Will DD Make Any Moves Before The Winter Meetings in San Diego December 7th-11th?

[weams]

That is also in my OP. Don't scouts go to spring training games? Of course they do. Someone questioned how a scout would see Wieters prior to the start of the season. I said working out and in exhibition spring training games. This isn't rocket science. The winter meetings start on the 7th - this Sunday. Should be an interesting week or two coming up for the Orioles.

That someone is me. Explain it. How does a scout see Wieters is all I ask. In order to trade him before the season starts. You know, because if they trade later, they can't make a qualifying offer. Will Wieters catch in spring training? Has he picked up a ball yet? Do you think that Wieters would let someone give him a physical and see him work out in order to be traded and put no money in his pocket? You think his agent would allow that? His name is Scott Boras. taylor Teagarden and John Baker are the only catchers to have had Tommy John who returned from it to the majors. Small sample size, I know. You can not trade Matt Wieters. He has no value until you see all the things I am saying.

[weams]

Wieters and Hardy will be traded for Kemp + Cash.

Just because we may be talking Kemp does not mean that Wieters or Hardy would even be considered. Which they would not.

[weams]

Now riddle me this. Which ML catchers have had it and not returned?

Most pitchers have it and return. It should be much easier for a catcher who doesn't have to throw the ball nearly as much, or throwing sliders, curveballs, and changeups. I would be shocked if Wieters isn't ready defensively fairly early in the season. I'd be surprised if he wasn't 100% when he does return. Dylan Bundy was throwing 90-93 one year after the surgery, down 3-4 mph from when he was 100%. I see no reason to expect anything less from Wieters.

I used to have that list, I will look for it again. It is not extensive. I think it was 13 names total.

[weams]

Now riddle me this. Which ML catchers have had it and not returned?

Most pitchers have it and return. It should be much easier for a catcher who doesn't have to throw the ball nearly as much, or throwing sliders, curveballs, and changeups. I would be shocked if Wieters isn't ready defensively fairly early in the season. I'd be surprised if he wasn't 100% when he does return. Dylan Bundy was throwing 90-93 one year after the surgery, down 3-4 mph from when he was 100%. I see no reason to expect anything less from Wieters.

I think Wieters will catch some by May. He'll probably be one of the ones who can stay a catcher. I have faith inhim.

[weams]

Now riddle me this. Which ML catchers have had it and not returned?

Most pitchers have it and return. It should be much easier for a catcher who doesn't have to throw the ball nearly as much, or throwing sliders, curveballs, and changeups. I would be shocked if Wieters isn't ready defensively fairly early in the season. I'd be surprised if he wasn't 100% when he does return. Dylan Bundy was throwing 90-93 one year after the surgery, down 3-4 mph from when he was 100%. I see no reason to expect anything less from Wieters.

http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2014/06/17/matt-wieters-tommy-john-surgery-baltimore-orioles

Steve Christmas, 1986

A 28-year-old backup backstop who played just 24 major league games from 1983-1986, Christmas is the earliest instance in the database of a catcher having TJ, and just the second position player after Paul Molitor (1984), though there may have been others whose surgeries slipped through the cracks in the pre-internet era. His career appears to have his career ended by the surgery, as he didn't play at any level after 1986.

Todd Hundley, 1997

The son of former major league catcher Randy Hundley (1964-1977) but no relation to the aformentioned Nick Hundley, Todd is the one with the caveat. After earning All-Star honors for the Mets in both 1996 and 1997 while bopping a combined 71 homers, he underwent the surgery on Sept. 26, 1997. He spent the first half of the 1998 season on the disabled list, a time during which the Mets traded for Mike Piazza. When Hundley returned to the Mets in mid-July, he was forced to the unfamiliar position of leftfield. Much drama — some of it carrying over from the previous season — ensued as he hit .161/.261/.266 in 53 games, struggled to play the outfield and needed a late-season trip to the DL amid further elbow soreness.

