Good Camden Depot article on Brian Matusz

[Frobby]

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/11/brian-matusz-what-changed-in-2014.html

In 2014, Matusz's ERA was slightly lower than in 2013 (from 3.53 to 3.48), but there were some worrisome signs. He struck out nearly a half batter more per nine innings (from 8.82 to 9.23), which was one positive. But his walks per nine also rose slightly (2.82 to 2.96), his HR/FB rate normalized (5.6% to 9.2%; career 10.5%), and his groundball percentage dropped by about 5% (leading to more fly balls). After giving up only three home runs in 2013, Matusz allowed seven in 2014. He was worse not only against right-handed batters (.372 wOBA), but also left-handed batters (.276 wOBA). The 50-point wOBA jump against lefties is the bigger concern, since Matusz's job, at the very least, is to retire those same-handed hitters. Those struggles contributed to an underwhelming 0.3 fWAR/0.0 bWAR season.

I've never been a Matusz-basher, but I did not think he looked as good against LHB in 2014 as he had in the past. At the end of the season, even Ortiz seemed to be figuring him out a little bit. His last two at bats against Matusz were a fly ball caught at the wall and a line drive double. Assuming Matusz will cost $3 mm+ to retain, I think it's time to move on.

[fearthenoodle]

Even if he only gets $2.7MM as MLBTR's arbitration calculator suggested, it is time to move on. They need at least one spot in the bullpen that they can use to option guys back and forth from Norfolk, and non-tendering (or trading) Matusz is the most logical pathway to making that happen.

[DrungoHazewood]

No reason to pay a decent situational lefty $3-4M. There's never a shortage of pitchers who have his basic resume, most will work for about $1M a year.

[Tony-OH]

You have to imagine the business side of the game will make it very hard for the Orioles to retain him in 2015. I could see him added to a trade package or more likely non-tendered.

[25 Nuggets]

Bleacher Report ranked Matusz the 7th worst draft pick of the past 10 years. That's a little harsh. But Brian has certainly not performed as advertised. He was supposed to be a four-pitch starter with excellent control. I can't figure out what they were looking at.

It's time to move on. Maybe he'll be a stud with the Cubs like his buddy Arrieta.

[O's84]

No brainier, just let him go.

[Can_of_corn]

Bleacher Report ranked Matusz the 7th worst draft pick of the past 10 years. That's a little harsh. But Brian has certainly not performed as advertised. He was supposed to be a four-pitch starter with excellent control. I can't figure out what they were looking at.

It's time to move on. Maybe he'll be a stud with the Cubs like his buddy Arrieta.

Link? Because that is total hogwash. Drungo gave some examples of players in his own draft class that have been bigger disappointments.

[Tony-OH]

Bleacher Report ranked Matusz the 7th worst draft pick of the past 10 years. That's a little harsh. But Brian has certainly not performed as advertised. He was supposed to be a four-pitch starter with excellent control. I can't figure out what they were looking at.

It's time to move on. Maybe he'll be a stud with the Cubs like his buddy Arrieta.

For some reason, his stuff backed up. I saw him in the minors and loved him. He pitched off his changeup and curveball and spotted his fastball. When he got to the big leagues, Wieters changed him up and made him pitch off his fastball and things didn't work out as well. But they learned and by the end of 2010, Matusz put up a 2.18 ERA, .211 BAA, .599 OPSA, with a 52-16 K-BB ratio in 62 innings over his 11 starts.

Then in 2011 he came back out of shape with a new pitching coach and his stuff just backed up and honestly it's never recovered. His curve has morphed into a nice slider but his change, which was his best pitch during his successful times his disappeared in the bullpen role for the most part.

If I were a team looking for a bargain this offseason, I'd sign Matusz with the intent on trying to make him a starter again. He needs to know that he may have to go to AAA and prove he can pitch in that role again, but I'd see if he could bring that change back and add that into his slider. Now, one of Matusz' problems has always been is inability to go deep into games so at best you are probably looking at 5-6 inning 5th starter, but if I was a second Division team looking for a bargain I'd give it a shot.

[backwardsk]

Link? Because that is total hogwash. Drungo gave some examples of players in his own draft class that have been bigger disappointments.

Hell, Rowell, Hobgood, and possibly Snyder are worse just for the Orioles.

