Analyzing the offense the last three years, position by position

[Frobby]

In order to think about whether we have enough offense to win in 2015 despite the loss of Cruz and Markakis, I think it is important to analyze where the offense has been good and bad during the period in which we've been winning, how it's changed, and what we might expect in 2015.

For context, let's remember that the run scoring environment had been changing over the last three years. The league averaged 4.45 runs/game and a .731 OPS in 2012, 4.33 R/G and .725 OPS in 2013, 4.18 R/G and a .706 OPS in 2014. For the Orioles, the figures were 4.40 R/G (9th) and .728 (8th, 97 OPS+) in 2012, 4.60 R/G (4th) and .744 OPS (4th, 101 OPS+) in 2013, and 4.35 R/G (5th) and .735 OPS (3rd, 106 OPS+) in 2014. So the Orioles scored fewer runs in 2014 then they did in 2012, but ranked significantly higher relative to the league in 2014 than in 2012, due to the increasingly pitcher-friendly environment. The Orioles bopped a ton of homers in all three years (214, 212 and 211), ranking 2nd, 1st and 1st in the league as homers per game in the AL shrunk significantly during that period.

Now, here is how it broke down by position. (sOPS+ is OPS compared to others at the position.)

1B

2012: .246/.328/.446, 29 HR, 80 RBI, 98 sOPS+ (Reynolds 105 GS, Davis 38, Betemit 18)

2013: .284/.365/.612, 51 HR, 134 RBI, 149 sOPS+ (Davis 155 GS)

2014: .221/.316/.441, 35 HR, 88 RBI, 99 sOPS+ (Davis 104 GS, Pearce 47)

Comment: How Davis will do in 2015 obviously has a huge impact. I'm glad he got his TUE and hopefully he bounces back at least partway.

2B

2012: .213/.273/.323, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 70 sOPS+ (Andino 96 GS, Quintanilla 27, Flaherty 20, Roberts 17)

2013: .236/.300/.369, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 88 sOPS+ (Roberts 60 GS, Flaherty 59, Casilla 31)

2014: .216/.259/.360, 21 HR, 54 RBI, 79 sOPS+ (Schoop 112 GS, Flaherty 29, (Lombardozzi 17)

Comment: This position has been something of an offensive train wreck for us all three years. If Schoop can have a fairly normal progression (whatever that means), we could see some real gains here over what we've seen in 2012-14.

3B

2012: .251/.311/.419, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 93 sOPS+ (Betemit 69 GS, Machado 51, Reynolds 15, Tolleson 11)

2013: .284/.316/.438, 16 HR, 76 RBI, 104 sOPS+ (Machado 156 GS)

2014: .250/.300/.401, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 95 sOPS+ (Machado 82 GS, Flaherty 27)

Comment: If Manny stays healthy, this position will see big improvement.

SS

2012: .240/.294/.390, 22 HR, 69 RBI, 95 sOPS+ (Hardy 158 GS)

2013: .263/.306/.435, 26 HR, 77 RBI, 116 sOPS+ (Hardy 159 GS)

2014: .268/.311/.376, 10 HR, 63 RBI, 102 sOPS+ (Hardy 141, Flaherty 21)

Comment: Despite Hardy's much lamented power drop last year, he still gave us solid offensive production at a defense-first position.

C

2012: .236/.315/.414, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 103 OPS+ (Wieters 132 GS, Teagarden 15)

2013: .233/.284/.404, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 96 sOPS+ (Wieters 134 GS, Teagarden 18)

2014: .240/.288/.391, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 96 sOPS+ (Joseph 77 GS, Hundley 45, Wieters 22, Clevenger 18)

Comment: The drop-off with Wieters hurt in 2014 wasn't as bad as you might have thought, partly because Wieters had an off year in 2013, partly because Tegarden and the other backups were just awful in 2012-13. If Wieters stays healthy, numbers here will improve and could be the best of the last 4 years, because the backups hit better than Tegarden (a very low bar).

