Roberts Must Go

[amateurfan]

It suggests I endorse the trade from the O's perspective. It does not suggest I like the trade from the Cubs' perspective, as has been incorrectly inferred.

In fact I've been hoping this trade does not happen for awhile now, and I've posted that opinion several times recently. Do some searching if you need convincing.

The sentiments in post 160 do not depend on any perspective you hope the trade might or might not bring. They do express support for a trade from the O's perspective. It is very clear that you do not support a trade for Roberts from the Cubs side. I can understand that, though I think you are placing too much confidence in DeRosa.

[El Gordo]

Three things:

1.) Roberts wouldn't displace Soriano from the leadoff spot anyways. He'd bat second, giving the Cubs a front five of Soriano, Roberts, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome... followed by a combination of Soto, Pie, and Theriot/Cedeno (quite possibly in that order)

2.) Lineup order makes very little difference in the grand scheme of things. Conventional wisdom usually creates a lineup that is pretty close to the optimal one, so no teams stand to gain much from tweaking theirs. But if we are trying to maximize the potency of the lineup, the best order would be as follows

Fukudome

Ramirez

Soto

Soriano

Lee

Pie

Cedeno

Pitcher

Roberts

I used the baseballmusings.com lineup analysis tool and BP's PECOTA projections to figure this out. The only assumptions are that Pie and Cedeno aren't included in the trade, and Lou decides to bench Theriot at some point because of his complete inability to hit a baseball. Oh, and that the average NL pitcher hits about like he did last season.

3. The Cubs aren't even remotely likely to give up Pie. Looking at the FA CF options this year and next, Kenny Lofton is the only one that is even close to productive, and he's in excess of 40 years old. On top of that, Sam Fuld is the only other CF option in our system that's "ready", and he can't hit. And Colvin is still more than a year away. Jim Hendry is pretty stupid, but he'd have to be colossally stupid to think he can rely on Kenny Lofton for two years.

The 9th batter gets the fewest AB's. Why would you want one of your best hitters to bat 9?

[Roll Tide]

1.) Roberts wouldn't displace Soriano from the leadoff spot anyways. He'd bat second, giving the Cubs a front five of Soriano, Roberts, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome... followed by a combination of Soto, Pie, and Theriot/Cedeno (quite possibly in that order)

Here we go again ...another debate over where Rberts will bat for the Cubs. Roberts has no value to the Cubs over Derosa unless he hits Lead off. Soriano really is better suited to hit lower in the order. Dont tell me about the stat differential . If he is a professional & goes out everyday & earns all that money you guys are paying to see him play, his stats will be similar no matter where he hits. Of course he could have baby fits & be a "I" ballplayer.

[El Gordo]

If Murton is out there putting up an .850 OPS with 20 HR (for about $3.5M) and Gallagher is throwing 210 IP at a 4.15 ERA (for about $500k), then they make us a much better team.

Given how bad the team is that's not hard to do, almost anyone would improve it, but that's not he idea. The idea is to build a future contender. Murton, Gallegher, Cedeno, etc, are more likely to be role players on a contender.

[Rob H]

The 9th batter gets the fewest AB's. Why would you want one of your best hitters to bat 9?

It's the "Second leadoff hitter" theory. It's mostly used in the AL, but it has its NL uses as well. Tony LaRussa was the first to start implementing it on a regular basis back when Big Mac was lighting the world on fire... he wanted to make it more likely to have runners on for his big slugger. He abandoned the practice for a while, but has recently resumed it.

[PoorMike]

I thought I'd post this in this thread since we've been discussing Roberts on the Cubs. In Peace's thread about bedard taking his physical tomorrow, bigbird said he is hearing that the Cubs have an offer on the table of Gallagher, Veal, Murton, and Cedeno for Roberts. Discuss.

It wasn't 100% clear if that was our offer or the Cubs offer.

[Rob H]

Here we go again ...another debate over where Rberts will bat for the Cubs. Roberts has no value to the Cubs over Derosa unless he hits Lead off. Soriano really is better suited to hit lower in the order. Dont tell me about the stat differential . If he is a professional & goes out everyday & earns all that money you guys are paying to see him play, his stats will be similar no matter where he hits. Of course he could have baby fits & be a "I" ballplayer.

How about the fact he's just a better hitter, plain and simple? Added defensive value? Added baserunning value?

Roberts isn't valuable because he can hit at the top of the lineup. He's valuable because of his production. This really isn't that hard to understand...

[Roll Tide]

Given how bad the team is that's not hard to do, almost anyone would improve it, but that's not he idea. The idea is to build a future contender. Murton, Gallegher, Cedeno, etc, are more likely to be role players on a contender.

