Calling it now Orioles will go into Panic mode

[Oriole1940]

But if he gets a contending over the hump and gets them a World Series, no one will care if they have to overpay him in year 3 and 4.

This is so right. And when you average in the 2014 season, that would be 3 or more seasons of really helping this club, so the 3rd or 4th season on the contract, when taken, on average, is not real important, to have a power hitter of Cruzes ability. When a team is as close to a WS championship as we were in 2014, 2015 must be looked as a lets do what it takes, within reason, to win. And $14.25 M per year is within reason.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is so right. And when you average in the 2014 season, that would be 3 or more seasons of really helping this club, so the 3rd or 4th season on the contract, when taken, on average, is not real important, to have a power hitter of Cruzes ability. When a team is as close to a WS championship as we were in 2014, 2015 must be looked as a lets do what it takes, within reason, to win. And $14.25 M per year is within reason.

But how is Cruz going to get the Orioles over the hump when he almost certainly won't ever play that well again? Not resigning Cruz means the O's now have about four wins to make up. But resigning Cruz very probably would mean they'd have ~2 wins to make up from his decline, and more as they go forward in time. And they'd have to make up those wins without the benefit of his hefty salary.

[atomic]

I think he panicked when he signed Ubaldo

Yeah it seemed like a panic move.

[weams]

This. Dan likely knew he was gone when he held his ground to only giving him 3 years. He would have been happy to bring him back if Cruz was on the market for a while and then lowered his expectations, but if not they were ready to go a different direction.

Dan wanted the pick also.

[SpinJr]

Definitely not a mistake by Cruz. He will not put up anywhere near the numbers he did last year in Baltimore, but for him, who cares. He has his money based on one stellar season at 34 years old, and he helped us get to the ALCS. I wish him well, but am glad we didn't spend 60 million on a DH who I don't see ever matching his numbers from a year ago.

I also don't consider signing Nick a panic move. The Orioles want him back, and he wants to come back, but Dan will bring him back at the money Dan wants, and if Nick keeps pushing for more, he may well end up playing somewhere other than Baltimore. I like Nick and want him back, but Dan has taken over my Ozzie Newsome confidence. In Dan I trust!

Good point on the Ozzie trust. I feel the same way and it's a BEAUTIFUL feeling.

[BohKnowsBmore]

No, you will go into panic mode. Dan Duquette does not go into panic mode. And it's obvious.

Dan doesn't seem to have the normal range of human emotion. Probably pretty useful as a GM.

[weams]

Just watch Nick will sign in 72 hours.

I believed that Nick would sign right after the offers are tendered myself. Before Cruz decided to go West.

[weams]

Dan doesn't seem to have the normal range of human emotion. Probably pretty useful as a GM.

I think Dan can emote, I think we can't see it.

Here Bird. You'll agree with this.

http://splicetoday.com/sports/dan-duquette-is-the-orioles-middle-man

[BohKnowsBmore]

But if he gets a contending over the hump and gets them a World Series, no one will care if they have to overpay him in year 3 and 4.

While that's true, it's all a weighing of risk vs. reward. Just because something works out doesn't mean it was a prudent or wise decision. Otherwise, every marginal improvement, regardless of cost, could be deemed necessary.

[Loophole]

His contract does not run through age 39 by any definition. He will be 34 on Opening Day of 2015, 37 on Opening Day of the final year of his contract, and 38 by the time that season ends. He'll still be 38 on Opening Day the year after his contract expires, and his "baseball age" that year (i.e., age as of June 30) will be 38.

His birthday is July 1. BBRef says that's their line (not 6/30) so I'm not sure why they don't consider him a year older. He's right on the edge anyway.

[Tony-OH]

There is zero chance of that happening. For the record, however, I would not be shocked if Nick at ages 31-34 turns out to be more valuable than Nelson at ages 34-37.

Interesting. This made me think and now that you made me do that, I had to do some quick research.

Using BB-Refs comps for players through the same ages, I came up with this:

Markakis' top three comps are Greg Jeffries, Al Oliver and Gary Matthews while Cruz's top three are Gus Zernial, Josh Willingham, Phil Nevin. BTW, I'm not sure I agree with these comps but I'll use them anyways.

