Is Markakis Greatest Value to us Sentimental?

[DrungoHazewood]

You're probably right. I would argue needing a platoon partner on the short side isn't a deal breaker. I'd also argue that Nick Markakis probably could use a platoon partner anyway, though he doesn't need one as badly.

Nick might could use some more rest, but at least from an OBP perspective he has very little platoon splits. He does lose some power.

[Babypowder]

Nick might could use some more rest, but at least from an OBP perspective he has very little platoon splits. He does lose some power.

He already doesn't have much power to lose. He had a ISO of .049 against lefties this year, he slugged .330. It's not like his glove makes up for it. In 2013, he had a wRC+ of 80 against lefties. He's not as productive against them and a team wouldn't be crazy to implement a platoon partner against lefties.

[Babypowder]

I think $120-130MM is realistic, based on inflation and the increases over the past couple of years. That still would be outside of the top-10, most likely.

That's a 20-30 percent increase no? I don't see that as likely.

[Guest rochester]

I think Buck is far more appreciative of Nick than Dan is. I remember the first winter he was here, Dan always mentioned Jones, Hardy and Wieters as the core of the team and never mentioned Nick. And when you look solely at the stats, it's a reasonable position. Buck sees how steady and tenacious Nick is and feels that adds value beyond the stat sheet. Those of us who feel sentiment towards Nick feel that way too. Those who are more analytic-oriented feel that stuff is irrelevant or, at least, overvalued. It's an age-old battle.

I agree with the DD and Buck statement. I believe that is a good thing though and may be one reason why the results from these two are good. With Buck, there is some definite personal feelings involved which is fine, he sees them everyday. With DD it's "Is he worth x for x years and/or how is the best way to spend..." Based on that, if we extend Nick, I will be fine with it - there is something to be said for knowing what you are going to get.

Diff topic

What I do not understand is the myth that PA will force an extension - I must have missed that article/quote. I also have a feeling that Nick is more of a DD type - staying here would be great but sentimentality will not be a major reason for it.

[fearthenoodle]

That's a 20-30 percent increase no? I don't see that as likely.

2012: $84,102,333

2013: $92,238,333

increase: 9.7%

2013: $92,238,333

2014: $107,466,653

increase: 16.5%

A 10% increase would bump the payroll to roughly $118MM. A 16% increase would bump it roughly to $125MM. A 30% increase would take it all the way to $140MM, which I agree is unlikely.

$107MM clearly wasn't our ceiling last year, either, given our $13MM offer to Ervin Santana during spring training. It seems like DD has built to goodwill with Angelos to the point where if he feels he needs a little more, he can get it.

[Babypowder]

2012: $84,102,333

2013: $92,238,333

increase: 9.7%

2013: $92,238,333

2014: $107,466,653

increase: 16.5%

A 10% increase would bump the payroll to roughly $118MM. A 16% increase would bump it roughly to $125MM. A 30% increase would take it all the way to $140MM, which I agree is unlikely.

$107MM clearly wasn't our ceiling last year, either, given our $13MM offer to Ervin Santana during spring training. It seems like DD has built to goodwill with Angelos to the point where if he feels he needs a little more, he can get it.

Fair enough, the site I was on had them close to 100 million for 2014. I still don't think 16 percent increases in back to back years is likely. If I had to guess, I'd put the ceiling right around 120.

[AlbionHero]

I think Lough playing defense every day would actually allow him to post similar WAR totals to Nick on his glove alone. You might need to platoon Lough but maybe not. He was fine against them in 2013 and the sample size we are harping on in 2014 is all of 21 plate appearances. It's the short side of a platoon anyway. Despite what the current attitude seems to be around here, Nick could use a platoon mate too. Playing mostly everyday after he got called up in 2013 he was worth 2.4 more fWAR (2.8 more rWAR) than Nick in only 96 games and 335 PAs. In 2014, he was worth .6 less fWAR (.5 rWAR) than Nick in 112 games but only 197 plate appearances. Over the last two seasons totaled, he's been the more valuable player and the defense playing everyday will make him the better everyday player in my opinion. He's about a league average hitter and you're probably taking a small step down on offense, but it's a smaller step than people are pretending, and the defense will make up for it.

I completely agree with this, and it doesn't even bring up the extra value that Lough gives on the base over Nick as well. I could see Lough posting 2-3 dWAR next year from defense alone (he has done 1-1.5 in limited time the each of the last 2 years... any offense he gives us is just gravy, while Nick is normally -1.0 dWAR or so. I'd expect a 3-4 WAR season from Lough over a full year, with about 80% of it coming from his defense and baserunning.

