The 2015 Matt Wieters Thread

[Sanfran327]

I want to start this discussion to get an idea of how everyone thinks he's going to fit in with the team next year. We kept hearing "catchers don't come back from TJ surgery" when he initially went down, and that has me fairly concerned. Controlling the running game is a big part of "Buck Ball", so we can't put him back there if he's got a noodle for an arm next year. I'm hoping he comes back as good as ever, but I also wonder if that's a realistic expectation. At the very least, I think we should have tempered expectations for what we might get out of him early on behind the plate.

If he comes back and can't catch because he's ineffective controlling the running game, what happens then? Probably the only other position he can play is 1b, and we have Davis and Pearce at the moment with Walker a phone call away. He can obv DH, but we should at least consider the possibility of Cruz coming back and slotting Pearce there, as well.

The way I see it right now is that there's at least some possibility of Wieters and Cruz creating a bit of logjam at DH - and Wieters ain't gonna win that battle. On that note, I also really want to resign Cruz, and in this scenario, that requires Wieters to be back behind the plate, and thus fully healthy.

[Aristotelian]

Here's an article with some comps. The problem is nobody of Wieters' caliber offensively or defensively has ever had TJ. Very hard to know what will happen. At worst Wieters will be an option for lefty DH.

http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2014/06/17/matt-wieters-tommy-john-surgery-baltimore-orioles

In all, only Hundley, Teagarden and Baker went on to have significant major league careers post-surgery, and they've hit a combined .212/.294/.395 in 2,445 post-surgical PA at the level with a 24 percent caught-stealing rate. That makes them more backup/fringe material than regulars, let alone stars, though to be fair, the sample size is small. Only once did any of the trio (Hundley, 1999) catch at least 100 games in a season post-surgery.

[Redskins Rick]

Which is why I have argued that while Wieters isn't a pitcher and non pitchers bounce back quicker from TJ.

It's still too early to have a handle if Wieters will be ready to catch on Opening day.

[Frobby]

Which is why I have argued that while Wieters isn't a pitcher and non pitchers bounce back quicker from TJ.

It's still too early to have a handle if Wieters will be ready to catch on Opening day.

Per Roch:

catcher Matt Wieters has started to do some light throwing as he progresses from ligament-reconstructive surgery on his right elbow.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2014/12/orioles-searching-for-outfield-alternatives.html

[Guest]

Enjoy his last year as a Oriole.

[weams]

I want to start this discussion to get an idea of how everyone thinks he's going to fit in with the team next year. We kept hearing "catchers don't come back from TJ surgery" when he initially went down, and that has me fairly concerned. Controlling the running game is a big part of "Buck Ball", so we can't put him back there if he's got a noodle for an arm next year. I'm hoping he comes back as good as ever, but I also wonder if that's a realistic expectation. At the very least, I think we should have tempered expectations for what we might get out of him early on behind the plate.

If he comes back and can't catch because he's ineffective controlling the running game, what happens then? Probably the only other position he can play is 1b, and we have Davis and Pearce at the moment with Walker a phone call away. He can obv DH, but we should at least consider the possibility of Cruz coming back and slotting Pearce there, as well.

The way I see it right now is that there's at least some possibility of Wieters and Cruz creating a bit of logjam at DH - and Wieters ain't gonna win that battle. On that note, I also really want to resign Cruz, and in this scenario, that requires Wieters to be back behind the plate, and thus fully healthy.

I think Matt is at worst case a great DH.

[Frobby]

Enjoy his last year as a Oriole.

I intend to. But I'll say this: I think Buck will push Dan on Wieters much harder than he did on Cruz.

[Rene88]

I intend to. But I'll say this: I think Buck will push Dan on Wieters much harder than he did on Cruz.

Why? I think Weiters is tremendously overrated. He won't stick at C for the length of contract he will get.

Between Cruz and MW, I much rather have kept Cruz and not even close.

MW value is tied to his position. Cruz on jacking homers.

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[Frobby]

Why? I think Weiters is tremendously overrated. He won't stick at C for the length of contract he will get.

Between Cruz and MW, I much rather have kept Cruz and not even close.

MW value is tied to his position. Cruz on jacking homers.

Why? Because Buck has a man-crush on Wieters. Always has.

[Rene88]

Why? Because Buck has a man-crush on Wieters. Always has.

You know...not so sure about that. I thought he did with Brob too and he was gone quickly.

Regardless I want nothing to do with what MW will demand. I would be happy trading him but doubt we would get anything so what's the point.

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[tntoriole]

Millions and millions of dollar difference to Matt depends on whether he can catch at high level or not in 2015. If he does and his bat is decent, he will be overpriced and gone.

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[backwardsk]

Like Nelson Cruz, I like having guys in their walk years. The 2015 may 3-4 starting position players who will be FA in 2016 and two starting pitchers.

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[OriolesMagic83]

I think Matt is at worst case a great DH.

I would say he's more of an average DH. What's a typical Weiters year? 20 HR, .250 average, low .700 OPS. He's not Cruz that's for sure.

[HokieOs]

Why? I think Weiters is tremendously overrated. He won't stick at C for the length of contract he will get.

Between Cruz and MW, I much rather have kept Cruz and not even close.

MW value is tied to his position. Cruz on jacking homers.

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Cruz jacks homers? Really? Does he? How many other 40+ HR seasons does he have in his career? Outside of 2014, the answer is 0. How about seasons with more than 30 home runs? The answer: 1 outside of 2014 (2009 with 33).

Sure, he played 159 games last year. He did that one other year in his career. But outside of 2012 and 2014, Cruz hasn't had a season north of 130 games.

I really don't understand why people here are so in love with Cruz. Don't be surprised if Wieters is better with the bat over his next 3 or 4 years than Cruz.... and Wieters has further value as a catcher.

And FWIW, I also agree that Wieters is a bit overrated.

[Frobby]

Wieters' throwing progression is up to 150 feet (note: throw to 2B is 127 feet), and he still expects to be ready for Opening Day:

"The rehab's going well and going how it's supposed to from all the talk I've gotten with Dr. (James) Andrews and my physical therapist down here and Richie (Bancells)," Wieters said. "Everything's kind of moved along and we're preparing for me to be ready for opening day. We still have a good couple of months before we're there, so it's still going to be a lot of work to put into it, but that's what I'm preparing for. We're trying to get all the steps checked off before we get there.

"We'll see when I'm actually going to be able to get behind the plate and catch in games during spring training, but it's just a matter of making sure the arm has been tested enough to where when we do get into games with adrenaline and a little bit of pressure that we're ready to go."

Wieters said getting the shoulder strong is a big part of the rehab process following elbow surgery.

"Today we went out to 150 just to test it out a little bit," he said, "and everything has kind of checked out and we've had nothing really major to set back the progression."

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2015/01/showalter-on-duquette-and-wieters-on-his-throwing-progression.html