Rule Five Draft Targets

[wildcard]

In my comment above, I was talking about how I'd feel if Rodriguez turned out to be a good starting pitcher. I was against the trade when it was made, but I would not (and did not) have called it a "disaster." But applying a 20/20 hindsight test, if EdRod pans out, then I will consider it to have turned out to be a disaster.

Why did I not like the trade at the time? First, because I knew we'd only have Miller for two months. Second, because I didn't regard our bullpen as being a significant weakness that needed to be addressed. Third, because I had a higher opinion of EdRod than some people.

We've been fortunate the last couple of years to have Tillman and Gonzalez at pre-arbitration prices and Chen and Norris very cheap. In a year, Chen and Norris will be gone or far more expensive, while Tillman and Gonzalez will cost $10-15 mm more in 2016 (combined) than they cost in 2014. If EdRod is in Boston's rotation for the major league minimum by then, and doing well, we're going to be sorry we made the trade. If EdRod doesn't make it, then I guess I will feel better, but I wasn't crazy about the deal when it happened. And by the way, just as there was a risk that EdRod wouldn't pan out, it wasn't a foregone conclusion that Miller would dominate down the stretch and in the playoffs (though I expected him to do well).

So you don't value the O's being Division Champs? The Tigers were the closest team to the O's for the trade for Miller from what I have read. If the Tigers get him and the O's don't then the Tigers may have won the Division Series. What is that worth?

I had no trouble with trading Ed Rod at the time of the trade. He was not doing well and others had past him in the depth chart. After the trade he did very well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[Frobby]

Some folks were haunted by John Maine. For a bit.

Well, I wasn't particularly bothered by that trade, but let's look at how it worked out. Maine went 39-32 for the Mets with a 102 ERA+ at a total cost of about $7 mm, and Kris Benson went 11-12 with a 94 ERA+ for us, at a total cost in excess of $15 mm. So, not that good a trade, in hindsight. And for the record, Eduardo Rodriguez is a more highly regarded prospect than John Maine was, and Benson was under contract for two years with an option for a third, while Miller was a two-month rental.

If the Orioles had an upper-tier budget, or an upper-tier farm system, the EdRod trade would have bothered me less. But we're a mid-tier budget team with a below average farm system, so we have to be judicious in trading away young, cost controlled talent. That doesn't mean you can never do it, but I just didn't like this particular deal, even though Miller was a very good reliever and he gave us everything we could have hoped for and more.

[Frobby]

So you don't value the O's being Division Champs? The Tigers were the closest team to the O's for the trade for Miller from what I have read. If the Tigers get him and the O's don't then the Tigers may have won the Division Series. What is that worth?

I had no trouble with trading Ed Rod at the time of the trade. He was not doing well and others had past him in the depth chart. After the trade he did very well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I'm not applying hindsight. You can look at what I said the day of the trade, and it is no different from what I am saying now. However, you are applying hindsight by taking into account that we beat the Tigers in the ALDS.

For the record, I don't feel significantly better about our season because we won the ALDS series. Winning the AL East was a big deal, and that would have happened with or without Miller. Going to the World Series would have been a pretty big deal, but that didn't happen despite Miller's good performance. I'd rather win an ALDS series than lose one, but of all the various rungs of progressing in the playoffs, it's undoubtedly the least significant. The difference between winning or losing the wild card game is more important to me than the difference between winning and losing the ALDS.* The difference between getting a wild card spot and winning the division title is more important to me than the difference between winning and losing the ALDS.

* Unless the ALDS opponent is the Yankees or the Red Sox.

[weams]

AA 7 6 3.83 20 19 1 0 0 0 110.1 101 51 47 11 37 120 6 0 0 1.25 8.24 0.90 3.02 9.79

AA 15 6 3.22 24 23 3 2 0 0 148.0 143 59 53 11 3 27 0 72 .253 1.15 1.43

AA 10 4 2.68 27 27 0 0 0 0 141.0 112 53 42 10 7 71 0 166 .217 1.30 0.78

AA 12 4 3.58 26 25 2 1 0 0 145.2 141 69 58 9 8 38 0 125 .255 1.23 1.11

AA 6 8 3.60 22 22 0 1 0 0 120.0 120 54 48 6 37 1 108 2 5 6 509 1.308 9.0 0.4 2.8 8.1 2.92

pitchers

Anyone know any of these names.

[stef]

Any chance Zach Borenstein would still be around by the time we pick? He's intriguing. Think he could turn out to be a lefty Steve Pearce type.

Hey! Don't you know this is a thread about the ERod trade?

[Rene88]

BA's notable rule 5 Eligible players:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/notable-players-available-rule-5-draft/

I think they are wrong about Givens.

Thanks for posting, good write-up.

I would like to hear what Weams and Wildcard think about a potential position of interest (versus specific player) we could draft and perhaps make it through the year with him on the roster.

Also-Weams-do you know if the Orioles selected anyone in the Rule 5 Version of the AAA draft last year? Do we typically? Seems like a good idea, just wasn't sure how much it was utilized. Thank you for reading sir.

[clapdiddy]

I would think DD would target an arm for the bullpen more than anything else.

[osfan83]

Well, I wasn't particularly bothered by that trade, but let's look at how it worked out. Maine went 39-32 for the Mets with a 102 ERA+ at a total cost of about $7 mm, and Kris Benson went 11-12 with a 94 ERA+ for us, at a total cost in excess of $15 mm. So, not that good a trade, in hindsight. And for the record, Eduardo Rodriguez is a more highly regarded prospect than John Maine was, and Benson was under contract for two years with an option for a third, while Miller was a two-month rental.

If the Orioles had an upper-tier budget, or an upper-tier farm system, the EdRod trade would have bothered me less. But we're a mid-tier budget team with a below average farm system, so we have to be judicious in trading away young, cost controlled talent. That doesn't mean you can never do it, but I just didn't like this particular deal, even though Miller was a very good reliever and he gave us everything we could have hoped for and more.

Orioles reasonable potential after the Benson deal......maybe .500

Orioles reasonable potential after the Miller Deal.......WS Champs

[fearthenoodle]

Also-Weams-do you know if the Orioles selected anyone in the Rule 5 Version of the AAA draft last year? Do we typically? Seems like a good idea, just wasn't sure how much it was utilized. Thank you for reading sir.

We selected Julio Borbon in the AAA phase last year.

[weams]

Back to the topic of the thread. I'd be very tempted to take the catcher Cruz from the Astros. You take him. If Wieters is ready by the start of the season or even by the end of April, you could carry this kid as an all catch/no hit guy. Heck, we did it with Taylor Teagarden. You can catch Wieters is usual 140 games. Cruz sounds like an elite defensive catcher whose bat might come around.

I'd be all for that. Plus, you could trade for him and then send down. At the point you need a real catcher.

[weams]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/sorting-40-man-roster-additions-key-attributes/

For the legion of players who aren’t on the mainstream prospect radar, however, their potential value may be more difficult to discern or place in context. So let’s dig into the 2014 statistical record to find the areas where the batch of recent 40-man roster additions excel. This will help illustrate player strengths and highlight the attributes that appealed to their organizations.

[SteveO]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/sorting-40-man-roster-additions-key-attributes/

Excellent article thanks for sharing. Pretty insightful.

[weams]

Excellent article thanks for sharing. Pretty insightful.

Thanks I think everyone should read it.