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Markakis - Historical Comps Aged Well


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He's almost the very definition of average.

It's kind of a funny thing to say about a guy who has been worth 25 WAR at age 30. Not many players attain that. It's true that his current level of performance is about average, but the fact that he's been able to be average or a bit above so consistently makes him above average, if that makes sense.

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It's kind of a funny thing to say about a guy who has been worth 25 WAR at age 30. Not many players attain that. It's true that his current level of performance is about average, but the fact that he's been able to be average or a bit above so consistently makes him above average, if that makes sense.

I would buy that if he still had occasionally clearly better then average years mixed in. He hasn't hit the 3.0 WAR barrier since 2008. If you take out the 2008 and 2013 seasons (by far the best and worst) you are left with a player that produced 2.59 rWAR and 2.36 fWAR a year. That is just a hair over average. I don't see the point in locking in long term an average player who is more likely to decline then improve.

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I would buy that if he still had occasionally clearly better then average years mixed in. He hasn't hit the 30 WAR barrier since 2008. If you take out the 2008 and 2013 seasons (by far the best and worst) you are left with a player that produced 2.59 rWAR and 2.36 fWAR a year. That is just a hair over average. I don't see the point in locking in long term an average player who is more likely to decline then improve.

I see the logic in what you're saying. It all depends on how much value, if any, you put on loyalty and various intangible things. And those things are in the eye of the beholder.

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I see the logic in what you're saying. It all depends on how much value, if any, you put on loyalty and various intangible things. And those things are in the eye of the beholder.

Yea, I don't.

Look at it this way, if the O's cut ties with Nick now you won't have to live in a world where fans are bitter about how he is a drain on the team and is stealing money.

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Yea, I don't.

Look at it this way, if the O's cut ties with Nick now you won't have to live in a world where fans are bitter about how he is a drain on the team and is stealing money.

I'm waiting to see how it plays out. I'd like to live in a world where Nick is signed to a reasonable contract, outperforms it and the O's win the World Series. So I'll start by seeing if he is signed to a reasonable contract, is overpaid to stay, or is not signed and goes elsewhere.

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I'm waiting to see how it plays out. I'd like to live in a world where Nick is signed to a reasonable contract, outperforms it and the O's win the World Series. So I'll start by seeing if he is signed to a reasonable contract, is overpaid to stay, or is not signed and goes elsewhere.

I think I'm in the same boat as you, where Nick is my favorite player and I want to see him come back. Part of me doesn't really care if he's overpaid, because I want my favorite player to stay on my team. Since I knowing can't offer much of an objective opinion, I've kind of stayed out of these discussions.

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At $6 million/WAR, Markakis is worth the following over the next 3 years:

2.0 WAR/season: 36 million

1.5 WAR/season: 27 million

A team-friendly deal would be in the neighborhood of 3/24. I don't know if Nick would be willing to take that deal, but it's fair IMO. The Orioles are holding better cards than they had when BRob got his deal, one that I'm sure PA hasn't forgotten. I guess we'll see how much Nick wants to stay in Baltimore because the team has other options if Nick's agent wants to charge best-case scenario/retail prices.

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At $6 million/WAR, Markakis is worth the following over the next 3 years:

2.0 WAR/season: 36 million

1.5 WAR/season: 27 million

A team-friendly deal would be in the neighborhood of 3/24. I don't know if Nick would be willing to take that deal, but it's fair IMO. The Orioles are holding better cards than they had when BRob got his deal, one that I'm sure PA hasn't forgotten. I guess we'll see how much Nick wants to stay in Baltimore because the team has other options if Nick's agent wants to charge best-case scenario/retail prices.

That's what he's worth at going free agent rates. Below some threshold around league average performance many teams will forgo major free agents and attempt to acquire less expensive talent via trades or platoons or non-tenders or waiver pickups or under-the-radar international talent. You could argue that a below-average 1 WAR regular might be worth $3M/year in free agency, but nobody would ever sign such a player to a 3/9 or 5/15 contract.

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