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Roberts Must Go


Boston Dave

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Brian Roberts is one of my all time favorite Orioles. He is the complete package of on and off the field value. I wish we had 3 more like him.

However, he must go. This team will lose 90 with or without him. He won't sign an extension. It is asinine to keep him around to eak out a victory or 2 or 5. I would trade him for two blue chippers, if need be- no need to for a 4 or 5 for 1.

I am afraid that PGA will see the trade of Tejada and Bedard as "enough" and hold on stubbornly to our boy.

For our sake...heck, for his sake...let's move him.

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Chicago could really, REALLY use BRob. Getting Soriano out of the leadoff spot would be great for them. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they didn't give up Pie. And when it's all said and done, isn't that really what we are after? We want them to cough up the big guy.

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Dave,

I agree with what you are saying, but I definitely want to be sure we are getting back quality for Roberts.

I'm not sure if the White Sox or Indians can make us a better deal than the Cubs at this point, but I'm not going to trade Roberts for just a pile of prospects.

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"Roberts has to go" at the right price. He shouldn't be given away just for the sake of making a trade. The return has to improve the O's in the near future so AM has to be very careful with this one just as I assume he has been with the other trades. As far as what I've read one blue chipper isn't even being offered, much less two, so I doubt they are holding out for more with that on the table.

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Chicago could really, REALLY use BRob. Getting Soriano out of the leadoff spot would be great for them. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they didn't give up Pie. And when it's all said and done, isn't that really what we are after? We want them to cough up the big guy.

That just won't happen. If that is the demand, then you'll get to see BRob all summer.

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Question: Can we build a winner with the prospects from the Tejada trade and Bedard trade alone, assuming PGA gives his boy a long-term extension? Or are more needed from a Roberts trade?

The O's are stocked up on pitching but not enough on positions. More is needed but more as in quality positional prospects.

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Chicago could really, REALLY use BRob. Getting Soriano out of the leadoff spot would be great for them. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they didn't give up Pie. And when it's all said and done, isn't that really what we are after? We want them to cough up the big guy.

Problem is that Soriano really really likes to bat leadoff. I don't think we'd get Pie, and I'd question the rationale for getting him - when part of the value of getting Jones is that he plays a premium position. I also question those who think Pie is a great prospect while saying Cedeno is a mediocre prospect. Their stats at the same age were too similar.

I will not be heart-broken if we keep Roberts for 2 years - keeping in mind that we will likely get 2 good picks for him.

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Has Roberts expressed either interest or opposition to sticking around for a rebuild? Would he view the Tejada / (potential) Bedard moves as sufficient proof that the team is in turnaround mode...sufficient enough for him to stick around?

It doesn't matter he isn't part of the teams future. Even if he wants to stay he will be 33 or so by the team is winning.

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Has Roberts expressed either interest or opposition to sticking around for a rebuild? Would he view the Tejada / (potential) Bedard moves as sufficient proof that the team is in turnaround mode...sufficient enough for him to stick around?

Would you at age 30 when you have 3-4 solid years left? Or would you want to maybe go to a contender with the chance at a winning record, maybe a division title and possibly a WS ring?

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Has Roberts expressed either interest or opposition to sticking around for a rebuild? Would he view the Tejada / (potential) Bedard moves as sufficient proof that the team is in turnaround mode...sufficient enough for him to stick around?

He said he doesn't want to be the "last man standing".

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I thought BRob was a must-trade for a while, but I think if you don't get back something great for him then he can stick around. He seems much more inclined to stay than Bedard does, and regardless, he will definitely cost much less than Bedard would have to sign an extension. If we make significant strides in the next year and a half, I'd have to think he would be much more inclined to stay.

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Chicago could really, REALLY use BRob. Getting Soriano out of the leadoff spot would be great for them. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they didn't give up Pie. And when it's all said and done, isn't that really what we are after? We want them to cough up the big guy.

Three things:

1.) Roberts wouldn't displace Soriano from the leadoff spot anyways. He'd bat second, giving the Cubs a front five of Soriano, Roberts, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome... followed by a combination of Soto, Pie, and Theriot/Cedeno (quite possibly in that order)

2.) Lineup order makes very little difference in the grand scheme of things. Conventional wisdom usually creates a lineup that is pretty close to the optimal one, so no teams stand to gain much from tweaking theirs. But if we are trying to maximize the potency of the lineup, the best order would be as follows

Fukudome

Ramirez

Soto

Soriano

Lee

Pie

Cedeno

Pitcher

Roberts

I used the baseballmusings.com lineup analysis tool and BP's PECOTA projections to figure this out. The only assumptions are that Pie and Cedeno aren't included in the trade, and Lou decides to bench Theriot at some point because of his complete inability to hit a baseball. Oh, and that the average NL pitcher hits about like he did last season.

3. The Cubs aren't even remotely likely to give up Pie. Looking at the FA CF options this year and next, Kenny Lofton is the only one that is even close to productive, and he's in excess of 40 years old. On top of that, Sam Fuld is the only other CF option in our system that's "ready", and he can't hit. And Colvin is still more than a year away. Jim Hendry is pretty stupid, but he'd have to be colossally stupid to think he can rely on Kenny Lofton for two years.

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