Are we really smarter?

[DrungoHazewood]

I sure do. So we are 31 years and counting. I also realize that the average team makes the World Series every 15 years. We are 31 years and counting there. The average team wins the division every 5 years. Until last year, we were 16 years and counting there. I am not sure averages mean very much when SF Giants fans have had the pleasure of enjoying 3 championships in 5 seasons.

Life is more enjoyable when you don't give a hoot what other people have. Let the Giants have theirs. We'll get ours one day. Probably.

[Orioles West]

Kudos to both MurphDogg and terps19 for their responses. I'm glad we are now at the point where 2013 is considered a "bad" season!

That said, while the 2014 team didn't overperform in the same way that the 2012 team did, there's definitely room for slippage and losing a few good players while doing little to replace them is risky. Gun to my head, if you asked me today are the Orioles more likely to win 85 games or 96 games with the roster that exists now, I'd go with 85. I expect the O's to make some moves between now and Opening Day to improve the roster, but maybe not moves as high profile as Jimenez and Cruz were.

I think your numbers are spot on. Without substantive turn arounds for Davis and Jimenez, 85 wins is about where the O's are right now, and that is IF the rest of the team stays healthy. Outside of a trade, I'm not seeing any particular free agents that will substantially change that number - other than Sherzer, who is an unlikely target.

-Don

[Guest]

I think your numbers are spot on. Without substantive turn arounds for Davis and Jimenez, 85 wins is about where the O's are right now, and that is IF the rest of the team stays healthy. Outside of a trade, I'm not seeing any particular free agents that will substantially change that number - other than Sherzer, who is an unlikely target.

-Don

You just watch Colby Rasmus is gonna be a beast for us.

[LoyalBirdFan]

No team can spend enough in December to increase the WS odds enough to make the chances change appreciably between WS and good shot at the play-offs. That just isn't how baseball works. Basketball works that way.

:agree:

This is the reality of baseball. Sixty percent and you are elite, forty percent and you draft first.

[DrungoHazewood]

This isn't really aimed at anyone, but it confuses me how anyone can watch SFG win 3 in 5 years AFTER Bonds retired and with the teamcarrying one of the worst contracts ever (Zito) and not realize that preparation without luck and timing mean very little in this game. SFG wasn't nearly the most talented team last year or arguably in any of their years. Congrats to them, but they just illustrate how much luck is involved. So do the Braves during that historic run that provided only one WS win, but in the other direction.

They wanted it more.

[PA724_Oriole]

This isn't really aimed at anyone, but it confuses me how anyone can watch SFG win 3 in 5 years AFTER Bonds retired and with the teamcarrying one of the worst contracts ever (Zito) and not realize that preparation without luck and timing mean very little in this game. SFG wasn't nearly the most talented team last year or arguably in any of their years. Congrats to them, but they just illustrate how much luck is involved. So do the Braves during that historic run that provided only one WS win, but in the other direction.

Not sure if I would agree with that. You win one WS you can throw the luck word around. When.tou win Three in Five years, it definitely proves there is more to it than luck.

I would say the Orioles have been "luckier" than the Giants over the past 5 years. No?

You can say the Royals.for lucky. But you can't say a team like the SFG are lucky when they have had that much success.

[DrungoHazewood]

But you can't say a team like the SFG are lucky when they have had that much success.

No, you can most definitely say that.

[TheDirtyBird]

No team can spend enough in December to increase the WS odds enough to make the chances change appreciably between WS and good shot at the play-offs. That just isn't how baseball works. Basketball works that way.

In this instance I was just saying I'd like to see a WS, I in no way said spend

[MurphDogg]

They wanted it more.

TWTW. The most important stat in baseball.

[TheDirtyBird]

Me too, my friend, me too...

I'm 44. I was 13 when I was saw Ripken catch that soft liner in Philly. It seems like a lifetime ago.

I'm newly 25, I've seen nothing haha. Sounds glorious. My best memories are vaguely Ripkens last game and going to the Detroit series this year

[Frobby]

Not sure if I would agree with that. You win one WS you can throw the luck word around. When.tou win Three in Five years, it definitely proves there is more to it than luck.

I would say the Orioles have been "luckier" than the Giants over the past 5 years. No?

You can say the Royals.for lucky. But you can't say a team like the SFG are lucky when they have had that much success.

I don't really like the word "luck," let's just say fortunate timing of playing well. When a wild card team wins the World Series, that requires some good fortune. And as Buck has pointed out a number of times, the number of off-days you get in the post-season favors a team who has an ace but a poor back end of the rotation over a team that has five pretty good starters.

[Stotle]

Ok, so let's look at the end game while making sure that we are on the same page with some ground rules.

I assume you agree with the following:

1) Dan shouldn't say in November "Everyone is typically overpriced when everyone has money so we will likely wait until later in the offseason to make our signings since we expect the value to better there.

2) He also isn't allowed to say specific names of who they are targeting and shouldn't even if he could.

