After losing Nick & Nellie and standing pat at the Winter Meetings, O's still the best in AL East

[El Gordo]

I predict Tampa to fall there this year.

:agree: Without Madden and Freidman they're toast.

[DrungoHazewood]

Gotta fill a few holes, though. Not necessarily with huge acquisitions. I'm confident Dan will take care of it.

That said, every season is different. Just look at Boston's yo-yo ride the last three seasons. Our core remains very good, but you never know who gets hurt and for how long, and who just has a lousy year. You simply cannot count on Wieters, Machado and Davis all coming through while nobody else gets hurt or falters. That's not how it works.

Right. The Orioles aren't in a bad position. They need to make up the losses of a few guys and the probable regression of some others. But they have some returnees from injury. A lot of things went right last year that mightn't again, but we'll see. I'm sure the Orioles will be the trendy pick to fall back to .500, and the other teams will get their bumps from churning their rosters. But unless a lot changes before April I don't think there are any clear favorites or tail-enders in the East.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why are people so down on Steve Pearce next season? Last year was the first time he got a chance to play every day and he had a monster season. .930 OPS, 21 home runs and 6 rWAR. 6!!!

Uhhh... because he's 31 and has never remotely approached that kind of performance before. He put up some scarcely believable defensive numbers while constantly shifting around the diamond. He'll be a year older.

I think you have to assume he loses at least half of those six wins.

[ArtVanDelay]

Uhhh... because he's 31 and has never remotely approached that kind of performance before. He put up some scarcely believable defensive numbers while constantly shifting around the diamond. He'll be a year older.

I think you have to assume he loses at least half of those six wins.

He put up 6 WAR in 102 games and you think he'll put up half that in a full season? I strongly disagree.

[weams]

He put up 6 WAR in 102 games and you think he'll put up half that in a full season? I strongly disagree.

I do not believe he will play half as good. I think the defensive stats will treat him half as well. And he pretty much put up a zenith offensively. Wouldn't you agree?

[LoyalBirdFan]

Why don't we let Pearce play next year and see what happens?

[ArtVanDelay]

Uhhh... because he's 31 and has never remotely approached that kind of performance before. He put up some scarcely believable defensive numbers while constantly shifting around the diamond. He'll be a year older.

I think you have to assume he loses at least half of those six wins.

I think he's always been a good hitter. It's just a matter of him staying healthy and getting a chance. He stayed healthy and got a chance last year and he showed that he's capable of being a great player.

[ArtVanDelay]

I do not believe he will play half as good. I think the defensive stats will treat him half as well. And he pretty much put up a zenith offensively. Wouldn't you agree?

I agree about his defense since he won't be playing 1st base. I think he will OPS .850+ next year.

[oriole]

I think he's always been a good hitter. It's just a matter of him staying healthy and getting a chance. He stayed healthy and got a chance last year and he showed that he's capable of being a great player.

Do not count on Steve Pearce. Treat him as a flexible wildcard that can fill in at corner OF, 1B, or DH in case someone else falters. He had a good year and should be given every opportunity to show last year was not an aberration but you should not count on a repeat year.

[25 Nuggets]

Even a 3-WAR season from Pearce is a good thing, especially with his positional flexibility and price.

I'll try to break it down by position, 1-4 stars, my opinion, offense+defense. I'll lump the bench players together to make it an even ten. Projections are from the MLB.com depth charts:

Baltimore

C (Wieters)***

1B (Pearce)***

2B (Schoop)**

3B (Machado)***

SS (Hardy) ***

LF (De Aza)**

CF (Jones)***

RF (Lough)**

DH (Davis)**

bench (Joseph, Flaherty, Paredes?, Walker?)**

------------------

Average = 2.5

Boston

C (Vazquez)*

1B (Napoli)***

2B (Pedroia)****

3B (Sandoval)**

SS (Boegarts) *

LF (Ramirez)***

CF (Castillo)**

RF (Betts)***

DH (Ortiz)***

bench (Butler, Holt, Craig, Nava, Victorino?)***

------------------

Average = 2.5

New York

C (McCann)**

1B (Teixeira)*

2B (Prado)***

3B (Rodriguez)*

SS (Gregorius) **

LF (Gardner)***

CF (Ellsbury)***

RF (Beltran)*

DH (Young)*

bench (Murphy, Romine, Ryan, Pirela)*

------------------

Average = 1.8

Tampa Bay

C (Hanigan)*

1B (Loney)**

2B (Zobrist)***

3B (Longoria)****

SS (Escobar) **

LF (Joyce)**

CF (Kiermaier)***

RF (Myers)*

DH (DeJesus)*

bench (Casali, Franklin, Forsythe, Jennings, Guyer?)***

------------------

Average = 2.2

Toronto

C (Martin)***

1B (Smoak)*

2B (Goins)*

3B (Donaldson)****

SS (Reyes) ***

LF (Saunders)**

CF (Pompey)*

RF (Bautista)****

DH (Encarnacion)****

bench (Navarro, Tolleson, Pillar, Thole/Valencia/Izturis)**

------------------

Average = 2.5

TOTALS

2.5 Baltimore

2.5 Boston

2.5 Toronto

2.2 Tampa Bay

1.8 New York

How would you guys adjust these scores?

[DrungoHazewood]

Why don't we let Pearce play next year and see what happens?

Who suggested otherwise?

[weams]

I agree about his defense since he won't be playing 1st base. I think he will OPS .850+ next year.

So you agree, 3 WAR?

[DrungoHazewood]

I think he's always been a good hitter. It's just a matter of him staying healthy and getting a chance. He stayed healthy and got a chance last year and he showed that he's capable of being a great player.

It would be the story of the decade if the best player in baseball had been unable to establish himself in the majors until 31. Pearce was the best player in baseball last year per at bat, at least among players who played more than a handful of games. It seems wildly implausible that 400 PAs at 31 are much more representative of his ability than his previous 10 years as a professional.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree he is unlikely to repeat his season, but we need to let him try as we all agree. I think he will be a better 120 game guy than 150 game due to his approach. He will need some rest.

Also, guys like Bautista and Encarnacion have made believe a little more in the possibility of a late career breakout power hitter. It still isn't likely, but I'm not as skeptical as I would have been a decade ago.

Bautista has his first season as a regular at 26, Encarnacion at 23. That's vastly different than never having had 200 PAs or a 1-win season through age 30. Literally no one in 140+ years of MLB has had a 5+ win season after having a Pearce career in his 20s.

But no one would be happier than me if Pearce becomes the first Dazzy Vance of position players. (I've often referred to Vance, but he's the guy who had zero MLB wins through age 30, but ended up with a deserving HOF career in his 30s after breaking off something, probably a bone spur, on a table in a poker game and getting emergency surgery in the 1920s to remove it.)