Is Markakis Greatest Value to us Sentimental?

[fearthenoodle]

It's never as simple as just replacing Nick with someone like Lough. Sure, he's an excellent defender. And he showed some flashes at the plate both in 2013 and 2014. But can his bat hold up over 600-700 PAs? Moving a guy who's been valuable in a part-time role into a full-time role doesn't always work out.

You can say the same thing about Steve Pearce. He was outstanding this year in a little under 400 at-bats. He probably earned a full-time role (certainly moreso than Lough), but does he get over-exposed that way? It's a delicate balance, and I trust DD and Buck to figure out the combination that will work best.

[mdbdotcom]

It's never as simple as just replacing Nick with someone like Lough. Sure, he's an excellent defender. And he showed some flashes at the plate both in 2013 and 2014. But can his bat hold up over 600-700 PAs? Moving a guy who's been valuable in a part-time role into a full-time role doesn't always work out.

You can say the same thing about Steve Pearce. He was outstanding this year in a little under 400 at-bats. He probably earned a full-time role (certainly moreso than Lough), but does he get over-exposed that way? It's a delicate balance, and I trust DD and Buck to figure out the combination that will work best.

Can Nick's bat hold up for 600-700 PAs? I suppose it does if you don't mind his dropoff at the end of the season. He might be a lot more productive (and valuable) if he got 550 PA a year.

[Aglets]

I definitely wouldn't push insanely hard for him if he was on another team. I think 3/30 would be about my ceiling.

I guess I have to admit that the "Baltimore factor" does make me want to raise that just a tad.........but not by much. If he wants anything more than like 11-12 per year........I guess we end up moving on.

[Aristotelian]

The thing I find hard to fathom is how he can bat lead off for a fairly decent offensive team, log 710 PA's have a .341 OBP and yet only score 81 runs. Is he that slow? Is he that hard to move around the bases.

I think the O's need to upgrade RF & LF, but they can't let the OBP drop any lower than it already is.

Because the guys hitting behind him stink at moving runners over. Basically he scores if AJ gets a hit for extra bases.

[Babypowder]

I agree with Aglets' view of the two players. Your point about the $30 mm is fair enough. How would you spend the money? I'd argue that Lough is in a role that allows him to have a lot of value, and by making him an everyday player his value will not be as high as Nick's, but then you have a spot he has vacated so how to you construct your team to add some value there?

I think Lough playing defense every day would actually allow him to post similar WAR totals to Nick on his glove alone. You might need to platoon Lough but maybe not. He was fine against them in 2013 and the sample size we are harping on in 2014 is all of 21 plate appearances. It's the short side of a platoon anyway. Despite what the current attitude seems to be around here, Nick could use a platoon mate too. Playing mostly everyday after he got called up in 2013 he was worth 2.4 more fWAR (2.8 more rWAR) than Nick in only 96 games and 335 PAs. In 2014, he was worth .6 less fWAR (.5 rWAR) than Nick in 112 games but only 197 plate appearances. Over the last two seasons totaled, he's been the more valuable player and the defense playing everyday will make him the better everyday player in my opinion. He's about a league average hitter and you're probably taking a small step down on offense, but it's a smaller step than people are pretending, and the defense will make up for it.

As for what to do with the money, flexibility is always a good thing. I see the Orioles as being close to their payroll ceiling already without re-signing any of their free agents. I say it's bad business to tie a significant amount of what I believe to be a limited remaining budget on a player I believe we can replace cheaply with a player we already have.

[mdbdotcom]

Because the guys hitting behind him stink at moving runners over. Basically he scores if AJ gets a hit for extra bases.

No, it's because he needs someone to hit a triple or home run for him to score from first. Even a double usually gets Nick only to 3b.

[fearthenoodle]

As for what to do with the money, flexibility is always a good thing. I see the Orioles as being close to their payroll ceiling already without re-signing any of their free agents. I say it's bad business to tie a significant amount of what I believe to be a limited remaining budget on a player I believe we can replace cheaply with a player we already have.

What's the payroll ceiling?

