Cruz - "I love the organization. The way they treat their players is amazing."

[Can_of_corn]

Given the ratio of success with all picks, the odds are, the Orioles got the better end of that deal.

I doubt the team would have gone as far as they did, if they hadn't his bat all season.

And here I thought I was being clear in my post when at least two other posters misunderstood me.

I was talking of the pick the O's will get for Cruz when he signs with someone else.

I love my draft picks but tracking a second round pick when he isn't even the same player the O's would have picked...that would be nuts.

[Redskins Rick]

And here I thought I was being clear in my post when at least two other posters misunderstood me.

I was talking of the pick the O's will get for Cruz when he signs with someone else.

You were clear as rain, the 2nd time, I read your post.

Opps.

LOL

[weams]

Scherzer? Lester? Han Ram?

Cruz def seems to fit our team the best though.

Scherzer is 200 million. Lester is Way over rated. Check his FIP. Really, Lester is the one you DON'T want ( I think he turned down 119). Hanley could not play a position for Buck. He'd be a good DH. How much is is he after? 100? None of them I'd want to be over paying for.

[Mayor McCheese]

Who is a better free agent?

Nick Markakis :eektf:

[weams]

Nick Markakis :eektf:

Really. He might be.

[Mayor McCheese]

Really. He might be.

In Mr. Angelos' eyes, he's the #1 FA on the market.

[Can_of_corn]

In Mr. Angelos' eyes, he's the #1 FA on the market.

I don't think the O's are foremost on Mr Angelos' mind right now.

[Mayor McCheese]

i don't think the o's are foremost on mr angelos' mind right now.

veto'd

[weams]

I don't think the O's are foremost on Mr Angelos' mind right now.

I think Nick will be back from hunting soon and he will have his press conference. I don't think Peter will be there either. The Angelos family is sure to be represented.

[Dipper9]

I think Nick will be back from hunting soon and he will have his press conference. I don't think Peter will be there either. The Angelos family is sure to be represented.

This is an excellent point. Over the past few years, John has been at all of the Orioles related events. We only saw or heard from Peter on a few occasions, and that was when he was recognizing the great job that Buck, Dan, and the team have done.

I know I'm in the minority, and most people just want Peter gone, but I'm happy the man got to see a winner before he has to step aside from owning the team. And if John is truly the new face of the ownership, well, he's done a good job in the past 3 years.

[Ed-die... Ed-die]

This is an excellent point. Over the past few years, John has been at all of the Orioles related events. We only saw or heard from Peter on a few occasions, and that was when he was recognizing the great job that Buck, Dan, and the team have done.

I know I'm in the minority, and most people just want Peter gone, but I'm happy the man got to see a winner before he has to step aside from owning the team. And if John is truly the new face of the ownership, well, he's done a good job in the past 3 years.

Agreed

[webbrick2010]

Last year for Cruz, Texas got Luis Ortiz a 19 yo RHP who logged 20 inning between Rookie and A ball, had a 1.7 ERA and 1.08 WHIP

Last year for Norris, the Astros got Derrick Fisher a 20 yo OF'er who had 172 PA between rookie and A ball with a .310/.386/.419/.806 slash line

Both are solid prospects, but are several years from the show if they ever make it.

Who could we get for Cruz? Stud or Dud?

[weams]

Last year for Cruz, Texas got Luis Ortiz a 19 yo RHP who logged 20 inning between Rookie and A ball, had a 1.7 ERA and 1.08 WHIP

Last year for Norris, the Astros got Derrick Fisher a 20 yo OF'er who had 172 PA between rookie and A ball with a .310/.386/.419/.806 slash line

Both are solid prospects, but are several years from the show if they ever make it.

Who could we get for Cruz? Stud or Dud?

We will know in five years.

[weams]

This is an excellent point. Over the past few years, John has been at all of the Orioles related events. We only saw or heard from Peter on a few occasions, and that was when he was recognizing the great job that Buck, Dan, and the team have done.

I know I'm in the minority, and most people just want Peter gone, but I'm happy the man got to see a winner before he has to step aside from owning the team. And if John is truly the new face of the ownership, well, he's done a good job in the past 3 years.

Louis has represented the Orioles very well when publicly speaking, as he did at all of the legend Statue events. He even said hello to me on Eutaw street last year. I like him.

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-reward-nelson-cruzs-overconfidence/

Fifty-seven million dollars, four years. For the time being, let’s ignore the draft pick. (The Mariners are giving up the No. 19 draft pick.) What sort of overpay does that look like? We can’t, of course, know exactly how the future is going to play out, but we can make some assumptions to try to get in the ballpark. Let’s say an average win costs something like $6.5 million. Increase 5% a year. Steamer projects Cruz to be worth 1.5 wins. Decrease by half a win a year, because Cruz is 34 and five more months. Following those inputs, a four-year contract would be expected to be worth about $20 million.

How about ZiPS, instead of Steamer? ZiPS is a little more optimistic, at least in terms of overall WAR. Going through the same math, a four-year contract would be expected to be worth about $29 million.

What if we start at 2.5 WAR, instead of 2? That gets us up to $48 million. And if we change the cost of a win to $7 million flat, that gets us up to $52 million. If we start all the way up at 3 WAR, that gets us to $67 million, which is the rough equivalent of Cruz’s actual contract when you then factor in the cost of giving up the draft pick. You could say, then, that the Mariners are paying Cruz as if he’s an above-average player today. It’s not an unreasonable belief, given that Cruz just led baseball in dingers, but it’s a belief others clearly don’t share. Cruz, most simply, has one skill. He’s coming off by far his best season since 2010, and he’ll turn 35 before the next All-Star break. By generous estimates, the Mariners are paying Cruz fairly. By another objective estimate, the Mariners are paying Cruz twice as much as they should.

Last year, 5%. Cruz performed better because he hit the ball more often. It’s a simple explanation.

It’s also a tricky thing to bet on, because Cruz also significantly trimmed his strikeouts in 2010. Then they came right back, and his wRC+ dropped 31 points. So, it’s good that Cruz just struck out less often, but he’s done that before, and it reversed itself, so the safest assumption is that Cruz will look like his longer-term self. He wasn’t pitched any differently, indicating there wasn’t a change in Cruz’s scouting report. Once you adjust for ballpark, Cruz faced basically the same pitching patterns, and he simply did a little more damage.

And the season ahead is the season we understand best. In the seasons beyond that, Cruz is probably going to be bad for the payroll. What I want is a word somewhere in between “probably” and “certainly”. This is an almost definite overpay. But to determine the extent, you need to figure out all the right conditions, including how much the Mariners ought to prioritize the immediate future over the more distant future. There were alternatives to this, but this also didn’t cost a young major-leaguer. It’s the young major-leaguers the Mariners need to be careful with, because their low salaries help to offset salaries guaranteed to players like Nelson Cruz.