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[canonfaz]

For some reason, his stuff backed up. I saw him in the minors and loved him. He pitched off his changeup and curveball and spotted his fastball. When he got to the big leagues, Wieters changed him up and made him pitch off his fastball and things didn't work out as well. But they learned and by the end of 2010, Matusz put up a 2.18 ERA, .211 BAA, .599 OPSA, with a 52-16 K-BB ratio in 62 innings over his 11 starts.

Then in 2011 he came back out of shape with a new pitching coach and his stuff just backed up and honestly it's never recovered. His curve has morphed into a nice slider but his change, which was his best pitch during his successful times his disappeared in the bullpen role for the most part.

If I were a team looking for a bargain this offseason, I'd sign Matusz with the intent on trying to make him a starter again. He needs to know that he may have to go to AAA and prove he can pitch in that role again, but I'd see if he could bring that change back and add that into his slider. Now, one of Matusz' problems has always been is inability to go deep into games so at best you are probably looking at 5-6 inning 5th starter, but if I was a second Division team looking for a bargain I'd give it a shot.

Good points. He seemed to take a step back also with Buck's whole time to the plate emphasis. It really is a shame that the pitcher we saw at the end of 2010 never showed back up again.

[spiritof66]

I rarely make predictions, but here's one: Matusz will flourish elsewhere, probably as a set-up man and more likely in the NL -- the greater the change of scenery, the better for him.

But I agree that he's not now worth the salary and roster spot to the Orioles. The Cavalry Diaspora continues.

[Frobby]

For some reason, his stuff backed up. I saw him in the minors and loved him. He pitched off his changeup and curveball and spotted his fastball. When he got to the big leagues, Wieters changed him up and made him pitch off his fastball and things didn't work out as well. But they learned and by the end of 2010, Matusz put up a 2.18 ERA, .211 BAA, .599 OPSA, with a 52-16 K-BB ratio in 62 innings over his 11 starts.

Then in 2011 he came back out of shape with a new pitching coach and his stuff just backed up and honestly it's never recovered. His curve has morphed into a nice slider but his change, which was his best pitch during his successful times his disappeared in the bullpen role for the most part.

If I were a team looking for a bargain this offseason, I'd sign Matusz with the intent on trying to make him a starter again. He needs to know that he may have to go to AAA and prove he can pitch in that role again, but I'd see if he could bring that change back and add that into his slider. Now, one of Matusz' problems has always been is inability to go deep into games so at best you are probably looking at 5-6 inning 5th starter, but if I was a second Division team looking for a bargain I'd give it a shot.

Hello, Padres. I do feel that we somehow botched Matusz, though it clearly is partly his own fault, as well. He had a very credible season as a starter for us in 2010, finishing very strong as you noted, but everything went downhill from there. I don't think its the fault of the guys who selected him in the draft, or the guys who worked with him in the minors before he got called up, or Rick Kranitz, his 2010 pitching coach. But he's never been the same since then.

[InsideCoroner]

Jesse Orosco would probably come out of retirement for $1M. Wait, that's assuming he's retired. For all I know, right now he might be trying to get Julio Franco to chase something out of the zone.

[DrungoHazewood]

Bleacher Report ranked Matusz the 7th worst draft pick of the past 10 years. That's a little harsh.

That's not just harsh, it's ridiculous. He was a consensus top 5 pick that year, so at the time it was completely justified. No real controversy there besides the normal "I think the guy taken at 6 was better than the guy taken at 3" stuff. Not even remotely close to a Hobgood, who some had as a late 1st rounder when he was taken in the top 10.

And even in retrospect, there are #1 overall picks in the last 10 years who have not/barely played in the majors, including several who've had plenty of time to progress through the minors. Tim Beckham, #1 overall out of that same draft class, has 8 MLB plate appearances despite spending most of the past four years in AAA.

Bleacher Report is consistently unimpressive.

[webbrick2010]

It wasn't until this year that I heard that Brian has Asthma, and I think that explain a lot

1. Pitched well in college in San Diego (low humididty, low pollen, low pollution).

2. Always looked flushed on hot Baltimore days (Baltimore off the scale pollen, high humidity, high air pollution)

I have to wonder if the medical staff new about his Asthma when they drafted him to be a TOR starting pitcher in Baltimore.

I don't think BMat will ever be a successful starter but I think he would be better for a California, Arizona, or Texas team (not Houston)