[wildcard]

I've posted this before, but Nick was unbelievably conservative in 2014 in taking an extra base (two bases on a single, three on a double) when someone got a hit while he was on base. He only took an extra base 17% of the time, which is less than half his career rate (he has never been below the low 30's in any other year). I'm not sure if that was a function of being slow, or whether he was under instructions not to kill rallies by trying to take an extra base and risking getting thrown out with the big boppers coming up. I did not feel he looked particularly slow in RF compared to recent previous seasons, so I expect it was some kind of intentional strategy.

Whatever strategy you think was in affect for Nick didn't seem to apply to De Aza. De Aza seem to be going for the exact base every chance he got. Doubles, triples, you name it.

[Bahama O's Fan]

How would you feel if we let Nick walk, used his money towards someone like Cruz, having the following OF's on the roster: Jones, Cruz, DeAza, Pearce and Lough with Alvarez waiting in AAA, and Davis at 1B?

[Babypowder]

What's the payroll ceiling?

I don't think we are going to see anything more than a modest increase from where they were in 2014. With raises to arbitration eligible players, we are already close. Maybe I'm wrong, and they all of a sudden jump up into the top 10 in payroll, but I don't think it happens. Even if that were the case, I still wouldn't spend significant money on Nick Markakis. Drungo and I appear to have the same strategy for Nick's free agency.

[Aglets]

How would you feel if we let Nick walk' date=' used his money towards someone like Cruz, having the following OF's on the roster: Jones, Cruz, DeAza, Pearce and Lough with Alvarez waiting in AAA, and Davis at 1B?[/quote']

Hard to argue that this wouldn't make us a much better team. Id def be onboard with this.......but as I've said repeatedly on here........Cruz likely isn't coming here. If he lowers his (reportedly astronomical) demands to be reasonable for maybe a 3 year deal...........then yes, let's jump on it.

[DrungoHazewood]

You might need to platoon Lough but maybe not. He was fine against them in 2013 and the sample size we are harping on in 2014 is all of 21 plate appearances. It's the short side of a platoon anyway.

I think the assumption has to be that Lough can't hit lefties. The reason he has less than 25% of his career PAs is a) his teams don't think he can hit lefties, b) He has a .268 OBP and .620 OPS against them in limited PAs, and c) outside of 2011 he doesn't seem to have hit them in the minors much, either.

[fearthenoodle]

I don't think we are going to see anything more than a modest increase from where they were in 2014. With raises to arbitration eligible players, we are already close. Maybe I'm wrong, and they all of a sudden jump up into the top 10 in payroll, but I don't think it happens. Even if that were the case, I still wouldn't spend significant money on Nick Markakis. Drungo and I appear to have the same strategy for Nick's free agency.

I think $120-130MM is realistic, based on inflation and the increases over the past couple of years. That still would be outside of the top-10, most likely.

[Babypowder]

I think the assumption has to be that Lough can't hit lefties. The reason he has less than 25% of his career PAs is a) his teams don't think he can hit lefties, b) He has a .268 OBP and .620 OPS against them in limited PAs, and c) outside of 2011 he doesn't seem to have hit them in the minors much, either.

You're probably right. I would argue needing a platoon partner on the short side isn't a deal breaker. I'd also argue that Nick Markakis probably could use a platoon partner anyway, though he doesn't need one as badly.

[DrungoHazewood]

How would you feel if we let Nick walk' date=' used his money towards someone like Cruz, having the following OF's on the roster: Jones, Cruz, DeAza, Pearce and Lough with Alvarez waiting in AAA, and Davis at 1B?[/quote']

The risk there is that Cruz and Pearce both turn into pumpkins, De Aza OPSes the same .700 he did last year. I expect the 9-10 wins Cruz and Pearce were worth this year to become 4-5 in 2015. De Aza was worth 0.7 rWAR. You can wishcast Lough into a 2.5 win player and still lose quite a bit off of this year's production.

And it's hard to project Alvarez to anything more than an average MLB outfielder, and that's giving him credit for the US baseball learning curve.