Using WAR as the metric, here's what Marakakis comps did between 31-34:

Jeffries: -1.2 WAR, done really by the age of 30 as an everyday player and out of baseball after 32

Oliver: 11.6 WAR, and was still a pretty good hitter (BTW, Oliver was a better hitter than Marakais overall)

Matthews: 5.9 WAR mostly hurt by his significant negative defensive WAR. Matthews would have been an excellent DH in the AL

Here are Cruz's comps between 34-37:

Zernial: -0.7 WAR (I'll admit, I never heard of this guy) he was out of baseball after his 36 year old season and done as an everyday guy after 34.

Willingham: 1.2 WAR thru 35 (Willingham is still playing but looks done as an everyday guy)

Nevin: -1.5 WAR done after his age 35 year

Just for kicks and giggles I'll add in Jeremy Burnitz who is 6th on the list but to me may be the closest straight up player to Nelson Cruz.

Burnitz: 1.9 WAR but he did have a 39 homer season in Colorado and was hurt by his negative dWAR.

So looking it over, honestly, Cruz's comps did not do very good between 34-37. Saying that, none of them had the year Cruz had at 33.

So in conclusion, it's reasonable to think that Markakis will be more valuable between 31-34 then Cruz at 34-37 if comps are to be taken into consideration. I will say doing this exercise makes me feel better about Cruz moving on despite the fact that I feel the Orioles will need to fill that power in their lineup somehow.

[Frobby]

His birthday is July 1. BBRef says that's their line (not 6/30) so I'm not sure why they don't consider him a year older. He's right on the edge anyway.

Either way it doesn't change the fact that Cruz will be 38 on the day his contract expires, and for the first half of the following season. However, so far as I know, July is the first day of the "younger" age, not the last day of the "older" age, according to baseball convention. That's the way BB-ref universally applies it to everyone born on July 1 (see list here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/birthdays.cgi?month=7&day=1). The convention is totally arbitrary, but no matter how you look at it, Cruz will never be 39 while fulfilling this contract.

[Frobby]

So in conclusion, it's reasonable to think that Markakis will be more valuable between 31-34 then Cruz at 34-37 if comps are to be taken into consideration. I will say doing this exercise makes me feel better about Cruz moving on despite the fact that I feel the Orioles will need to fill that power in their lineup somehow.

Right. And I'm not saying that it will happen that way, just that it's very reasonable to think that it could. In 2014, David Ortiz was the only hitter 37 or older who accumulated more than 0.4 fWAR (he was 38 this year and was worth 2.4 fWAR). He was worth 2.4, 3.9, 2.8 and 3.9 at ages 34-37. There are a few other active players who are 38 or older now who had pretty good total production from 34-37:

Beltran - 4.3, 3.2, 1.9, -0.5 (38 in 2014)

Hunter - 3.4, 2.3, 5.2, 2.5 (38 in 2014)

Jeter - 3.7, 6.8, 2.6, 1.9 (40 in 2014)

Konerko - 3.6, 2.6, 2.0, -1.8 (38 in 2014)

Soriano - 2.8, 1.0, 3.7, 3.0 (38 in 2014)

Ibanez - 3.5, 0.8, 2.9, 3.5 (42 in 2014)

So, it is not impossible to have value at age 34-37 that might justify $57 mm (~9-10 WAR at current prices), but it's pretty rare.

[weams]

Duquette rightfully suspects that he will not get last year's Nelson Cruz over the next four seasons. First, it was a career year for Cruz and not likely to be repeated. Second, Cruz is reaching the age were decline is more likely than maintaining the status quo or improving.

So, Dan isn't looking to sign the last Nelson Cruz, he's looking to sign the next Nelson Cruz. Personnally, I'd rather sign Torrie Hunter to a one-year deal in the $8-10 mil range than sign Cruz to a four-year deal at $14.25 per year.

And, just because Jiminez didn't do well doesn't mean it was a panic move at the time. It may have been a poor decision or evaluation, but it was based on a recognized need that the team was thin in starting pitching. Luckily, Tillman, Norris, Chen and Gonzalez outperformed pre-season expectations, Gausman was ready when called upon, and the pen was amongst the best in the league. But, it was still reasonable to sign another starting pitcher going into spring training. It was a reaction to a known need, not a panic move based on someone else's action, IMO.

There is something to be learned about opportunity cost. I think Dan grasps the concept.

[Il BuonO]

Dan was always more likely to re-sign Markakis than Cruz. It's been clear from the first day of the offseason.

What is an overpay in your opinion?

Jimenez last year.