Is this a fair deal for the O's AND Cubs?

[Fairfax Bird]

Let's compare apples to apples. Robinson Cano just got 4 years $30 million from the Yankees.

Isn't Cano further away from FA than Roberts? Aren't they buying out some of his arbitration years with a pretty fair deal. I think Roberts would get more on the open market, but again he is two years from getting there.

I'd prefer to trade him anyway given a decent return.

[Roll Tide]

I urge you to look away from batting average and see the more valuable numbers in the other columns. Being a 300 hitter is virtually meaningless in and of itself. Murton and Pie aren't in the same ballpark. Murton is a borderline starter in the ML at LF/RF if he hits his peak. Pie has the chance to be an All Start in CF if he hits his peak.

Sorry my friend ...I think Gallagher could hit .300-.310 w/ 20+ Hr & 80 RBI's... I dont think Pie will hit enough to be a All Star CF candidate. He's more likely to be a Lesser Patterson type. Not as much power, A lot of K's, lower than .270 avg. IMO the Orioles have their CF. All Murton needs is a everyday chance to be in the lineup.

[redwhitenblue]

Let's compare apples to apples. Robinson Cano just got 4 years $30 million from the Yankees.

To cover arb years

[FR500]

Let's compare apples to apples. Robinson Cano just got 4 years $30 million from the Yankees.

Thanks BB. The voice of reason. Last plea to AM: Keep BRob in Baltimore!

[clapdiddy]

To cover arb years

Exactly....a lot different than being on the open market.

[Bloopandablast]

I agree with this but it just wont happen- the FO wants a veteran innings eater-if we don't trade Roberts to the Cubs I wonder if a Jay Payton Jason Marquis deal would still be possible? Money would likely be an issue but I see Marquis as a better option to most of the remaining Free agents and getting rid of Payton is a must for this team not only because he is no good but more importantly, he is a cancer who would start trouble right away.

So you are offering a mediocre player who is a clubhouse cancer for an innings eater? Even though Marquis will not make anyone forget Cy Young that is an awful trade for the Cubs.

[Bloopandablast]

You know what I find amazing is that the vast majority of Cub fans I know would be thrilled if Cedeno was the Cubs' everyday SS in 2008 (over Theriot), yet most folks here seem to be uninterested in Cedeno, despite their default option being even worse than Theriot.

Agreed. And they think of him only as a second basemen when I think he is better at SS.

[cborgans1]

So you are offering a mediocre player who is a clubhouse cancer for an innings eater? Even though Marquis will not make anyone forget Cy Young that is an awful trade for the Cubs.

An awful trade? That is an overstatement- last season in the NL Marquis had an era closing in on 5, and a Whip that was about 1.4. Against teams such as Seattle, Arizona, Atlanta, and the NYM he was trashed-almost had an ERA of 7. Payton would most likely be a mediocre player for the Cubs-however, he also offers the ability to play multiple positions and hit left handed pitching. For a winning team, Payton in the club house would have a different effect-he would not be as much as a problem as he would be for the Orioles because he would simply be a bench player for a winning team not one for a last place loosing one. Not to mention the Cubs signed Jon Lieber this off-season and Marquis has a huge salary for being an "Innings eater"-he's owed about 5 million next season not to mention he has another year left from the 3 yr 21 million one he signed in 2006.

[square634]

An awful trade? That is an overstatement- last season in the NL Marquis had an era closing in on 5, and a Whip that was about 1.4. Against teams such as Seattle, Arizona, Atlanta, and the NYM he was trashed-almost had an ERA of 7. Payton would most likely be a mediocre player for the Cubs-however, he also offers the ability to play multiple positions and hit left handed pitching. For a winning team, Payton in the club house would have a different effect-he would not be as much as a problem as he would be for the Orioles because he would simply be a bench player for a winning team not one for a last place loosing one. Not to mention the Cubs signed Jon Lieber this off-season and Marquis has a huge salary for being an "Innings eater"-he's owed about 5 million next season not to mention he has another year left from the 3 yr 21 million one he signed in 2006.

Payton is not mediocre, he is awful. Marquis will probably also be worse than mediocre in the AL, but I think he's a lot closer to mediocre than Payton is.

Payton's OPS+: 74

Marquis' ERA+: 101

Payton is also 6 years older. Marquis has put up an ERA+ higher than 100 for three of the past four years. Payton's OPS+ had been in the high 80s to low 90s the three years before he came to the Orioles.

[skiba7]

Please show me any evidence at all that Murton will produce an 850 OPS

That's a ridiculous question since I obviously couldn't have evidence. I've watched him play, and I'm telling you I could easily see him putting up ismilar numbers if actually got the chance.

I don't think he is a superstar. However, I think he is better now than Murton and likely to continue to be better over the next several years (when normalizing for position). I think you clearly overvalue Murton based on the quoted sentence above.

Where did I ever compare Roberts to Murton alone?

Yes, evaluating Roberts based on his career OPS and throwing out the steroids thing shows you're clearly a non-biased outfielder. This is about the 5th time I've seen you use the steroids thing and career OPS in a post to "analyze" his value. I think you've done more to indict yourself with these statements than anything I could do.