I actually think Murton is & deserves to be a everyday player. At 25 he hasn't hit his ceiling yet. He is a .300 hitter could very well be a 20-25 HR Guy, with 80+ rbi's.

Gallagher project as a #3 & may be as high as a #2. I think he is a more polished guy than most of the pile of 3-5 guy candidates we have.

[El Gordo]

It's the "Second leadoff hitter" theory. It's mostly used in the AL, but it has its NL uses as well. Tony LaRussa was the first to start implementing it on a regular basis back when Big Mac was lighting the world on fire... he wanted to make it more likely to have runners on for his big slugger. He abandoned the practice for a while, but has recently resumed it.

This doesn't answer the basic question. A guy with a high OBP should get as many bats as possible, It's silly to give the pitcher or Cedeno more AB than BRob.

[Rob H]

This doesn't answer the basic question. A guy with a high OBP should get as many bats as possible, It's silly to give the pitcher or Cedeno more AB than BRob.

At first glance, one would think so. Personally, I don't understand it myself, but a few million Monte Carlo simulations can't be wrong.

[Bloopandablast]

How about the fact he's just a better hitter, plain and simple? Added defensive value? Added baserunning value?

Roberts isn't valuable because he can hit at the top of the lineup. He's valuable because of his production. This really isn't that hard to understand...

Roberts and DeRosa had virtually the same OPS last year. Just how much of a hitting upgrade do you think he is?

Roberts adds speed. He might add a little range. Beyond that he adds very little to the Cubs.

While I am appreciative to hear that he is a "good citizen", is an "Angelos favorite", is the "face of the Orioles", was a "two-time All-Star" and works out hard, those just do not score any runs, nor does they save any runs. Tell me how many net runs and therefore net wins he adds to the Cubs and then we can talk about value. The rest is just a waste of time.

[Baltimoron]

RE the second leadoff hitter:

Baseball teams score by hitting home runs or stringing batters together reaching base.

Not having your worst hitter hit in front of your 5 best hitters is good for stringing runners together, as outs are rally killers.

Its not huge, but it will add couple of extra runs over a season, depending on the actual talent of the guys involved.

[SevisonJN]

The leadoff hitters importance seems to lie in the first inning, only. After that there is a strong possibility that any hitter can leadoff an inning. The importance of Roberts if he were to bat first (which he should) is to be on base when Soriano steps to the plate. Brian also goes deep into counts which should aid in increasing the opposing pitchers pitch count. If were the Cubs I would go after Roberts also. I wouldn't give up Gallagher, Veal, Murton, and Cedeno, but I hope they do. Murton, Scott, Jones, and Markakis sounds like a top 5 outfield for the next 3-5 years. Gallagher and Veal would allow us to further stockpile high quality arms. I like the job AM has done thus far (assuming Bedard deal goes down soon), but it has been painfully slow.

[Rob H]

Roberts and DeRosa had virtually the same OPS last year. Just how much of a hitting upgrade do you think he is?

Roberts adds speed. He might add a little range. Beyond that he adds very little to the Cubs.

While I am appreciative to hear that he is a "good citizen", is an "Angelos favorite", is the "face of the Orioles", was a "two-time All-Star" and works out hard, those just do not score any runs, nor does they save any runs. Tell me how many net runs and therefore net wins he adds to the Cubs and then we can talk about value. The rest is just a waste of time.

Roberts was a .285 EqA hitter last season. DeRosa was .268.

Roberts is projected for a .293 EqA next season. DeRosa is projected for a .270.

Assuming an equal amount of PA for each (let's call it 600... split the difference between Roberts likely getting 650 batting at the top of the order, and DeRosa getting 550 batting lower)...

If they both perform like last year, Roberts is worth about an extra 11.5 runs. If they both perform to their projections, Roberts is worth about 16.5 extra runs. That includes stolen bases, but it doesn't account for the rest of their baserunning or their defense.

All in all, Roberts is probably about a 25 run upgrade over DeRosa.

[square634]

Roberts was a .285 EqA hitter last season. DeRosa was .268.

Roberts is projected for a .293 EqA next season. DeRosa is projected for a .270.

Assuming an equal amount of PA for each (let's call it 600... split the difference between Roberts likely getting 650 batting at the top of the order, and DeRosa getting 550 batting lower)...

If they both perform like last year, Roberts is worth about an extra 11.5 runs. If they both perform to their projections, Roberts is worth about 16.5 extra runs. That includes stolen bases, but it doesn't account for the rest of their baserunning or their defense.

All in all, Roberts is probably about a 25 run upgrade over DeRosa.

Plus you can use DeRosa as a supersub to spell other guys. DeRosa can still add a good amount of value that way.