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MLBTradeRumors projects Cruz at 4/70


AlbionHero

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First of all I said $15 million, not $15-20 million. And who wouldn't put up $15 mill a year to have someone put up the numbers Cruz did last year? I think just about every contending team would

Why do you think Cruz will have numbers like he did in 2014 again?

In 1999 BJ Surhoff was a 34-year-old LFer for the O's, put up a 4.6 win season. He was worth 2.4 wins the next year, and was never an average regular player again.

HOFer Monte Irvin was a LFer with a 4.7 win age 34 season. The next year he slipped under 3.0 wins, and played 51 games the next year.

Lonnie Smith had a WTF 1989 season worth 8 wins as a LFer at 33. The next year he was worth 4.0 wins, the next two years 1.0 and 1.5.

Don Buford had a 5.0 win season at 34, slipped to replacement-level the next year, then retired.

David Justice was worth 5.2 wins at 34. Retired after two 0.6 win seasons at 35 and 36.

Luis Gonzalez, who may or may not have had a bit of pharmaceutical help, went 8.9, 5.0, 4.0, and 0.8 wins from 33-36.

Even the best players usually have rapid declines in their mid-30s. David Ortiz is very much an outlier.

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Wouldn't it be something if nobody gives Cruz anything close to what he wants, again? There really aren't that many potential bidders, I think. Especially with the QO on him. In that scenario I guess the Orioles can sign him to a reasonable deal.

I think, however, that Seattle does have the money and it's simply up to the GM if he wants Cruz or not.

I'm not sure about the bolded. I read that Seattle ownership nixed the idea of signing Cruz last year. Apparently, they have a policy against signing any free agents that have a PED history. I don't believe that this decision is in the GM's hands.

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I'm not sure about the bolded. I read that Seattle ownership nixed the idea of signing Cruz last year. Apparently, they have a policy against signing any free agents that have a PED history. I don't believe that this decision is in the GM's hands.

Those same reports also said they the ownership regretted nixing that deal and they were going to be more open to it this offseason, so I don't think that'll be a significant factor against Cruz going there.

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Those same reports also said they the ownership regretted nixing that deal and they were going to be more open to it this offseason, so I don't think that'll be a significant factor against Cruz going there.

No, they didn't. I know what I read. If you are saying other repoerts said that, then fine.

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The only way that Cruz signs with the Orioles is if his market just craters or he makes a financially dumb decision. I think the O's won the lottery with him last year and DD is smart enough to know that he will certainly under perform his next contract.

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I'm not sure about the bolded. I read that Seattle ownership nixed the idea of signing Cruz last year. Apparently, they have a policy against signing any free agents that have a PED history. I don't believe that this decision is in the GM's hands.

That seems like an odd stance considering the smoke around NY when Cano was there.

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Why do you think Cruz will have numbers like he did in 2014 again?

In 1999 BJ Surhoff was a 34-year-old LFer for the O's, put up a 4.6 win season. He was worth 2.4 wins the next year, and was never an average regular player again.

HOFer Monte Irvin was a LFer with a 4.7 win age 34 season. The next year he slipped under 3.0 wins, and played 51 games the next year.

Lonnie Smith had a WTF 1989 season worth 8 wins as a LFer at 33. The next year he was worth 4.0 wins, the next two years 1.0 and 1.5.

Don Buford had a 5.0 win season at 34, slipped to replacement-level the next year, then retired.

David Justice was worth 5.2 wins at 34. Retired after two 0.6 win seasons at 35 and 36.

Luis Gonzalez, who may or may not have had a bit of pharmaceutical help, went 8.9, 5.0, 4.0, and 0.8 wins from 33-36.

Even the best players usually have rapid declines in their mid-30s. David Ortiz is very much an outlier.

All valid points but what if he became almost a full time DH? It would help him with the bat, so he can rest his legs. So at what numbers would he have to achieve to be worth a contract?

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Those same reports also said they the ownership regretted nixing that deal and they were going to be more open to it this offseason, so I don't think that'll be a significant factor against Cruz going there.

They already spent all that money on Cano, I think he makes sense there. I wouldn't want to play in that park if I was a hitter though.

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I've seen no evidence that becoming a full-time DH arrests the aging process.

How would anyone measure such a thing? I am not arguing that all players don't age. Baines, Murray and Molitor are 3 players who produced offensively deep into their careers. Had those players been forced to play defense they might have been done years before. I am not saying those 3 were as good as their prime but they still produced.

I am not saying DH alone stops a player from aging but it does save wear and tear on you body. Considering his bat is his asset it can't hurt. Now I know a DH isn't as valuable as someone who plays the field.

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Why do you think Cruz will have numbers like he did in 2014 again?

In 1999 BJ Surhoff was a 34-year-old LFer for the O's, put up a 4.6 win season. He was worth 2.4 wins the next year, and was never an average regular player again.

HOFer Monte Irvin was a LFer with a 4.7 win age 34 season. The next year he slipped under 3.0 wins, and played 51 games the next year.

Lonnie Smith had a WTF 1989 season worth 8 wins as a LFer at 33. The next year he was worth 4.0 wins, the next two years 1.0 and 1.5.

Don Buford had a 5.0 win season at 34, slipped to replacement-level the next year, then retired.

David Justice was worth 5.2 wins at 34. Retired after two 0.6 win seasons at 35 and 36.

Luis Gonzalez, who may or may not have had a bit of pharmaceutical help, went 8.9, 5.0, 4.0, and 0.8 wins from 33-36.

Even the best players usually have rapid declines in their mid-30s. David Ortiz is very much an outlier.

You list all these players and what happened with them, and yes most times players decline in their mid 30's. But just as i can't guarantee Cruz will be as good as he was this year, you can't guarantee me he won't. It's really a dumb argument, because no one can win it. Even if Cruz produced 3/4 what he did this year over the next 2 years with 30 HR's and 80= RBIs he would be worth a 3 year contract IMO.

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You list all these players and what happened with them, and yes most times players decline in their mid 30's. But just as i can't guarantee Cruz will be as good as he was this year, you can't guarantee me he won't. It's really a dumb argument, because no one can win it. Even if Cruz produced 3/4 what he did this year over the next 2 years with 30 HR's and 80= RBIs he would be worth a 3 year contract IMO.

It's a dumb argument to point out that almost all MLB players lose a significant portion of their peak value in their mid-30s? I would guess that 90%+ of players are worse at 35-36 than they were at 33-34. A career year, or near career year, at Cruz' age almost guarantees a decline the next year. This is basically the story of the 2014 Yankees - sign a bunch of really good old guys and watch them spend half the year on the DL. Carlos Beltran is so awesome that he is definitely worth a three year deal even though he's old... wait... what?

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How would anyone measure such a thing? I am not arguing that all players don't age. Baines, Murray and Molitor are 3 players who produced offensively deep into their careers. Had those players been forced to play defense they might have been done years before. I am not saying those 3 were as good as their prime but they still produced.

I am not saying DH alone stops a player from aging but it does save wear and tear on you body. Considering his bat is his asset it can't hurt. Now I know a DH isn't as valuable as someone who plays the field.

Eddie Murray became mostly a DH in 1994, and from that point on he was worth less than one win in four years. Not only is a DH less valuable than someone who can play the field, it's also harder to hit as a DH. The majority of players hit worse as DHs than they do when playing the field.

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