Roch: Rey Navarro is Going to Fight for a Job

[Frobby]

The Orioles started Jonathan Schoop almost every day on a division-winning team despite a .244 OBP. They had Jemile Weeks and Steve Lombardozzi and eventually Kelly Johnson and several other guys capable of playing second, and yet Schoop never lost his job. And never seemed in danger of losing his job. I think the only way Schoop loses his job in 2015 is if he regresses and really hits exceptionally poorly from spring through maybe May or June. Navarro is there as a backup and maybe a little push to keep Schoop motivated. He's not a serious option as an opening day starter unless things go very, very badly for Schoop in Florida.

While I do not necessarily disagree with your conclusion, I don't assume that because the O's were willing to carry Schoop's .244 OBP in his rookie season, they'd be willing to do it two years in a row. You have to give a young player some time to learn and grow -- but not an infinite amount of time. The fact that Flaherty has posted a sub-.300 OBP three years in a row makes it easier to be patient with Schoop.

[DrungoHazewood]

"I had a co-worker that kept up with all baseball stats" is one of my favorite things ever posted on this board. If only all of us could have such wise co-workers, the guardians of the secrets of the baseball universe.

I've totally lost touch with both GWRBI and Total Average. Not to mention the UZR of guys in the Taiwan league. Sucks for the lady in the office next door to me.

[DrungoHazewood]

While I do not necessarily disagree with your conclusion, I don't assume that because the O's were willing to carry Schoop's .244 OBP in his rookie season, they'd be willing to do it two years in a row. You have to give a young player some time to learn and grow -- but not an infinite amount of time. The fact that Flaherty has posted a sub-.300 OBP three years in a row makes it easier to be patient with Schoop.

I think that if you're willing to live with a .244 OBP you're not going to send the guy to AAA if he has a .275 this year. Schoop will keep the job unless he regresses, and its going to be pretty hard to have an OBP below .244.

[Can_of_corn]

I think it's good that Schoop won't just be handed a job in 2015. Bring in a lot of competition and make him win the job, as he did last year. As I've written elsewhere, I think Schoop's development will have a lot of impact on how the Orioles' offense will do the next few years. There's no question the kid has power, enough to be a 20-25 HR guy. But a .244 OBP is not even close to acceptable. He simply must improve that, by a lot, if he wants to keep a job as a regular. I believe he is capable of doing that, but he has to prove it, and if he is unable to do it, the O's need viable alternatives.

I think Schoop is totally going to be handed the job.

[Frobby]

I think that if you're willing to live with a .244 OBP you're not going to send the guy to AAA if he has a .275 this year. Schoop will keep the job unless he regresses, and its going to be pretty hard to have an OBP below .244.

I certainly hope so! And I think if Schoop gets to .275 this year, that may be good enough for now because his SLG is likely to take a pretty good jump in 2015, IMO. He had a .103 ISO in the first half of the season, .208 in the second half. I'd certainly bet on .175 or higher in 2015. A line like .235/.275/.410 is probably in the ballpark of what I expect from Schoop in 2015.

[Can_of_corn]

I certainly hope so! And I think if Schoop gets to .275 this year, that may be good enough for now because his SLG is likely to take a pretty good jump in 2015, IMO. He had a .103 ISO in the first half of the season, .208 in the second half. I'd certainly bet on .175 or higher in 2015. A line like .235/.275/.410 is probably in the ballpark of what I expect from Schoop in 2015.

He made a ton of poor contact in the first half.

[DrungoHazewood]

I certainly hope so! And I think if Schoop gets to .275 this year, that may be good enough for now because his SLG is likely to take a pretty good jump in 2015, IMO. He had a .103 ISO in the first half of the season, .208 in the second half. I'd certainly bet on .175 or higher in 2015. A line like .235/.275/.410 is probably in the ballpark of what I expect from Schoop in 2015.

I'm not going to say this is what's going to happen, because he's going to have to make some pretty big adjustments to get there and most stars don't start out with a .244 OBP, but if everything goes right he could be Alfonso Soriano with the defensive chops to play a GGish 2B. Yes, I just outlined Schoop's path to Cooperstown.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm not going to say this is what's going to happen, because he's going to have to make some pretty big adjustments to get there and most stars don't start out with a .244 OBP, but if everything goes right he could be Alfonso Soriano with the defensive chops to play a GGish 2B. Yes, I just outlined Schoop's path to Cooperstown.

Yep, 16 years or so of that could get a guy in.