The Mets traded him to the Dodgers in December 1998; while hit 24 homers in each of his first two seasons in LA, only the latter one was any good, and he battled a variety of injuries for the remainder of his career. Post-surgery, he hit .217/.308/.437 (93 OPS+) with 81 homers in 449 games spread over six seasons, and his defense behind the plate — never his strong suit — declined as well. Bat-wise, his post-TJ performance may have been his natural level, given that in 2007, the Mitchell Report revealed that he had purchased Deca-Durabolin and testosterone prior to his 40-homer 1996 season, and had put up just an 83 OPS+ in parts of six major league seasons to that point.

J.R. House, 2002

A fifth-round pick by the Pirates in 1999, House landed in the upper half of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list in 2001 and 2002, but he underwent three surgeries in the latter year, including two for an abdominal hernia, plus TJ in September. He played just 40 minor league games and one major league one in 2003, and after a solid 2004 season at Triple-A, missed all of 2005 due to surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff. He wound up accumulating just 32 games and 63 plate appearances in his major league career.

Ben Davis, 2005

The overall number two pick of the 1995 draft by the Padres, Davis spent parts of seven seasons (1998-2004) in the majors with the Padres, Mariners and White Sox but only once played in more than 80 games. He tore his UCL during a minor league stint with the White Sox in 2005, and underwent the surgery on June 28; while he played parts of five more seasons in the minors — even converting to the mound in 2008 — he never returned to the majors.

Taylor Teagarden, 2005

A 2005 third-round draft pick by the Rangers out of the University of Texas, Teagarden underwent TJ in November of that year following his first professional season. He played in just seven games the next season, but climbed onto the BA Top 100 list in 2008 and 2009, spending time with the Rangers in both seasons. His career has since evolved into that of a typical Quad-A player; he's hit .203/.264/.387 with 21 homers in 536 PA while throwing out 32 percent of would-be base thieves for the Rangers (2008-2011), Orioles (2012-2013, as Wieters' backup) and Mets (2014) while spending considerable time in the minors and on the DL for back woes.

Vance Wilson, 2007 and 2008

A career backup, Wilson played in 403 games for the Mets and Tigers from 1999-2006. Limited to just three minor league games in 2007 due to a torn muscle in his forearm, he tore his UCL while rehabbing, and underwent his first TJ surgery in June 2007, at the age of 34. He didn't play again before needing a second surgery a year later, and played in just 59 minor league games thereafter, going 0-for-20 in throwing out base thieves and never returning to the majors.

Chris Coste, 2010

Though he didn't make his major league debut until 2006 at age 33, Coste emerged as a solid backup catcher for the Phillies during their recent run of success; he was part of the 2007 NL East champs and 2008 world champions before being traded to Houston in mid-2009. He underwent TJ in May 2010 while a member of the Nationals' organization, but he was soon released, and didn't play another professional game before officially retiring in 2011.

John Baker, 2010

Baker hit a combined .281/.364/.423 for the Marlins in 2008-2009, though he struggled to control the running game, throwing out just 19 percent of would-be base thieves. After a slow start in 2010, he went on the disabled list due to a flexor strain in May. Following a June consultation with Dr. Andrews, it was believed he wouldn't need TJ, but after two abortive rehabs, an MRI showed more conclusively that he had a UCL tear. He underwent the surgery in September and was limited to just 15 minor league games and 16 major league ones the following year. Currently a backup for the Cubs, he's hit just .205/.281/.235 in 125 major league games since the surgery while nabbing just 15 percent of base thieves.

In all, only Hundley, Teagarden and Baker went on to have significant major league careers post-surgery, and they've hit a combined .212/.294/.395 in 2,445 post-surgical PA at the level with a 24 percent caught-stealing rate. That makes them more backup/fringe material than regulars, let alone stars, though to be fair, the sample size is small. Only once did any of the trio (Hundley, 1999) catch at least 100 games in a season post-surgery.

