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MLBTradeRumors projects Cruz at 4/70


AlbionHero

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It's a dumb argument to point out that almost all MLB players lose a significant portion of their peak value in their mid-30s? I would guess that 90%+ of players are worse at 35-36 than they were at 33-34. A career year, or near career year, at Cruz' age almost guarantees a decline the next year. This is basically the story of the 2014 Yankees - sign a bunch of really good old guys and watch them spend half the year on the DL. Carlos Beltran is so awesome that he is definitely worth a three year deal even though he's old... wait... what?

No, I was referring to the fact that neither of us actually know what the next 2-3 years looks like for Cruz and how he plays. Either of us could be wrong. He could fall off completely or he could maintain a .270 avg with 30 HR's and 100 RBI's. If he did that for the Orioles, I'd happily hand him $15 million for 3 years

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No, I was referring to the fact that neither of us actually know what the next 2-3 years looks like for Cruz and how he plays. Either of us could be wrong. He could fall off completely or he could maintain a .270 avg with 30 HR's and 100 RBI's. If he did that for the Orioles, I'd happily hand him $15 million for 3 years

The assumption has to be that he's going to follow typical aging patterns and lose a significant percentage of his value over the next several years. Betting on your guy beating the odds is a sure way to fail.

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Why do you think Cruz will have numbers like he did in 2014 again?

In 1999 BJ Surhoff was a 34-year-old LFer for the O's, put up a 4.6 win season. He was worth 2.4 wins the next year, and was never an average regular player again.

HOFer Monte Irvin was a LFer with a 4.7 win age 34 season. The next year he slipped under 3.0 wins, and played 51 games the next year.

Lonnie Smith had a WTF 1989 season worth 8 wins as a LFer at 33. The next year he was worth 4.0 wins, the next two years 1.0 and 1.5.

Don Buford had a 5.0 win season at 34, slipped to replacement-level the next year, then retired.

David Justice was worth 5.2 wins at 34. Retired after two 0.6 win seasons at 35 and 36.

Luis Gonzalez, who may or may not have had a bit of pharmaceutical help, went 8.9, 5.0, 4.0, and 0.8 wins from 33-36.

Even the best players usually have rapid declines in their mid-30s. David Ortiz is very much an outlier.

Over time, 35 is probably the new 30. 35 might be the new 28 going back to Monte Irvin's time.

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Over time, 35 is probably the new 30. 35 might be the new 28 going back to Monte Irvin's time.

Are you saying that a 35 year old today has as much left in the tank as a 28 or 30 year did years ago? I don't think the evidence supports that. If anything I've seen evidence that with increased PED testing there are fewer productive players in their mid-to-late 30s than there were 10 or 15 years ago.

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To give Nelson the benefit of the doubt, he was a PED guy so maybe he has more in the tank than your average mid 30 player.

I guess the O's could always take the Yanks' approach and get every last drop of benefit out of the PEDs, then act shocked, amazed and relieved when the guy gets suspended and they get salary relief.

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The assumption has to be that he's going to follow typical aging patterns and lose a significant percentage of his value over the next several years. Betting on your guy beating the odds is a sure way to fail.

Well, I grant you that it would not be a high percentage play, and may seem destined to failure, but I wouldn't say that it is sure to fail in such absolute terms. There have been recent successes along those lines (Ortiz). He was saying $15 million/year for three years, and that type of discount from the asking/market price does mitigate the age factor somewhat. 3/$39 million would be even better, IMO, and would probably do it for me.

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Are you saying that a 35 year old today has as much left in the tank as a 28 or 30 year did years ago? I don't think the evidence supports that. If anything I've seen evidence that with increased PED testing there are fewer productive players in their mid-to-late 30s than there were 10 or 15 years ago.

I'm saying I think it makes sense that a 35 year old today should have as much left in the tank as someone several years younger who played in the Negro Leagues in the 1930's - especially considering all the improvements in nutrition, exercise science and equipment, transportation, etc, etc, and etc. I'm not following what PED testing has to do with the subject.

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I'm saying I think it makes sense that a 35 year old today should have as much left in the tank as someone several years younger who played in the Negro Leagues in the 1930's - especially considering all the improvements in nutrition, exercise science and equipment, transportation, etc, etc, and etc. I'm not following what PED testing has to do with the subject.

I think it makes sense that nutrition, exercise science, transportation, equipment and the like have given all modern players an advantage over their counterparts who may have played in the 1930s or 40s. So maybe a 35- or 36-year-old Nelson Cruz would be among the better players in the 1952 AL. But the best 27-year-old players today would be better than the best 27-year-olds in 1952.

So Nelson Cruz would have to take advantage of all of these advances just to maintain a career as long as someone from 50 or 60 years ago.

PEDs come into play because of the oft-stated effect that steroids postpone aging. It is true that players from the 1990s and early 2000s seem to have maintained their peak performance levels a bit longer than players from previous eras, and that effect seems to be less today (can't find link to substantiate, just going on memory of things I've read). Whether the PED link is causal is certainly up for debate, but I wouldn't totally dismiss it. Anyway, that link kind of quantifies what you're saying, and if anything 35 today is the equivalent of 33 many years ago. But 35 is not the new 30 or 28.

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Barry Bonds is pretty much the poster boy for steroids extending a career. He did like 1.300 OPS from age 36+... without steroids being rampant in the league you'd never see guys playing at that high of a level when they're in their late 30s/early 40s anymore.

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No, I was referring to the fact that neither of us actually know what the next 2-3 years looks like for Cruz and how he plays. Either of us could be wrong. He could fall off completely or he could maintain a .270 avg with 30 HR's and 100 RBI's. If he did that for the Orioles, I'd happily hand him $15 million for 3 years

You certainly have to discount from current value due to the high risk of age related decline. It's a matter of how steep the discount needs to be. That depends in part whether you think you can ascertain reasons why the risk is higher or lower than average for a certain player.

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http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/10/the-mariners-are-really-interested-in-hanley-ramirez-and-victor-martinez/

Victor Martinez is Seattle's top priority. What does that do to Cruz's market? What teams are left that would pay him what he is looking for? I think NL teams are out, leaving us and who? Not NY or BOS as they are set in the OF and/or DH.

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Some recent quotes (10th of November) from Nellie and some cause for optimisism that he will resign with the Orioles for 2-3 years

http://www.notitimes.com/2014/11/10/nelson-cruz-quiere-quedarse-con-orioles/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

a basic translation

Nelson Cruz will opt for free agency this winter , but the maximum slugger last season in the majors has all the world's desire to remain with the Baltimore Orioles for several years.

" My first choice is to Baltimore, I want to stay there, but I know that baseball is a business and anything can happen ," Cruz said in an interview for the television program Sports Week .

The outfielder hit 40 homers for the Orioles , who hired him for $ 8 million after rejecting a qualified Texas Rangers deal.

For the second straight year , Cruz received a qualifying offer , now by the Orioles. But hander hopes to sign a multiyear contract .

"It's what all players want , two or three year contract . It's what I hope , "said Cruz. " There are no figures on what I aspire to win, my priority is to get several years."

He said he did not even have a conversation with your agent about which route to take plan , but said he would remain a competitive team.

"We have not yet made any decisions, but we are studying our options , to thereby know what is best for us ," said the 34 year old slugger . "If I tell you that a player always wants to be on a contending team with a real chance to go to postseason , one he wants to win to go to the playoffs and eventually win a World Series."

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