LF

2012: .235/.298/.396, 21 HR, 57 RBI, 83 sOPS+ (McLouth 51 GS, Avery 23, Chavez 21, Pearce 15, Reimold 14, Davis 11)

2013: .251/.320/.385, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 92 sOPS+ (McLouth 124 GS, Pearce 19, Reimold 11)

2014: .271/.336/.492, 30 HR, 81 RBI, 127 sOPS+ (Cruz 60 GS, Lough 38, Pearce 27, De Aza 20, Young 17)

Comment: We are going to see a significant power drop in LF with Cruz gone, but the BA and OBP could be matched.

CF

2012: .289/.336/.511, 33 HR, 85 RBI, 124 sOPS+ (Jones 161 GS)

2013: .285/.319/.484, 34 HR, 111 RBI, 120 sOPS+ (Jones 156 GS)

2014: .273/.304/.458, 29 HR, 97 RBI, 110 sOPS+ (Jones 153 GS, Lough 9)

Comment: Steady as she goes. Just hope Jones stays healthy.

RF

2012: .283/.346/.469, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 114 sOPS+ (Markakis 104 GS, Davis 28, Chavez 13)

2013: .275/.328/.360, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 83 sOPS+ (Markakis 154 GS)

2014: .281/.346/.416, 19 HR, 58 RBI, 108 sOPS+ (Markakis 147, Cruz 10, Pearce 4)

Comment: The solid 2014 sOPS+ number was helped a lot by the performance of Cruz and Pearce in their limited games there. Both happened to hit extremely well in the games where they played RF.

DH

2012: .240/.323/.407, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 94 sOPS+ (Davis 60 GS, Thome 27, Johnson 20, Reynolds 12)

2013: .234/.289/.415, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 93 sOPS+ (Valencia 42 GS, Reimold 28, Dickerson 24, Pearce 20, Roberts 15, Urrutia 14)

2014: .278/.332/.464, 26 HR, 90 RBI, 116 sOPS+ (Cruz 89 GS, Young 39)

Comment: We could see a big drop here, especially if we don't re-sign Young or find a suitable equivalent.

Analysis:

SS and CF are the only two positions where the same player played 105+ games at the position all three years. RF was also pretty stable, but Nick Markakis is gone now. It's amazing how little stability there has been, and folks should remember that change is the rule, not the exception.

I like our chances to get better offensive production at 1B, 2B, 3B and C. SS and CF should be stable unless injuries intervene. LF, RF and DH are the vulnerable spots, but you didn't need this detailed analysis to know that.

In short, we've never had a truly elite offense in the last three years, but we improved from slightly below average to somewhat above average. I'd guesstimate that as the roster stands today, we have a league average offense that will take a small step back from last year, but still be better than the offense that we were able to carry to the playoffs in 2012. Our pitching and defense are better now than in 2012, and the pitching is better than in 2013. I think we can still win 90ish games with the roster we have at the moment, but I'd feel much better if we found a bat or two -- not necessarily stars, but someone who can fill a role.

[mdbdotcom]

I am very hopeful and somewhat confident that the maturation of Machado and Schoop plus Wieters' return more than makes up for the loss of Cruz. Signing Delmon and adding a LH bat would make me even more confident.

[canonfaz]

I am very hopeful and somewhat confident that the maturation of Machado and Schoop plus Wieters' return more than makes up for the loss of Cruz. Signing Delmon and adding a LH bat would make me even more confident.

Steve Pearce having a year close to what he had last year would help too. A big key with him is health as well.

[33rdst]

Well done. What I take away from your analysis are few things.

1. Depth is extremely important. It takes a 40 man roster to compete over the course of the season. People get hurt. Slumps occur. People don't perform. Fortunately we have a couple of men who are masters at roster management.

2. Our pitching and defense were rock solid most of last year and were the major reason for our success.

3. Overall production at each position is important. Even stars falter over a long season. Their replacements need to come in and produce to help the team consistently win. (Another way of saying depth is important.)

4.) We have a solid corp of players, offense and defense. We need to fill holes with consistent production. Maybe with more then one player at a given position. We don't need to break the bank on a bloated long term contract.

[canonfaz]

Well done. What I take away from your analysis are few things.

1. Depth is extremely important. It takes a 40 man roster to compete over the course of the season. People get hurt. Slumps occur. People don't perform. Fortunately we have a couple of men who are masters at roster management.