3) He shouldn't tip his hand on his exact payroll. General statements like the ones that have been made regarding his expectation that payroll will go up a bit in 2015 are about the limit of what he should say.

So, if we agree with 1,2, and 3, what would you expect Dan to do differently to reassure the fans that wouldn't undermine his position in getting the best players within his budget?

What I would expect if for the fans to be able to read a fairly simple spreadsheet and do a little math. We have 10-18M to spend to bring the budget to where we expect it now that the decisions have been made to offer arbitration to all 9 eligible.

What would make anyone think that Dan isn't going to use the money available? I would hope this isn't even debatable.

What would make anyone think that Dan is going to spend it foolishly? I would hope 2012-2014 have earned him some faith here especially since 10-18M dollars doesn't leave a wide variation in projected outcomes.

What would make anyone think that nobody will be available in January? Players are always available that late.

I guess I don't see what the point in getting upset is if you understand the ground rules. I've got preferences but I haven't seen any of those preferences go off the board for the money remaining. Cruz was close for me and I might have gotten close to the Seattle offer, but I wouldn't have met it.

What exactly are you expecting Dan to do to reassure the fans that hasn't been done? And if you expect nothing more to be communicated until this point, what exactly is your point? Is worrying in the face of logic which says there is little reason to worry a value added action? Is doesn't appear so to me.

I don't care what the Orioles do or don't do. Neither do I care what schedule they work off of and what overall approach they take. What I am stating is that I can understand why the fan of a team could get frustrated with inaction.

I'm not asking you to be angry or frustrated. I just don't like the thought of shrugging off a fan's expressed frustration at the lack of moves thus far. Fans invest emotional capital into a team and I can understand why some would be anxious to see Baltimore operate in a more proactive manner. The deals are much better in January/February, but you also don't have the same breadth of options. Maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe it does.

The final point is that the idea that Baltimore can only add $10-15MM in payroll should be completely divorced from the timing of the organization's moves. If you need to clear space, you do so via trade. There isn't any reason to act like Baltimore has no choice but to wait until the end of the off-season.

[Orioles4Life21]

Baltimore Orioles

Dammit, Orioles.

For the third straight offseason -- and I didn't really check the offseasons before that, either -- the Orioles made it through the Winter Meetings without a major move. So far, it's Wesley Wright and only Wesley Wright, and that just happened. Nick Markakis is gone. Delmon Young is gone. Cruz is with the Mariners. As of now, the top first baseman on their depth chart is Christian Walker, who had a .335 on-base percentage in Triple-A last year. The Orioles thought they were going to bring Markakis back on a four-year deal. Instead, they're looking at Steve Pearce, everyday right fielder, and Alejandro De Aza, leadoff hitter.

Their needs are obvious: At least one more corner player. Could be a left fielder, right fielder, or a first baseman. If the Orioles want to keep Chris Davis in the field, their options are wide open for a DH. If they start the season with this permutation, it will be stunning. There just aren't as many options as there once were, of course. Michael Morse is gone, Melky Cabrera was never a serious consideration, Billy Butler signed early, the White Sox scooped up Adam LaRoche ... it's starting to look like it's trade or bust for the Orioles.

Bringing Delmon back and waiting for March wouldn't be much of an offseason plan. That isn't what the Orioles are going to do, right?

Right?

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/12/18/7416643/mlb-rumors-free-agents-trades-rangers-giants-nationals-orioles

What is the point of even including the part about Walker?

[tntoriole]

This isn't really aimed at anyone, but it confuses me how anyone can watch SFG win 3 in 5 years AFTER Bonds retired and with the teamcarrying one of the worst contracts ever (Zito) and not realize that preparation without luck and timing mean very little in this game. SFG wasn't nearly the most talented team last year or arguably in any of their years. Congrats to them, but they just illustrate how much luck is involved. So do the Braves during that historic run that provided only one WS win, but in the other direction.

Agreed! Like the Orioles winning only one championship in the 1969-1971 string of three seasons where their team was not only the best in baseball but perhaps one of the best teams of all time. Bad luck. Or the Orioles winning over 97 games in a season (1977) and 100 games in a season (1980) or having the most wins combined during the 2 halfs of the strike season of 1981 or winning 94 games through the last day of the 1982 season and not even getting into the playoffs because there was no such thing as a wild card. Bad luck. Being good is important, but winning the World Series is about good fortune and timing even more than talent.

[JR Oriole]

If the Os of 1969 - 1971 can only win one series despite having the most talent in the majors, then I suppose the 2010 - 2014 Giants can win three series despite having a roster that looks completely mediocre in every aspect.

Even Bumgartner is a mystery to me.....guy doesn't come up there with unhittable stuff, and most of the time he is near the strike zone. I have no idea how nobody hits him, yet they don't. Each of those Royals relievers was much more filthy than Madbum, but I guess like Maddux he just throws them where the hitters aren't expecting them?