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Would either of Wei-Yin Chen or Bud Norris receive a QO?


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Extend a QO?  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. Extend a QO?

    • The O's should/will extend a QO to both
      18
    • Just Chen
      3
    • Just Norris
      3
    • The O's should/will extend a QO to neither
      5


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There has been a fair amount of discussion regarding whether the O's would be able to trade one of their six presumable starters going into 2015. I like us rolling with the six guys we have as someone is bound to be injured at some point. One question I haven't heard discussed much is what happens with these guys come 2016 (following 2015 season). Chen is on a cheap option for 2015 and Norris is in his last season of Arb. That leaves us with the following heading into 2016:

Chris Tillman

Kevin Gausman

Ubaldo Jimenez

Miguel Gonzalez

Dylan Bundy

Hunter Harvey

I don't think it really makes sense for us to try and extend either Chen or Norris. They will be 30 and 31, respectively, in the 2016 season. Would it make sense for us to QO either of these guys? Obviously, I don't think either of them is worth ~15M for a single season, but I would think there is some small possibility one or both might turn down that 1 year deal in order to sign something long-term.

Edwin Jackson was able to get a 4yr/$52M deal coming off a 99 ERA+ age 28 season (so heading into his age 29 season). There's not a ton of historical evidence regarding the QO system. Jimenez is another guy who was able to get 4/$50M.

Counter-point would be that Earvin Santana had to wait a long time because of the draft pick compensation, so I could definitely see the pick scaring some teams off.

So the question is, if both of these guys repeat their 2014 campaigns (numbers below), which do you think would be worthy** of extending a QO to?

Chen - 16-6, 3.54 ERA, 185.2 IP, 108 ERA+, 3.89 FIP, 1.228 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

Norris - 15-8, 3.65 ERA, 165.1 IP, 105 ERA+, 4.22 FIP, 1.216 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9

**Again, I don't think either is worth the QO from a performance/% resources perspective, that being said, on a one-year deal it's not the worst thing in the world (and again, as Weams likes to tell me, not a single one has ever been accepted). My question is moreso whether there would be enough interest from other teams that we could end up offering it/it being declined/receive a pick.

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I don't see the harm in extending a QO to both of them in 2016 (assuming they are both around). Just about all of the time, FAs refuse QOs and thus the Os could get one or more compensatory draft picks if either of them signs with a different team. The only way that Os management doesn't extend a QO is if a long-term contract is iminent.

Supposedly, Os management didn't extend a QO for Markakis because it looked as though a long term deal was on the verge of being done. Unfortunately, that has not happened. If Markakis winds up signing with a different team, then the Os have to go without a draft pick for the signing.

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I think some people will experience sticker shock once they start seeing the projected contract Chen would get in free agency.

His 2016 contract may end up being 150% higher than this year's. We've been very fortunate that we've been able to keep the cost of our rotation relatively low.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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