Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

[OFFNY]

If they can bring Nick back at $10M a year I'd say they are in good shape. Markakis in 2014 was 49th in OBP(.342), 40th in runs scored(81), 80th in offensive player WAR (2.5) and 21st in K% (8.7%). Not a world beater by any means but a solid, play every day, average baseball player. Those numbers are not a simple feat to replace Although not a bargain at 4/40 its hardly crippling and I think the good feeling for how players are treated that Cruz had talked about would only be helped by bringing back Nick.

Also look at other OF contracts around the league. Is $10M really a stretch?

2015 in millions

Josh Hamilton 23

Jacoby Ellsbury 21

Jayson Werth 21

Matt Kemp 21

Carl Crawford 20.5

Andre Ethier 18

Matt Holliday 17

Curtis Granderson 16

Carlos Gonzalez 16

Nick Swisher 15

Carlos Beltran 15

Ryan Braun 14.5

Justin Upton 14.5

BJ Upton 14.45

Jose Bautista 14

Shin-Soo Choo 14

Michael Bourn 13.5

Shane Victorino 13

Alex Gordon 12.5

Brett Gardner 12

Jay Bruce 12

Martin Prado 11

Coco Crisp 11

Yoenis Cespedes 10.5

Andrew McCutchen 10

Angel Pagan 9

Michael Cuddyer 8.5

Cody Ross 8.5

Carlos Gomez 8

Marlon Byrd 8

Carlos Quentin 8

Jason Heyward 7.8

Cameron Maybin 7

David Murphy 6

Seth Smith 6

Allen Craig 5.5

Rajai Davis 5

David Dejesus 5

Chris Young 2.5

Please post more often.

[Can_of_corn]

Biased, but not emotional. The players are not commodities to me. The days that Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray and Mike Mussina left the organization were very dark days in my life. I realize that nothing lasts forever, but I'm all for keeping loyal players who do a good job.

You have an emotional attachment. Me, not so much.

[Dark Helmet]

If they can bring Nick back at $10M a year I'd say they are in good shape. Markakis in 2014 was 49th in OBP(.342), 40th in runs scored(81), 80th in offensive player WAR (2.5) and 21st in K% (8.7%). Not a world beater by any means but a solid, play every day, average baseball player. Those numbers are not a simple feat to replace Although not a bargain at 4/40 its hardly crippling and I think the good feeling for how players are treated that Cruz had talked about would only be helped by bringing back Nick.

Also look at other OF contracts around the league. Is $10M really a stretch?

2015 in millions

Josh Hamilton 23

Jacoby Ellsbury 21

Jayson Werth 21

Matt Kemp 21

Carl Crawford 20.5

Andre Ethier 18

Matt Holliday 17

Curtis Granderson 16

Carlos Gonzalez 16

Nick Swisher 15

Carlos Beltran 15

Ryan Braun 14.5

Justin Upton 14.5

BJ Upton 14.45

Jose Bautista 14

Shin-Soo Choo 14

Michael Bourn 13.5

Shane Victorino 13

Alex Gordon 12.5

Brett Gardner 12

Jay Bruce 12

Martin Prado 11

Coco Crisp 11

Yoenis Cespedes 10.5

Andrew McCutchen 10

Angel Pagan 9

Michael Cuddyer 8.5

Cody Ross 8.5

Carlos Gomez 8

Marlon Byrd 8

Carlos Quentin 8

Jason Heyward 7.8

Cameron Maybin 7

David Murphy 6

Seth Smith 6

Allen Craig 5.5

Rajai Davis 5

David Dejesus 5

Chris Young 2.5

Yes because he's slow and a mediocre player. David Lough could easily replace Markakis numbers. In fact, they should extend Lough before he gets expensive. With all his speed they could save money by not needing a LF or a CF.

Markakis is one of those guys I want to finish his career as an Oriole. He came up through the system and has been really underrated by folks. He hasn't lived up to the standards that others have expected. But he's been a very good player who many seem to begrudge because he didn't become the 30 HR guy they thought he'd be. I don't know when rock steady consistant became known as mediocre. That's a huge insult imo. I know the metrics say he's an average player, but I don't care. And I don't agree.

[AlbionHero]

If they can bring Nick back at $10M a year I'd say they are in good shape. Markakis in 2014 was 49th in OBP(.342), 40th in runs scored(81), 80th in offensive player WAR (2.5) and 21st in K% (8.7%). Not a world beater by any means but a solid, play every day, average baseball player. Those numbers are not a simple feat to replace Although not a bargain at 4/40 its hardly crippling and I think the good feeling for how players are treated that Cruz had talked about would only be helped by bringing back Nick.

Also look at other OF contracts around the league. Is $10M really a stretch?

It mainly comes down to the fact we can get similar production and more flexibility without paying him 40-50 million over 4 years. On the open market, sure he may be close to that value, but theres no real reason for US to pay it. Let someone else pay it who doesn't have other good options at RF.

[25 Nuggets]

Yes because he's slow and a mediocre player. David Lough could easily replace Markakis numbers. In fact, they should extend Lough before he gets expensive. With all his speed they could save money by not needing a LF or a CF.

Lough hasn't proven he can be a consistent hitter yet -- extending him would be a bad move unless you're talking something cheap. He'll be faster than Kakes for sure but he won't get on base as often. And he hasn't even hit arbitration yet.

