Complete Change in My Mindset on Big Ticket Free Agency - PED Related

[kidrock]

Is anyone else feeling that big ticket free agents are no longer worth the price (on the whole)?

It seems like most players are becoming free agents around the age of 29-32. At that point, can they even produce at a high level for 5 more years without the use of PEDs?

A few examples:

Stanton - Assuming he opts out of his contract at the age of 30, are you confident that, even if he is coming off five 40 homer seasons, that he will be worth a new contract of 250- 300+ mil at that age? He is a big guy who has already been hurt a few times (i know the ball to the face wasnt his body failing, just bad luck). Look at Arod, that guy was arguably worth his contract, but when he opted out and got a new contract, he couldnt even play a full season.

Lester - the guy is 30 and coming off seasons with the following FIP: 3.83, 4.11, 3.59, 2.80. He already has 1600 innings on his arm plus playoff innings. Really good pitcher for sure, but is the guy worth 150+ mil over the next 6 seasons.

Pablo Sandoval - The guy is a 250 pound 28 year old who has always has weight trouble. Its not like it gets easier to control you weight into you 30's. His OPS has decreased for 4 seasons (909, 789, 758,739). His on base has decreased as well (obviously influencing the OPS). I would have a hard time giving that guy 90 million.

Pujols - This guys OPS was declining for 3 seasons before he signed his deal (1.114, 1.101, 1.011, .906). Granted, those were great seasons. At the age of 31, the angels decide to give him a 10 year deal and sure enough, his OPS has continued to fall almost each year (.859, .767, .790 - a slight uptick).

I feel like free agency has just become a contest of who gives the dumbest contract and it ends up hurting teams who give out these contract. I look in the next few years for the O's to gain an advantage here because they are not locking themselves into these contracts. The smart thing to do is find low-medium priced value free agents and lock them up to short term deals (like Cruz).

I know I was all over the place here and cherry picked my examples, but I just wanted to see what you guys thought because there are a ton of very knowledgable people on here.

[MurphDogg]

Yes, I posted this in another thread -

The end of the steroid era has done more to promote parity in baseball than any attempts by the owners to rein in salary. No longer are most players able to maintain peak level performance into their mid 30's, when they are eligible for free agency and available to the highest bidder. Now most players don't hit free agency until they are on the downside of their careers and thus the impact of money is less pronounced.

[birrman54]

This also makes the Cuban free agents even more intriguing since they're basically the only source of pseudo-professional baseball players under 25.

[Frobby]

I've always been pretty skeptical of big free agent deals. More fail than succeed. However, I do think the PED crackdown makes those deals riskier than ever, as it makes it harder for players to beat Father Time.

[Dipper9]

I've always been pretty skeptical of big free agent deals. More fail than succeed. However, I do think the PED crackdown makes those deals riskier than ever, as it makes it harder for players to beat Father Time.

My thoughts exactly. I was never big on signing Free Agents on the downside of their careers for HUGE money deals. That said, I would try to lock up the talented guys before they hit free agency, like we did with Jones.

[Aristotelian]

Good post. Add Fielder to the list and I think Cabrera will end up there. No way does he have 10 production e years. And of.course A Rod.

[wildcard]

So what does this say about Nick and Nelson?

[kidrock]

Does anyone know the post steroid era age numbers about a players peak, I thought it used to be 28-32. Even if those numbers are roughly correct, I still don't see the benefit of giving someone who is over 30 a deal over 4-5 years.

I still remember when I was a teen, I would track every free agent and hoping they would come to the O's. Now I don't really care much about free agency. Sad.

[Can_of_corn]

Does anyone know the post steroid era age numbers about a players peak, I thought it used to be 28-32. Even if those numbers are roughly correct, I still don't see the benefit of giving someone who is over 30 a deal over 4-5 years.

I still remember when I was a teen, I would track every free agent and hoping they would come to the O's. Now I don't really care much about free agency. Sad.

Should be around a hundred years of info about non-steroid peaks.

[Can_of_corn]

Good post. Add Fielder to the list and I think Cabrera will end up there. No way does he have 10 production e years. And of.course A Rod.

He has already started breaking down.

[weams]

Is anyone else feeling that big ticket free agents are no longer worth the price (on the whole)?

It seems like most players are becoming free agents around the age of 29-32. At that point, can they even produce at a high level for 5 more years without the use of PEDs?

A few examples:

Stanton - Assuming he opts out of his contract at the age of 30, are you confident that, even if he is coming off five 40 homer seasons, that he will be worth a new contract of 250- 300+ mil at that age? He is a big guy who has already been hurt a few times (i know the ball to the face wasnt his body failing, just bad luck). Look at Arod, that guy was arguably worth his contract, but when he opted out and got a new contract, he couldnt even play a full season.

Lester - the guy is 30 and coming off seasons with the following FIP: 3.83, 4.11, 3.59, 2.80. He already has 1600 innings on his arm plus playoff innings. Really good pitcher for sure, but is the guy worth 150+ mil over the next 6 seasons.

Pablo Sandoval - The guy is a 250 pound 28 year old who has always has weight trouble. Its not like it gets easier to control you weight into you 30's. His OPS has decreased for 4 seasons (909, 789, 758,739). His on base has decreased as well (obviously influencing the OPS). I would have a hard time giving that guy 90 million.

Pujols - This guys OPS was declining for 3 seasons before he signed his deal (1.114, 1.101, 1.011, .906). Granted, those were great seasons. At the age of 31, the angels decide to give him a 10 year deal and sure enough, his OPS has continued to fall almost each year (.859, .767, .790 - a slight uptick).

I feel like free agency has just become a contest of who gives the dumbest contract and it ends up hurting teams who give out these contract. I look in the next few years for the O's to gain an advantage here because they are not locking themselves into these contracts. The smart thing to do is find low-medium priced value free agents and lock them up to short term deals (like Cruz).

I know I was all over the place here and cherry picked my examples, but I just wanted to see what you guys thought because there are a ton of very knowledgable people on here.

Boston is not as worried about this as Ortiz continues to use and does not get caught anymore. So they are pretty confident.

[El Gordo]

What is the value of making the playoffs or the WS, v the cost of overpaying on the back end of a FA contract? Also not all players follow the average performance aging curve. Elite players often peak later and plateau longer even without PEDs. See Hank Aaron, Willy Mays, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Albert Pujols etc.

[Can_of_corn]

What is the value of making the playoffs or the WS, v the cost of overpaying on the back end of a FA contract? Also not all players follow the average performance aging curve. Elite players often peak later and plateau longer even without PEDs. See Hank Aaron, Willy Mays, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Albert Pujols etc.

There are doubts about some of those names you listed.

[crissfan172]

Completely agree with the OP, but doesn't that make it even more interesting that FA prices continue to go up significantly?

At least we're seeing an increase in big money extensions for young stars.

[weams]

Completely agree with the OP, but doesn't that make it even more interesting that FA prices continue to go up significantly?

At least we're seeing an increase in big money extensions for young stars.

And I do think that teams wll continue to reach out for them. Until they start getting burned there.