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Will Markakis sign with the O's before the FA signing begin? (Option Declined)

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

Will Markakis resign with the O's before he is eligible to sign with other clubx?  

128 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Markakis resign with the O's before he is eligible to sign with other clubx?

    • Yes, Nick will resign with the O's before he is eligible to sigin with other clubs.
      56
    • No, will not resign with the O's at all
      39
    • No, Nick will not resign with the O's before he can sign with other clubs
      33

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birrman54 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

birrman54

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David Lough was worth 1.9 WAR in under 200 PA this year - in a season he started with a horrific April->May.

I think he's being completely underrated as a larger part of the 2015 outfield. I wouldn't just give him the starter spot but I don't see why we shouldn't be planning for him to have a larger role. Given 450 PA I don't think it's unreasonable to expect something in the 3 WAR range. He isn't yet eligible for arbitration so he will be fairly cheap.

Nick, by comparison was worth 2.5 WAR this year - a great bounceback from 2013, but the first time he's exceeded 2 WAR since 2010. I think it would be unreasonable to expect much more than 2 WAR per season over the next 3-4 years. If he requires 10/yr for 3+ years I don't think he'll be worth it.

I'd rather resign Miller and use the remaining money to take care of the other arbitration raises for Tillman, Britton, Wieters, et al.

As others have said - free agent outfielding options are fairly slim. I wouldn't mind Gomes or Willingham as RH platoon guys. I also wish the Orioles would actually be involved in Yasmani Tomas, but I doubt that will happen.

There's also the potential to add a corner outfielder via trade, but it doesn't seem worth speculating on at this point

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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I wouldn't mind having Cruz back, but the pricetag is probably going to be unjustifiable. I'd love to have Miller back, but the pricetag will probably be obscene. I'd look for a Lough platoon partner. I'd look for a backup middle infielder. I'd try to find a good first baseman/DH, and go into 2015 with Davis not getting many ABs against lefties. I'd look at more Miller/Hunter types who're still disappointing starters.
Not going to find too many of these guys in FA. Have to trade. And I think we already have a decent back up middle IF in Flash and the RH DH/1B and platoon partner for Lough in Pearce. If you don't sign Cruz you need to replace his bat.
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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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David Lough was worth 1.9 WAR in under 200 PA this year - in a season he started with a horrific April->May.

I think he's being completely underrated as a larger part of the 2015 outfield. I wouldn't just give him the starter spot but I don't see why we shouldn't be planning for him to have a larger role. Given 450 PA I don't think it's unreasonable to expect something in the 3 WAR range. He isn't yet eligible for arbitration so he will be fairly cheap.

Nick, by comparison was worth 2.5 WAR this year - a great bounceback from 2013, but the first time he's exceeded 2 WAR since 2010. I think it would be unreasonable to expect much more than 2 WAR per season over the next 3-4 years. If he requires 10/yr for 3+ years I don't think he'll be worth it.

I'd rather resign Miller and use the remaining money to take care of the other arbitration raises for Tillman, Britton, Wieters, et al.

You don't think Markakis would have a much higher WAR if he never faced left handed pitching? Thinking two platoon players = 1 full time player based on WAR is silly. With today's short benches you aren't going to be able to platoon both left field and right field.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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I guess I just don't see Markakis as valuable as you do. I think a Lough' date=' Pearce, Jones, De Aza outfield will more than makeup for Nick's absence. Use the money to address the pen. Add it to the price of a DH.[/quote']I doubt it, but even so how are you making up for the loss of Cruz and Miller as well?
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AlbionHero Major Leaguer

AlbionHero

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Except when you're facing a left-handed SP and are stuck with either Lough or De Aza in the lineup. If the O's could add another right-handed hitting outfielder to that quartet, and have platoons in both LF and RF, then it might work.

People talk about not wanting Lough to face lefties, but he actually had a better OPS against lefties in his full time work 2nd half of 2013. I don't think he's a guy you need to avoid facing lefties like Buck always has done. His minor league stats never have shown more than like a .30 difference in OPS each year too.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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People talk about not wanting Lough to face lefties, but he actually had a better OPS against lefties in his full time work 2nd half of 2013. I don't think he's a guy you need to avoid facing lefties like Buck always has done. His minor league stats never have shown more than like a .30 difference in OPS each year too.

So you are stating his minor league stats were equally bad on either side of the plate?

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AlbionHero Major Leaguer

AlbionHero

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MLBTR just did their free agent preview for Markakis. Their FA contract prediction is 3/39 (if given a QO), 4/48 if not.

Is there any chance Markakis would turn down a QO if he was offered one? He'd be avoided like the plague on the open market if he cost a 1st round pick.

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PaulFolk Hangout Grand Counsel

PaulFolk

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People talk about not wanting Lough to face lefties, but he actually had a better OPS against lefties in his full time work 2nd half of 2013. I don't think he's a guy you need to avoid facing lefties like Buck always has done. His minor league stats never have shown more than like a .30 difference in OPS each year too.

Lough has a career .620 OPS against lefties, compared to .717 against righties. It's a small sample size (less than 100 PAs against lefties), but I don't think there's any reason to believe he'd be a legitimate everyday option against lefties.

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birrman54 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

birrman54

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You don't think Markakis would have a much higher WAR if he never faced left handed pitching? Thinking two platoon players = 1 full time player based on WAR is silly. With today's short benches you aren't going to be able to platoon both left field and right field.

WAR is a cumulative stat, so no I don't think it would be higher if he played less.

It's reasonable to say that David Lough wouldn't be able to maintain that rate if he had to face LHP more often, but again I would still suggest the 2015 plan should be that he get more than 200 PA.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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WAR is a cumulative stat, so no I don't think it would be higher if he played less.

It's reasonable to say that David Lough wouldn't be able to maintain that rate if he had to face LHP more often, but again I would still suggest the 2015 plan should be that he get more than 200 PA.

His OPS difference was 70 points different between left-handers and right-handers. You take away the negative and it would definitely rise. Lough isn't a major league player IMHO. And I think the opinion of the team as well. Hence the De Aza trade. He is as good as gone.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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Is there any chance Markakis would turn down a QO if he was offered one? He'd be avoided like the plague on the open market if he cost a 1st round pick.

There is no chance we give him a qualifying offer as that would be the same thing as picking up his option.

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