I agree that giving Markakis the money is poor allocation of salary. I can live with $10 mil though. I don't think Brian Roberts is a terribly good comparison because B-Rob couldn't get on the field. Markakis should provide some value to the team.

[Can_of_corn]

Lough hasn't proven he can be a consistent hitter yet -- extending him would be a bad move unless you're talking something cheap. He'll be faster than Kakes for sure but he won't get on base as often. And he hasn't even hit arbitration yet.

I agree that giving Markakis the money is poor allocation of salary. I can live with $10 mil though. I don't think Brian Roberts is a terribly good comparison because B-Rob couldn't get on the field. Markakis should provide some value to the team.

How much value is there in durability, when the level of play isn't high?

As for comparing the contract to Roberts, I was talking about the drain on the payroll if Nick continues to decline.

[25 Nuggets]

How much value is there in durability, when the level of play isn't high?

As for comparing the contract to Roberts, I was talking about the drain on the payroll if Nick continues to decline.

Fair enough; I don't see a very big rate in decline so much as a bad season in 2013 when he was coming back from injury. He was a 2 win player in 2010, and a 2 win player last year. Maybe he drops to a 1.5 win player over the next three seasons -- that still provides a bit of value. His level of play isn't that high but it is still high enough.

Another thing to consider is how many PA Markakis has accumulated. He's been a consistent 700 PA guy. If he gets worse, you may see him sit a bit, which would help his rate stats and hand the other AB to someone productive.

[AlbionHero]

Fair enough; I don't see a very big rate in decline so much as a bad season in 2013 when he was coming back from injury. He was a 2 win player in 2010, and a 2 win player last year. Maybe he drops to a 1.5 win player over the next three seasons -- that still provides a bit of value. His level of play isn't that high but it is still high enough.

Another thing to consider is how many PA Markakis has accumulated. He's been a consistent 700 PA guy. If he gets worse, you may see him sit a bit, which would help his rate stats and hand the other AB to someone productive.

Do you think a platoon of cheap players couldn't get 1.5 WAR though? Lough himself accumulated 1.9 WAR last year, and if you give him a platoon partner it could be even higher between the two of them.

When you're talking about 2 WAR and lower, you get to the point when they simply aren't worth the big contracts since you cant get similar producion at a much lower price.

Even 1.5 may be high for Markakis. Steamer has him projected at 1.2 WAR next year, with a .268/.342/.386 line, with 14 homers and -10 defensive runs saved... And 1.2 WAR is the highest projection Steamer has for him over the next 4 years.

[25 Nuggets]

Kakes' most similar batters through age 30 and their 31-34 results:

936 Gregg Jeffries - 65 OPS+, -1.2 WAR (retired age 32)

923 Al Oliver - 131 OPS+, 11.6 WAR

923 Gary Matthews - 115 OPS+, 5.9 WAR

918 Johnny Damon - 110 OPS+, 14.2 WAR

917 Chet Lemon - 112 OPS+, 8.9 WAR

912 Carney Lansford - 104 OPS+, 8.1 WAR

912 Claudell Washington - 109 OPS+. 6.2 WAR

910 Gus Bell - 79 OPS+, -1.1 WAR

906 Edgardo Alfonso - 60 OPS+, -1.7 WAR (retired age 32)

904 Harold Baines - 130 OPS+, 7.2 WAR

So, a few of these players with good comps to Markakis (over 900) flamed out quickly, but most of them kept up at least a reasonable pace. If you average them all out you get 5.8 WAR over their age 31-34 seasons, or 1.45 WAR a season.

[Can_of_corn]

That's not really fair. You don't have an emotional attachment to any player.

I always thought Nolan got a bit of a raw deal.

[25 Nuggets]

Do you think a platoon of cheap players couldn't get 1.5 WAR though? Lough himself accumulated 1.9 WAR last year, and if you give him a platoon partner it could be even higher between the two of them.

Yes I do. I think a platoon of Lough and Pearce would suit the team just fine. Hence my comment -- I think it's poor allocation of salary. I'm just not going to get bent out of shape over it. It's not like, say, Josh Hamilton's albatross of a contract.

[Dark Helmet]

Lough hasn't proven he can be a consistent hitter yet -- extending him would be a bad move unless you're talking something cheap. He'll be faster than Kakes for sure but he won't get on base as often. And he hasn't even hit arbitration yet.

I agree that giving Markakis the money is poor allocation of salary. I can live with $10 mil though. I don't think Brian Roberts is a terribly good comparison because B-Rob couldn't get on the field. Markakis should provide some value to the team.

I wasn't being serious about Lough. I doubt he would even come close to Nicks production with the bate. And I don't buy he'd make that up with his defense. Again, thats my opinion.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I wasn't being serious about Lough. I doubt he would even come close to Nicks production with the bate. And I don't buy he'd make that up with his defense. Again, thats my opinion.

What type of production do you see Lough at next year, in terms of WAR?

[Dark Helmet]

What type of production do you see Lough at next year' date=' in terms of WAR?[/quote']

Im not a WAR guy. Especially when most of Loughs will be defensive.

[Can_of_corn]

Im not a WAR guy. Especially when most of Loughs will be defensive.

Do you value run prevention the same as run production?