Jump to content

Fangraphs: TB Drops the Face of Framing


Recommended Posts

More of a piece on the market worth of framing.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Molina?s three-year average has been about +25 runs by framing. There?s no reason to think that skill?s due to collapse. Molina?s being paid to be worth about four runs better than replacement. If you take Molina?s 0 WAR projection, and if you assume +25 framing runs, and then if you consider that no one took Molina, that means the league doesn?t think he?s worth even 16% of his framing value. If you instead put Molina at -0.5 WAR for next season, and then follow the same steps, that means the league doesn?t think he?s worth 34% of his framing value. Teams passed Molina completely over, at his modest salary.
And there?s the matter of replacement level. What is a replacement-level catcher? How good are they at receiving? Consensus is that basically every organization has its catch-and-throw guys who aren?t able to hit much. The Padres added Rene Rivera for free, and he was always considered a defensive specialist. Chris Stewart has floated around, easily acquirable. The Orioles plugged in Caleb Joseph this past year after Matt Wieters went down. The Mariners dug deep to find Jesus Sucre. Let?s say that each organization has one or two or three alleged defensive specialists. Those guys won?t be able to hit well, but the perception will be that they could come right up and start stealing strikes, so if you take someone like Jose Molina, maybe he?s not worth 25 runs more than a theoretical defensive replacement. Maybe the gap is half of that. Maybe it?s less? So, if teams wanted a framer, they could conceivably stay internal.

If in this day and age the market is acting like Framing doesn't have the value it is purported to have, odds are good it doesn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If anything I thought the the Rays paid too much for Molina at the time based solely on his pitch framing. The guy is 39, out of shape and literally had no other skills other than pitch framing. even his other defensive skills were questionable. He was a disaster waiting to happen (and did), yet some very smart people still gave him a 2 year 4.5 mil contract. The guy just finished with a negative 2 WAR in less than 40% of the teams innings. Even if you're framing runs at a 25 run rate you're gonna be running a negative with what Molina just did.

1. Jose Molina was quite unique, if not unparalleled, in his ability to throw out such a high rates of efficiency in pitch framing. The article seems to be leading you to to think that other Jose Molina's are just out there to exploit this efficiency. They are not imo.

2. Also, "averaged 25 runs over the last 3 years" is misleading imo. He had one abnormally high year which may lead that count/rate to looking abnormally high in that 3 year period. If you were to look at his average "rate" (not count) I'm pretty sure it is below 25 runs for his career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • I'll be surprised if it's not that trio with either Kremer or Gibson as the 4th starter if the Orioles need one during the playoffs. It's terrible Means was gone for nearly 1.5 years, but the plus side is his arm should be fresh.
    • If the Orioles can't get a good return and Norby doesn't win a job next spring, the odds may go up that he takes over in left in 2025 if the Orioles aren't going to pay both Hays and Mullins, or maybe neither.
    • 4 Ks and missed 6 bats. I missed the game tonight and it looks like he pitched well and he is certainly 3rd in the pecking order right now (which speaks to the staff more than anything) but I don’t have confidence in him vs top offenses if he can’t miss bats and strike guys out.
    • I think Kremer will be in the pen for the playoffs.   I think he can be a weapon out of the bullpen for us this year. Next year I imagine he will pitch in the rotation and continue to improve.  I see this guy pitching in MLB for a long time.  He has the drive and desire to be great.  He improves and adapts as he goes along.     I think they need to try and add and impact starter in the off-seasons and push competition.  I’d like to see two impact relief arms as well.     I’m not in the “the sky is falling” camp right now, but the last few weeks have shown the importance of high quality depth.  You can’t have too much talent. 
    • I bought tickets from the Birdland members presale. My wife and I have a 13-game plan. When it said you could only buy one set of tickets per series, I assumed that meant one pair for the Wild Card Series, one for the ALDS, and one for the ALCS. But I'm seeing people online say that they bought tickets for two games in the ALDS and one for the ALCS. I didn't realize that I could distribute my three games any way I wanted. Now I'm annoyed that I wasted tickets on two series that might not happen at all.
    • The Orioles have one more loss at home than on the road. So I would say about the same. The Rays on the other hand are .663 at home (53-27) vs. .553 on the road (42-34). The Orioles have Bradish and GRod going against the Nationals, at home, after a day off. They should win those games. If they win tomorrow, too, the deed would be nearly done by Wed. Winning tomorrow is not essential, they would be still in good shape with a loss. But it would help to avoid going deep into the week to resolve this.
  • Popular Contributors

  • Create New...