[weams]

Weams? That's your list of ML catchers who had the surgery and didn't come back. Weak. It's actually pretty laughable. Ben Davis elbow didn't recover so he tried to come back as a pitcher. Really? Most of the other guys were never was guys. Baker couldn't throw runners out before or after the surgery. J.R. House didn't even have TJ surgery. Come on. You're better than that.

As I always say, it's a small sample size.

[weams]

Weams? That's your list of ML catchers who had the surgery and didn't come back. Weak. It's actually pretty laughable. Ben Davis elbow didn't recover so he tried to come back as a pitcher. Really? Most of the other guys were never was guys. Baker couldn't throw runners out before or after the surgery. J.R. House didn't even have TJ surgery. Come on. You're better than that.

You can't make a case for one catcher who actually had a career, since TJ surgery became common, and had his catching career ended because of it.

I also say that I think Matt will come back. I do not think anyone will trade for him until he does.

[Number5]

Weams? That's your list of ML catchers who had the surgery and didn't come back. Weak. It's actually pretty laughable. Ben Davis elbow didn't recover so he tried to come back as a pitcher. Really? Most of the other guys were never was guys. Baker couldn't throw runners out before or after the surgery. J.R. House didn't even have TJ surgery. Come on. You're better than that.

You can't make a case for one catcher who actually had a career, since TJ surgery became common, and had his catching career ended because of it.

I'm not sure what you expect Weams to say. That is the list. That's it.

The point is Wieters is in relatively unknown territory here. It makes sense that GMs would tread very carefully and this, combined with his $7.9 million projected arb salary and the fact that his impending free agency is virtually assured by the fact that Boras is Matt's agent, makes trading Matt a very unlikely possibility.

[El Gordo]

It stands to reason that if most pitchers return from it successfully, a catcher can. Even if Matts velo isn't what it was, throwing out runners isn't the only part of his game, and it requires footwork as much as arm strength. It may take Matt longer to get back fully recovered, than a position player, but I would say the odds are good he'll be pretty much what he was.

[mdbdotcom]

As I always say, it's a small sample size.

Can't we simplify this to say that no catcher with an MLB track record similar to Matt Wieters has ever attempted to recover from TJS before? This is uncharted territory.

I expect MW will make a full recovery, but it's certainly not a sure thing. We shall see.

[weams]

Can't we simplify this to say that no catcher with an MLB track record similar to Matt Wieters has ever attempted to recover from TJS before? This is uncharted territory.

I expect MW will make a full recovery, but it's certainly not a sure thing. We shall see.

Roch Kubatko today.

On a completely separate topic, catcher Matt Wieters has started to do some light throwing as he progresses from ligament-reconstructive surgery on his right elbow.

Dr. James Andrews examined Wieters' elbow on Nov. 12 and told him that everything looked good.

[weams]

Can't we simplify this to say that no catcher with an MLB track record similar to Matt Wieters has ever attempted to recover from TJS before? This is uncharted territory.

I expect MW will make a full recovery, but it's certainly not a sure thing. We shall see.

I think this is a good way to phrase it. No one will trade for him because of it.

[waroriole]

I think this is a good way to phrase it. No one will trade for him because of it.

I agree that nobody is trading for him. Still, more likely that he is traded than Hardy, especially for Kemp.

[mdbdotcom]

I think this is a good way to phrase it. No one will trade for him because of it.

I wonder if the TJS could affect his hitting. I don't see why it should, but he's the first real hitter to test this.

[DrungoHazewood]

Can't we simplify this to say that no catcher with an MLB track record similar to Matt Wieters has ever attempted to recover from TJS before? This is uncharted territory.

I expect MW will make a full recovery, but it's certainly not a sure thing. We shall see.

I think this is a good way to phrase it. No one will trade for him because of it.

Why would a catcher recovering from Tommy John be any more risky than the thousands of pitchers who've done it?