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2014 #5 Prospect: Dariel Alvarez


Tony-OH

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I don't follow prospects as much as a lot on here, but I never really thought of Avery/Hoes as "quality prospects".

I thought Hoes had some possibility of success as a decent OBP, low power guy. Avery had speed but poor contact skills and I never liked his chances of sticking. Ironically, in his limited time in MLB, Avery has a higher OBP (.307 in 107 PA) than Hoes (.288 in 321 PA). At least both made it to the majors.

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It's a pretty weak system compared to the recent past. Avery/Hoes were there because of potential - just because they didn't pan out doesn't mean they did not have quality prospect status at one point.

Our GM has, IMO, sacrificed a good part of our future to make the playoffs. The major league team was strong this year and could be a contender again next year, but we have traded away or forfeited Hader, EdRod, a first round pick, first round supplemental and a second round pick.

It is pure fiction to hint this year's list of prospects holds up against most of the recent vintages of the past five plus years or the relative standing of our current prospects versus other teams.

Sometimes just a matter of 1 or 2 players. Schoop and Gausman could arguably still be in the minors. Our minor league "system" would appear significantly better, and perhaps in top 10.

Looking at these things in isolation distorts the holistic view just a bit. I tend to prefer viewing minors + 3 years or less service time.

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It's a pretty weak system compared to the recent past. Avery/Hoes were there because of potential - just because they didn't pan out doesn't mean they did not have quality prospect status at one point.

Our GM has, IMO, sacrificed a good part of our future to make the playoffs. The major league team was strong this year and could be a contender again next year, but we have traded away or forfeited Hader, EdRod, a first round pick, first round supplemental and a second round pick.

It is pure fiction to hint this year's list of prospects holds up against most of the recent vintages of the past five plus years or the relative standing of our current prospects versus other teams.

There's no question our farm system would be stronger if it still had Hader, EdRod, the three picks, and a few other pieces DD traded away. I haven't supported every trade DD has made, but the objective isn't to have a good-looking minor league system, the objective is to have success at the major league level and be able to sustain it. Contending teams tend to trade "could help me later" for "can help me right now," that's just part of the business.

Whether those trades were worth it depends on two things: (1) did they help the team succeed, and (2) do you still have some decent talent left in your system? Not every move worked out, but I'll take 96 wins, an AL East title and an ALDS series win as a good starting point, and Norris, Cruz and Miller helped get us there. We're likely to get a 1st rounder back if Cruz signs elsewhere, and it's possible Norris will warrant a QO, depending on how 2015 goes for him. Ubaldo didn't help much in 2014, but we don't know the longer-term outcome of that move yet.

I also think the last three years have shown that the classic "draft and develop" farm system isn't the only way to acquire cheap talent. DD's ability to find value elsewhere has allowed him to cash in some farm system chips. Chen, Gonzalez, McLouth, Pearce, Valencia/Lough, Flaherty and McFarland are examples.

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It's a pretty weak system compared to the recent past. Avery/Hoes were there because of potential - just because they didn't pan out doesn't mean they did not have quality prospect status at one point.

Our GM has, IMO, sacrificed a good part of our future to make the playoffs. The major league team was strong this year and could be a contender again next year, but we have traded away or forfeited Hader, EdRod, a first round pick, first round supplemental and a second round pick.

It is pure fiction to hint this year's list of prospects holds up against most of the recent vintages of the past five plus years or the relative standing of our current prospects versus other teams.

I thought Avery and Hoes were low upside, reach prospects. But that is just me. And I like making the playoffs.

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There's no question our farm system would be stronger if it still had Hader, EdRod, the three picks, and a few other pieces DD traded away. I haven't supported every trade DD has made, but the objective isn't to have a good-looking minor league system, the objective is to have success at the major league level and be able to sustain it. Contending teams tend to trade "could help me later" for "can help me right now," that's just part of the business.

Whether those trades were worth it depends on two things: (1) did they help the team succeed, and (2) do you still have some decent talent left in your system? Not every move worked out, but I'll take 96 wins, an AL East title and an ALDS series win as a good starting point, and Norris, Cruz and Miller helped get us there. We're likely to get a 1st rounder back if Cruz signs elsewhere, and it's possible Norris will warrant a QO, depending on how 2015 goes for him. Ubaldo didn't help much in 2014, but we don't know the longer-term outcome of that move yet.

I also think the last three years have shown that the classic "draft and develop" farm system isn't the only way to acquire cheap talent. DD's ability to find value elsewhere has allowed him to cash in some farm system chips. Chen, Gonzalez, McLouth, Pearce, Valencia/Lough, Flaherty and McFarland are examples.

I think that you are quite right with this summary.

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