Nelson Cruz Officially Declines Orioles Qualifying Offer (and 3 yr deal?)

[JayThomas]

The real point I was trying to make is that of our free agents I would rank Markakis MUCH lower than Miller or Cruz. These two are/can be difference makers. At this point in his career, Nick is basically a full time Joe Orsulak.

Great comp. Nick is replaceable. I can't think of anyone else who is comparable to the Miller we saw last year. The question is, is Miller going to be close to that guy over the next 3/4 years? If so, he is much more of a difference-maker than the Markakis that we saw last year.

Nick's performance is probably less volatile, but declining and more replaceable. Miller's performance is more volatile, not necessarily declining (few innings on that arm), and less replaceable.

[MarylandAaron]

Andrew Miller has been an above average reliever for a single season in his career. His career walk rate is almost 5. I like Andrew Miller but he is probably going to be among the 15 best paid relievers in baseball and it is possible that he falls off a cliff. I think Markakis is a safer bet than Miller.

Actually he's had three. Andrew Miller's career as a reliever: 133.1 IP, 86 H, 38 ER, 54 BB, 202 K, 3.6 BB/9, 13.6 K/9, 2.57 ERA. Plus you can throw out all his pre-2012 numbers, I think. He's a totally different pitcher out of the bullpen. I know people don't like investing high dollars in relievers, but I think we should make an exception for Miller. This guy is truly dominant.

[gmelson26]

Miller should be top priority. Then Cruz.

I don't think we're going to outbid DET for Miller. I think they have to be desperate for him.

[weams]

[MurphDogg]

Actually he's had three. Andrew Miller's career as a reliever: 133.1 IP, 86 H, 38 ER, 54 BB, 202 K, 3.6 BB/9, 13.6 K/9, 2.57 ERA. Plus you can throw out all his pre-2012 numbers, I think. He's a totally different pitcher out of the bullpen. I know people don't like investing high dollars in relievers, but I think we should make an exception for Miller. This guy is truly dominant.

In 2012 Andrew Miller finished in a tie for 50th in the American League in rWAR among relievers with 0.8. In 2013 there were more than 60 relievers in the American League with a higher rWAR than his 0.6.

Truly dominant indeed.

Also those aren't his career numbers as a reliever. Those are his numbers between 2012 and 2014, so saying "plus you can throw out all of his pre-2012 numbers" is absurd, given that you have already done that.

[Guest]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hear <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> are steadfast on 3-yr bid to Cruz, who wants 5. More current optimism that something gets done with Markakis</p>— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="

">November 12, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[clapdiddy]

In 2012 Andrew Miller finished in a tie for 50th in the American League in rWAR among relievers with 0.8. In 2013 there were more than 60 relievers in the American League with a higher rWAR than his 0.6.

Truly dominant indeed.

Also those aren't his career numbers as a reliever. Those are his numbers between 2012 and 2014, so saying "plus you can throw out all of his pre-2012 numbers" is absurd, given that you have already done that.

I think we got Miller at a great time at a great cost. I think he's a very good reliever, and he very well could be the same guy he was last year for a good stretch. That being said, he's not THAT dominant that this team needs to give him basically a blank check.

[backwardsk]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hear <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> are steadfast on 3-yr bid to Cruz, who wants 5. More current optimism that something gets done with Markakis</p>? Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="

">November 12, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I wonder if they are close on AAV. And, if so, how much that is. If Cruz can get 5 years elsewhere, God bless him.

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[MurphDogg]

Right, maybe I should have rephrased. I was basically trying to explain why I threw out his numbers pre-2012 when you brought up his career walk rate. Okay, so you say he was below average in 2012 and 2013. I'm not sure exactly how that WAR figure is calculated, but overall his relief numbers from 2012 to 2014 look pretty great to me.

I didn't say he was below average, I said he wasn't above average. He was basically an average pitcher in 2012 and 2013. There were 50 or so relievers better than him, so that works out to 3 per pen. Bullpens typically have seven pitchers and on an average team he would have been 4th in WAR, so right in the middle.

Also, he was used like an average reliever in 2012 and 2013, he had a slightly below average leverage index in 2012 (fifth among Red Sox relievers) and slightly above average leverage index in 2013 (fifth among Red Sox relievers).

He was great in 2014, but going into 2014 he was basically Matt Albers (who had a nearly identical leverage index when they were teammates in 2012).

[MarylandAaron]

In 2012 Andrew Miller finished in a tie for 50th in the American League in rWAR among relievers with 0.8. In 2013 there were more than 60 relievers in the American League with a higher rWAR than his 0.6.

Truly dominant indeed.

Also those aren't his career numbers as a reliever. Those are his numbers between 2012 and 2014, so saying "plus you can throw out all of his pre-2012 numbers" is absurd, given that you have already done that.

Right, I should have rephrased that. I did take out his pre-2012 numbers and I was trying to explain why. Regardless, I'm not seeing how rWAR proves he was below average in 2012 and 2013.

[weams]

Right, I should have rephrased that. I did take out his pre-2012 numbers and I was trying to explain why. Regardless, I'm not seeing how rWAR proves he was below average in 2012 and 2013.

If he had not had lis franc in 2013 he would have been good. Last year he was great. I am one of his biggest fans. He is not worth 8 million a year. Not. Does not pitch enough. And the difference between him in leverage and Tommy Hunter in leverage is minuscule if you throw out saves.

[Can_of_corn]

I wonder if they are close on AAV. And, if so, how much that is. If Cruz can get 5 years elsewhere, God bless him.

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It's the team that signs him that will be needing your prayers.

[Can_of_corn]

If he had not had lis franc in 2013 he would have been good. Last year he was great. I am one of his biggest fans. He is not worth 8 million a year. Not. Does not pitch enough. And the difference between him in leverage and Tommy Hunter in leverage is minuscule if you throw out saves.

Miller wants to close.

[MarylandAaron]

If he had not had lis franc in 2013 he would have been good. Last year he was great. I am one of his biggest fans. He is not worth 8 million a year. Not. Does not pitch enough. And the difference between him in leverage and Tommy Hunter in leverage is minuscule if you throw out saves.

Okay, so do you think the lis franc was affecting his performance back then, and now we are seeing Andrew Miller's real stuff? And do you think his current level is unsustainable, or that he just isn't worth the 8 million a year?

[weams]

Okay, so do you think the lis franc was affecting his performance back then, and now we are seeing Andrew Miller's real stuff? And do you think his current level is unsustainable, or that he just isn't worth the 8 million a year?

No. He was fine, got a lis franc and got done. He just doesn't pitch enough. Lis franc does not go away. I bet in the next four years it will be back. Then the hip goes, Then the back.