2. Our pitching and defense were rock solid most of last year and were the major reason for our success.

3. Overall production at each position is important. Even stars falter over a long season. Their replacements need to come in and produce to help the team consistently win. (Another way of saying depth is important.)

4.) We have a solid corp of players, offense and defense. We need to fill holes with consistent production. Maybe with more then one player at a given position. We don't need to break the bank on a bloated long term contract.

Good points. As long as Adam, JJ, and Machado are consistent and healthy the next few years (and Tillman, Gausman, Britton on the pitching side), then I think we will be able to field consistently competitive teams.

[wildcard]

The O's need to improve their OBP, especially at the top of the order. The loss of Markakis and Cruz have made the OBP worse. De Aza at the top of the order has not been as consistent as Markakis.

Adding Aoki and Young would help bring the OBP back to close to where it was last year. Seth Smith who is a good OBP player vs righthanded pitching has mostly a leftfield arm like Pearce which would leave the defense weaker in rightfield. Smith and De Aza are mostly platoon players though both have had times when they have hit righthanders. They just have not been consistent.

DD's history shows that he will make some moves to improve the O's.

Alvarez's is interested because DD has went in two different directions to fill holes with minor leaguers in the past. At 2nd base DD rushed Schoop offensively to the majors because he was strong defensively. That would appear to favor rushing Alvarez who is reportedly strong defensively in rightfield. However, DD spent big to sign Jimenez instead of rushing Gausman. This would appear to favor keeping Alvarez at AAA until he earns a promotion. It will be interesting to see where this goes.

[Frobby]

The O's need to improve their OBP, especially at the top of the order. The loss of Markakis and Cruz have made the OBP worse. De Aza at the top of the order has not been as consistent as Markakis.

Adding Aoki and Young would help bring the OBP back to close to where it was last year. Seth Smith who is a good OBP player vs righthanded pitching has mostly a leftfield arm like Pearce which would leave the defense weaker in rightfield. Smith and De Aza are mostly platoon players though both have had times when they have hit righthanders. They just have not been consistent.

DD's history shows that he will make some moves to improve the O's.

Alvarez's is interested because DD has went in two different directions to fill holes with minor leaguers in the past. At 2nd base DD rushed Schoop offensively to the majors because he was strong defensively. That would appear to favor rushing Alvarez who is reportedly strong defensively in rightfield. However, DD spent big to sign Jimenez instead of rushing Gausman. This would appear to favor keeping Alvarez at AAA until he earns a promotion. It will be interesting to see where this goes.

I don't think the Alvarez situation is that analogous to Schoop's. As outlined in the OP, our offensive performance at 2B stunk in 2012-13, so we weren't really losing anything by giving Schoop his shot, and we had a backup plan. Also, I think Schoop didn't go into spring training as Plan A; he won the job by playing very well in the spring. I think we want to be in that same position with Alvarez; if he makes the roster, it should be something of an upset.

[wildcard]

I don't think the Alvarez situation is that analogous to Schoop's. As outlined in the OP, our offensive performance at 2B stunk in 2012-13, so we weren't really losing anything by giving Schoop his shot, and we had a backup plan. Also, I think Schoop didn't go into spring training as Plan A; he won the job by playing very well in the spring. I think we want to be in that same position with Alvarez; if he makes the roster, it should be something of an upset.

I don't think that the O's were that accepting about Schoop's poor offensive showing. They needed him in the lineup to start the season with Manny on the DL and Flaherty covering 3B. It was his defense that kept Schoop in the lineup. But as the season moved on I think the O's expected Schoop to improve offensively. He really didn't.

Thus the acquisition of Rey Navarro to give Schoop some competition. Navarro has been an All-Star at AA two years in a row. He also hit better at AAA then Schoop did. I don't know what result will come from the ST competition but both players have options so the O's can keep both in the organization.

I think DD is still looking to improve 2B as well as rightfield. Though you don't see the similarity, I do. DD has said that the O's good players will come from the minors and though not all that are tried will work out, I expect DD to keep giving opportunities to players from the O's farm system. Alvarez, Walker and Navarro appear to be the next players in line for opportunities among position players.