game 3, Gonzalez will have at least pitched as recently as the last day of the season.

I like it. No reason to dig any further looking for other explanations.

[weams]

But then would could just as easily argue that Bud doesn't control what happens to the ball after it is put in play' date=' he can just limit the amount of times it is put in play. So 12 K's would be the best example of Bud. And Bud is going to give up about 4 runs a game on most good days. 12 K's probably guarantees that is all he is going to give up. So a performance like that would probably guarantee we get the best of Bud.[/quote']

Yes. Those are my thoughts also.

[clapdiddy]

Comerica is a totally different park than the Yard. I think that will help Norris a bit.

Have you seen Norris' home/road splits? He's been a MONSTER at home.

[McLovin]

Bud is really good vs. RHB's, and that's all Detroit has - except for Martinez...

Also, Bud dominated them the first two times through the lineup last time out.

[Crazysilver03]

I think this is all there is to it. If Gonzalez goes and we win game 3, Norris would be given the ball in the ALCS with a very long time between appearances. If we win with Norris starting game 3, Gonzalez will have at least pitched as recently as the last day of the season.

I like it. No reason to dig any further looking for other explanations.

This. Norris could be looking at almost 15 days between appearances with a game three win behind Gonzo.

[jcarm]

Bud Norris doesn't even average 6 innings for us' date=' and gives up 3.65 runs a game. I think you're expectations for Norris are a little unrealistic. He's basically a league average starter. If he gives us a full 6 innings tomorrow and only gives up 4 and strikes out 12, we should take that all day.[/quote']

How do you get that he gives up 3.65 runs a game? His ERA is 3.65-but that would mean that he gives up an average of 2.43 earned runs for every 6 innings pitched. Over six innings, 4 earned runs is a rather high number-well above is average for him. It is equivalent to a 6.00 ERA. Granted Detroit is a good hitting team and may well score 4 runs on him tomorrow if he pitches 6-but that is not the point here. He may also pitch a shutout tomorrow(granted not that likely to happen). I do fully expect Norris to pitch better than you seem to expect him to tomorrow. I would love it if he strikes out no one and gives up 2 runs over 6 innings. Strike outs are really just outs, when you get right down to it.

[Satyr3206]

Have you seen Norris' home/road splits? He's been a MONSTER at home.

I haven't looked at a stat all week. Been enjoying things too much.

[weams]

Bud is really good vs. RHB's, and that's all Detroit has - except for Martinez...

Also, Bud dominated them the first two times through the lineup last time out.

Fact are friendly.

[jcarm]

Fact are friendly.

Agreed. Maybe Buck is smart and kind of knows what he is doing? (sarcasm)

[Reboulet'sStache]

How do you get that he gives up 3.65 runs a game? His ERA is 3.65-but that would mean that he gives up an average of 2.43 earned runs for every 6 innings pitched. Over six innings, 4 earned runs is a rather high number-well above is average for him. It is equivalent to a 6.00 ERA. Granted Detroit is a good hitting team and may well score 4 runs on him tomorrow if he pitches 6-but that is not the point here. He may also pitch a shutout tomorrow(granted not that likely to happen). I do fully expect Norris to pitch better than you seem to expect him to tomorrow. I would love it if he strikes out no one and gives up 2 runs over 6 innings. Strike outs are really just outs, when you get right down to it.

The problem is you're projecting Norris' effectiveness on what he would be if he went deeper than he is capable of going. What does Andrew Miller's era project to if he pitched over 6 innings? Do you really think Miller would only give up that amount of runs if we pitched him over 6 innings?

Bud Norris relies heavily on two pitches. This allows him to get through a lineup with some level of success a few times. Anything more than that, he is in trouble. Which is why he doesn't average 6 innings a start. If Norris is taking us into the 7th, beyond where his effective parameters are, I would expect a jump in his era. Especially against Detroit.

[Frobby]

I doubt its an injury. I think they just trust Norris more for a deciding Game 3. I know I do, at least.

You don't trust the Stone Cold Killer? Why, his 7 inning 1 run performance against the Yankees wasn't good enough for you? I'd trust the guy with my life. But I'm also fine starting Norris with Gonzo behind him for Game 4 if needed.

[jcarm]

The problem is you're projecting Norris' effectiveness on what he would be if he went deeper than he is capable of going. What does Andrew Miller's era project to if he pitched over 6 innings? Do you really think Miller would only give up that amount of runs if we pitched him over 6 innings?

Bud Norris relies heavily on two pitches. This allows him to get through a lineup with some level of success a few times. Anything more than that' date=' he is in trouble. Which is why he doesn't average 6 innings a start. If Norris is taking us into the 7th, beyond where his effective parameters are, I would expect a jump in his era. Especially against Detroit.[/quote']

I am not projecting at all. I stated what he has done, on average over 6 innings, how is that projecting over anything longer? Fact, his ERA is 3.65 and if he only pitches 6 innings, he does not give up, on average 3.65 runs per game, as you stated earlier(because he does not pitch an average of 9 innings per game). Norris has averaged a hair over 5.9 innings per start. I would be happy if he can get through 6 while giving up 3 runs or less in Detroit and this is not out of the realm of possibilities.

[AlbionHero]

You don't trust the Stone Cold Killer? Why, his 7 inning 1 run performance against the Yankees wasn't good enough for you? I'd trust the guy with my life. But I'm also fine starting Norris with Gonzo behind him for Game 4 if needed.

Well, like I mentioned earlier I don't like his inability to get strike outs against a team like this. He's a pure pitch to contact pitcher and those types of pitchers don't do as well against big time offenses like this.

[AlbionHero]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=gonzami03&year=Career&t=p

He also has a career ERA 3 points higher against the Tigers than any other team he's faced (in 17 IP his ERA is 8.47).

Not like Bud has done much better, but I think he gives us a better chance to win.