I bring up the steroids and OPS because they are valid points in an argument, and ones that Orioles fans obviously wouldn't mention. If you guys can try to talk up his value by talking about intangibles and his leadoff skills, why can't I bring up things that detract from his value? I don't really care about the steroids thing, and privately, GMs probably don't care much either. However, baseball isn't a private sport. Whether you like to admit it or not, being on the Mitchell Report hurt his value somewhat. How did I indict myself? By bringing up facts? If you want to make counter arguments, that would be more helpful than insulting me just because I said something negative about an Orioles player.

[Bloopandablast]

An awful trade? That is an overstatement- last season in the NL Marquis had an era closing in on 5, and a Whip that was about 1.4. Against teams such as Seattle, Arizona, Atlanta, and the NYM he was trashed-almost had an ERA of 7. Payton would most likely be a mediocre player for the Cubs-however, he also offers the ability to play multiple positions and hit left handed pitching. For a winning team, Payton in the club house would have a different effect-he would not be as much as a problem as he would be for the Orioles because he would simply be a bench player for a winning team not one for a last place loosing one. Not to mention the Cubs signed Jon Lieber this off-season and Marquis has a huge salary for being an "Innings eater"-he's owed about 5 million next season not to mention he has another year left from the 3 yr 21 million one he signed in 2006.

OK so we are arguing about the definition of awful, mediocre etc. You first have his ERA at approaching 5. Well it was 4.6 or about his career ave. If that is approaching 5 will you next argue that Payton hitting 256 was approaching 300?

Then you took 4 teams and explained that his ERA was near 7 against them. How did you choose that group of teams? Were they just the worst he performed against? It's not like you chose AL East teams or anything.

One of the earlier posters put together a list of approx 25 pitchers with similar stats and salary ranges and then challenged O's fans to come up with 4 or 5th outfielders with similar combo of stats and salary as Payton. I have not seen any takers on that.

Why, because they do not exist in high quantity....ergo a starting pitcher with Marquis like stats is vastly more valuable than a 36 year old outfielder like Jay Payton.

[davearm]

Agree. So, you want to project Veal to have the same "epiphany" as Loewen did? BTW, the jury is still out on Loewen.

What epiphany was that?

I haven't seen anything to indicate that Loewen's cleaned up his command issues. Certainly his walk rate doesn't indicate an improvement. Sample size notwithstanding, he was worse than ever in that regard last season.

[skiba7]

Two pages later and still nobody who feels Murton could be an 850 OPS everyday player has responded to these splits. Interesting.

Why are those stats supposed to make me change my opinion? In his rookie year he had an .807 ops against righties in 69 at bats. The next season he had a .782 split vs righties. Considering he raked against lefties, I see nothing alarming with that split. Last year his numbers vs. righties were down a bit in 144 at bats, but all of his numbers were down last year. Like I said, he doesn't hit well when he doesn't get consistent playing time.

He has a career .820 ops and hasn't gotten a fair chance to continue to improve. Why is it so hard to believe that he could raise his ops 30 points? Antoehr interesting stat... I don't make much of this because it could just be a coincidence, but when he plays left, where he's most comfortable, he has a career .848 ops. Again, I'm not making that out to be anything it's not, but interesting.

[davearm]

Why are those stats supposed to make me change my opinion? In his rookie year he had an .807 ops against righties in 69 at bats. The next season he had a .782 split vs righties. Considering he raked against lefties, I see nothing alarming with that split. Last year his numbers vs. righties were down a bit in 144 at bats, but all of his numbers were down last year. Like I said, he doesn't hit well when he doesn't get consistent playing time.

He has a career .820 ops and hasn't gotten a fair chance to continue to improve. Why is it so hard to believe that he could raise his ops 30 points? Antoehr interesting stat... I don't make much of this because it could just be a coincidence, but when he plays left, where he's most comfortable, he has a career .848 ops. Again, I'm not making that out to be anything it's not, but interesting.

I think it's safe to say that Murton would benefit from settling into an role where he knows he's going to be in LF and getting 4 or 5 ABs every day, and naturally that would serve to improve his OPS.

On the other hand, being exposed to all the top righty pitchers, instead of having his ABs limited to predominantly favorable matchups would have the opposite effect.

Which effect would dominate is purely speculative.

[Bloopandablast]

I bring up the steroids and OPS because they are valid points in an argument, and ones that Orioles fans obviously wouldn't mention. If you guys can try to talk up his value by talking about intangibles and his leadoff skills, why can't I bring up things that detract from his value? I don't really care about the steroids thing, and privately, GMs probably don't care much either. However, baseball isn't a private sport. Whether you like to admit it or not, being on the Mitchell Report hurt his value somewhat. How did I indict myself? By bringing up facts? If you want to make counter arguments, that would be more helpful than insulting me just because I said something negative about an Orioles player.

Orioles fans are seemingly forgetting that they got a multiple time All Star right fielder, formerly face of the Franchise from the Cubs who was tainted with two things 1) steroid user 2) clubhouse problem for the second basemen that Brian Roberts beat out (Hairston).

This brings up a few key issues:

1) All star status has no trade value, only future performance does.

2) Face of the Franchise has no trade value, only future performance does.

3) Tainted by steroids does have a devaluing effect on a trade. In fact it is unbelievable to me that the Astros would trade for Miggy the day before the Mitchell report. Makes me think you got some tainted goods back in return that we just do not know about.

4) Gotta trade guys when their value is high or you get Jerry Hairston in return.