2014 #9 Prospect: Mike Yastrzemski - OF

[Frobby]

Comparing performance at a certain age when one player is drafted at 18 out of high school and another is drafted 22 out of college is not really a fair comparison.

Yaz was drafted at 22 in June for 2013 from a major college program. He has quickly moved through the low minors. He has shown an ability to hit for a .360 OBP in the low minors. He is about to have a full season in the high minors. If he can continue to show the ability to have a high OBP along with his fundamentally sound overall play then he probably has a good shot at a major league career. But he has a lot yet to prove in the high minors. He will play most of 2015 at 24. That is not old for a college player drafted in 2013.

I think it is pretty fair. Yaz chose to go to college after being drafted in the 36th round out of high school. He chose to stay for his senior year of college after being drafted in the 30th round as a junior. He could be further along in the minors than he is, but he chose to do his development in college instead of as a professional. I would have expected him to move quickly through the low minors considering the choices he made. But a college guy like Christian Walker is a year younger and a level further along than Yaz is, because he was good enough to be a 4th round pick as a college junior, and good enough to start one level higher up after being drafted.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think it is pretty fair. Yaz chose to go to college after being drafted in the 36th round out of high school. He chose to stay for his senior year of college after being drafted in the 30th round as a junior. He could be further along in the minors than he is, but he chose to do his development in college instead of as a professional.

And that's a reflection of where he was as a ballplayer at those times. I wouldn't say he necessarily chose college, or chose to stay for his senior year. The choosing was done for him by the scouts who graded him as a very marginal prospect. Now, sometimes a player will have a breakout after spending years stalled at a lower level. Hopefully we're seeing that here.

[wildcard]

I think it is pretty fair. Yaz chose to go to college after being drafted in the 36th round out of high school. He chose to stay for his senior year of college after being drafted in the 30th round as a junior. He could be further along in the minors than he is, but he chose to do his development in college instead of as a professional. I would have expected him to move quickly through the low minors considering the choices he made. But a college guy like Christian Walker is a year younger and a level further along than Yaz is, because he was good enough to be a 4th round pick as a college junior, and good enough to start one level higher up after being drafted.

You are comparing a college player to another college player which is a fair thing to do. But in truth we does know how good Yaz will be or whether he was just started to low in the O's system which helped him quickly advance. We should find out by how he does in the high minors this year.

The comparison to Trout, Manny and Harper is pretty unfair. Those players are the 1% that are HOF candidates. The other 99% are quite different.

[weams]

You are comparing a college player to another college player which is a fair thing to do. But in truth we does know how good Yaz will be or whether he was just started to low in the O's system which helped him quickly advance. We should find out by how he does in the high minors this year.

The comparison to Trout, Manny and Harper is pretty unfair. Those players are the 1% that are HOF candidates. The other 99% are quite different.

And yet only one of that group will make it. It's not like we are talking hall of famers. We are talking th good players of today. Most of them don't start late. Or go to college for four years. Good players. Not hall of famers. That is why Mike has a ceiling of fourth outfielder or regular on a second division team.

[Frobby]

You are comparing a college player to another college player which is a fair thing to do. But in truth we does know how good Yaz will be or whether he was just started to low in the O's system which helped him quickly advance. We should find out by how he does in the high minors this year.

The comparison to Trout, Manny and Harper is pretty unfair. Those players are the 1% that are HOF candidates. The other 99% are quite different.

First, of course you never know with certainty how a prospect will turn out. There have been guys who were starting in AA at 24 who turned out well, but they're pretty rare. Just to give an example, in 2006 221 players debuted in the majors. 126 were under age 25, while 95 were 25 or older. Of those, 32 players who were under 25 have had 10+ WAR careers, whole only four from the 25+ age group have done so (one of whom was a veteran of the Japanese league). So, it's not impossible for Yaz to have some impact in his career, just not that likely.

[wildcard]

First, of course you never know with certainty how a prospect will turn out. There have been guys who were starting in AA at 24 who turned out well, but they're pretty rare. Just to give an example, in 2006 221 players debuted in the majors. 126 were under age 25, while 95 were 25 or older. Of those, 32 players who were under 25 have had 10+ WAR careers, whole only four from the 25+ age group have done so (one of whom was a veteran of the Japanese league). So, it's not impossible for Yaz to have some impact in his career, just not that likely.

I've seen that analysis before but when Pearce has a very good season at 31 years old and Joseph plays more game than any other catcher on the O's the year they are Division Champs it makes me give guys like Yaz any chance they earn.

[Frobby]

I've seen that analysis before but when Pearce has a very good season at 31 years old and Joseph plays more game than any other catcher on the O's the year they are Division Champs it makes me give guys like Yaz any chance they earn.

Nobody said heshoukdnt get a chance.

[weams]

Nobody said heshoukdnt get a chance.

I hope he is a Hall of Famer. Or even has a part to be played.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've seen that analysis before but when Pearce has a very good season at 31 years old and Joseph plays more game than any other catcher on the O's the year they are Division Champs it makes me give guys like Yaz any chance they earn.

He will get every chance he earns. All we're saying is that when you're planning you don't count on guys who're 24 years old and just got to AA.

[wildcard]

He will get every chance he earns. All we're saying is that when you're planning you don't count on guys who're 24 years old and just got to AA.

I agree. Mike needs a good 2015 season to put him in the major league plan.

[srock]

Interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

That weekend, Corbin told Yastrzemski that he did not think his grandson, who bats left-handed, had the power to put a ball over the Vanderbilt ballpark?s Green Monster, just outside the window.

Mike heard the conversation and walked off, silently. Then he faced Kevin Gausman ? who would be the first pitcher taken in his draft class the next season ? and lifted a fastball over the wall.

Letters

[21xxxv]

Sure it is. If you're 18 when you're drafted and and you fly though the minors like Manny or Trout or Harper you're a productive major leaguer long before a college graduate. If everything goes right Yastrzemski will be in the majors at 24, more likely 25. He only has a couple years before a typical player starts to decline. It's probably not much of an over-generalization to say that a position player who plays 3-4 years in college is just not as much of a prospect as someone who's in the minors at 18 or 19. To this day, there are only a very small handful of HOFers who weren't established big league regulars by 25. Sam Rice may be the only one, at least if you exclude guys who weren't eligible for MLB service at 25 (Negro Leaguers, very early 18th century guys). It's just hard to have a long, successful career when you're not even starting until what's mid-career for most players.

He only has a couple years before a typical player starts to decline.

You have to be kidding!

[Can_of_corn]

He only has a couple years before a typical player starts to decline.

You have to be kidding!

When do you think the average player peaks?

[21xxxv]

When do you think the average player peaks?

The issue isn't when I think a player peaks, its that the poster I replied to is saying a player is going to be declining at 27. I say bogus. Numbers simply don't support that. Either as a pitcher or a position player.

[Can_of_corn]

The issue isn't when I think a player peaks, its that the poster I replied to is saying a player is going to be declining at 27. I say bogus. Numbers simply don't support that. Either as a pitcher or a position player.

Depends on what set of data you look at and if you are looking at elite or regular players. You can make a case for a peak of 27 for non-elite players.