It might not look pretty on the standard offensive stats people see, but he'd be an important player in the actual game.

[Ohfan67]

I've posted this before, but Nick was unbelievably conservative in 2014 in taking an extra base (two bases on a single, three on a double) when someone got a hit while he was on base. He only took an extra base 17% of the time, which is less than half his career rate (he has never been below the low 30's in any other year). I'm not sure if that was a function of being slow, or whether he was under instructions not to kill rallies by trying to take an extra base and risking getting thrown out with the big boppers coming up. I did not feel he looked particularly slow in RF compared to recent previous seasons, so I expect it was some kind of intentional strategy.

He looked slow on the base paths and in RF to me. I don't think he was under instructions to be conservative. Buck seems to encourage runners to take their shots if they feel good about it (Buck said this numerous times during the season and Cruz's choices certainly suggests they had freedom to go for it).

[fearthenoodle]

That's one perspective. I highly doubt there is a rigid ceiling. I think the floor is more likely to be around $120MM. Another playoff year, increased season ticket sales, etc. Just a single playoff appearance can increase revenues between $25 and $70MM over the next 5 years, and now we have two. I think the payroll is pretty flexible for Dan to go in whatever direction he decides.

[clapdiddy]

He looked slow on the base paths and in RF to me. I don't think he was under instructions to be conservative. Buck seems to encourage runners to take their shots if they feel good about it (Buck said this numerous times during the season and Cruz's choices certainly suggests they had freedom to go for it).

Yeah...I think this is my biggest concern about Nick. He looks almost like he's running in cement shoes. He was never really "fast", but he seemed to run the bases pretty well. I'm afraid he's an "old" 30 at this point. I hate to say that as he's one of my favorite players.

[AdamK]

If he was playing for Cleveland or Milwaukee' date=' would you be looking to sign him? What would your offer be? Do you think Dan has any sentimental ties to Nick? Will he have to listen to Angelos?[/quote']

Good question.

I'm still on the fence and will likely be fine with whatever the club decides in Nick's case.

I'm not enamored with him and don't think he is worth the cost to resign without a home team discount, but as many point out, FAs rarely are worth the $.

But it would help me move on if we had a legitimate young OF prospect to supplant him, even if -- like Schoop -- we needed to be patient while he was at the ML level. But aside from CF, the future looks murky and that causes me to be leery of losing Nick... Right now.

Would letting him go accelerate finding a legit replacement? It shouldn't since it could be a prospect. Would not having cash to sign a guy because we gave it Nick hinder finding his replacement? Not directly, I guess.

Guess it's good I don't have to make the call. But I will be asking Santa this year for a few good OFs to add serious competition. How fun would it be to have that Castillo kid to replace RF or LF?

[Frobby]

He looked slow on the base paths and in RF to me. I don't think he was under instructions to be conservative. Buck seems to encourage runners to take their shots if they feel good about it (Buck said this numerous times during the season and Cruz's choices certainly suggests they had freedom to go for it).

Well, the numbers certainly suggest that Nick was not particularly slower in the field last year. His Range rate per fangraphs was -1.6 in 2014, which actually was the best he has done in that category since 2008. So the HUGE drop in percentage of extra bases taken is really difficult for me to explain just by saying he was slower.

[Ohfan67]

Is Markakis Greatest Value to us Sentimental?

Yes. Absolutely. It's not even close IMO. I like Markakis and the sentimental side of me would love to see him retire as an Oriole. But unless he signs for a really club friendly contract, then I think it's almost a certainty that he significantly under performs his contract. He is an aging singles hitter with decreasing range in the outfield and is a slight negative on the base paths. The upside is league average or slight below league average. I think that is the absolute highest we can hope to see. He has slugged below .400 and OPS just over .700 in his last 1400 at bats. There's no way DD would pay the going free agent rate for that kind production. For comparison, the Orioles' 2013 LF "platoon" had an OPS of .706. In DD's world, it doesn't make any sense to pay Markakis what it will take to sign him. The only reason the O's will sign him is to make him a life-long Oriole. They will definitely be paying for previous performance and for sentimentality.

[Ohfan67]

Well, the numbers certainly suggest that Nick was not particularly slower in the field last year. His Range rate per fangraphs was -1.6 in 2014, which actually was the best he has done in that category since 2008. So the HUGE drop in percentage of extra bases taken is really difficult for me to explain just by saying he was slower.

Defensive metrics aside (and of course you know the strengths and weaknesses of those), he looked slower to me, ESPECIALLY in the latter part of the season.

[Ohfan67]

P.s. not trying to hate on Markakis because he is one of my favorite Orioles and I won't be ticked off if the O's sign him, even for a goofy amount of money.