HHP: The O's have eleven million dollars for three players

[wildcard]

If you are wondering why the O's are taking so long to fill their roster, its the budget.

The O's are currently at 116M dollars with the signed players, the arbitration players at MLBTR projected rates, and enough 0-3 year players to fill out the 25 man roster. However, 4.25M of that is deferred. Jimenez (2.25M) and Hardy (2M) deferrals lower the money the O's will actually pay in 2015 to 111.8M.

The acquisition of Wesley Wright means that Matusz will probably be coming off the roster at some point. Whether that is a trade for a major or minor leaguer depends on the offers. Subtracting his 2.7M brings the O's payroll to just over 109M currently. The budget for 2015 is probably around 120M if the O's increase payroll as they have for the past two years.

So the O's have around 11m to spend and need three players. A rightfielder, a part time DH and a backup catcher in case Wieters is not ready to start the season. The O's are probably considering that even though Christian Walker and Dariel Alvarez will not start the year with the O's, they are in the O's plans. Low cost players that can contribute at some point in the near future. That may influence the team on the three players acquired.

By 2016 the first baseman and DH may be filled by Pearce and Walker. Alvarez may be the rightfielder. Pearce is a FA after 2015 but he will not be that expensive to sign. The O's need a flow of young players to keep the team young and keep payroll under control. So this thinking probably goes into the O's strategy for signing the last three players.

The three players that are the most vulnerable to go to make room for the three additions are Matusz in trade plus Quintin Berry and Steve Clevenger who would be outrighted. Clevenger has never been outrighted so he must accept the assignment to AAA. Berry has been outrighted before and can refuse the assignment and become a free agent if he wants. Both players could still get invitations to ST.

This is why the O's are waiting for prices to drop. Its the budget and how these three stop gap players fit into the overall strategy of how the team may evolve. The players have to be good enough to help the O's to the playoffs but not so expensive or require long term commitments that precluded the O's young players from advancing when they are ready.

Dan Duquette knows that he will probably add players in July and/or August to fill holes and increase the O's chances of getting to and winning in the playoffs. Players are cheaper at the trade deadline. Andrew Miller was acquired for 633K and a minor leaguer. There will be money available for those kind of acquisitions if they are required.

So Dan waits for the prices to drop. And we wait with him. Here is the current payroll: (All budget numbers are my best guess)

2015 Payroll Estimate

1) 13m Jones - CF

2) 12.25m Jimenez - SP1/RP7

3) 11.8m Davis - 1B

4) 11.5m Hardy - SS

5) 8.7m Norris - SP2

6) 7.9m Wieters - C

7) 5.9m De Aza - LF

8) 5.4m Tillman - SP3

9) 4.75m Chen - SP4

10) 4.4m Hunter - RP1

11) 4.25m O'Day - RP2

12) 3.7m Gonzalez - SP5

13) 3.2m Britton - RP3

14) 2.75m Webb - RP4

15) 2.7m Matusz - RP5

16) 2.2m Pearce - DH/1B/OF

17) 2m Markakis - (Buyout)

18) 1.75m Yoon - RP (starts in the minors)

19) 1.7m W. Wright - RP

20) 1m Flaherty - UIF

21) .53m Machado - 3B

22) .52m Gausman - SP6

23) .52m Schoop - 2B

24) .515m Joseph - C

25) .51m Brach - RP6

26) .507.5m Paredes - 2B/3B

27) .507.5m Lough - OF

28) .507.5m Hassan

29) .5m Bonilla (deferred compensation)

30) .445m Bundy (starts in the minors)

Sub Total 116.07m of earned salary

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Total 111.82m salaries to be paid in 2015

It has been reported the 6.5M of Hardy's contract is deferred but no word yet on how it is distributed over the contract term.

Signing bonuses are shown in the year they are paid. Performance bonuses are not included.

[33rdst]

Good work. I wouldn't bank on Matusz being traded though. If they did move him I would treat it as found money. So that leaves about 9 million. The market for players like Rasmus, and Aoki, would really have to drop for them to fall into our hands, even on one year deals. A deal for Delmon at 2 years 4 million seems doable. The trade for Snider would have been ideal since it basically would have been a swap of contracts. The budget constraints lend themselves more toward trades then free agent signings I think.

[Frobby]

The budget for 2015 is probably around 120M if the O's increase payroll as they have the for the past two years.

Pretty big assumption there. We have no idea what Duqette's budget is, though he did say he expected it to be higher than last year's.

[fearthenoodle]

There is no hard cap on their payroll. I don't buy the $11MM number, other than as a floor. I appreciate all the effort on putting together the projected salaries, though.

[33rdst]

I agree with Wildcard's assessment of a 120 million budget limit. It's a reasonable assumption based on the teams past spending practices.

[wildcard]

Pretty big assumption there. We have no idea what Duqette's budget is, though he did say he expected it to be higher than last year's.

The final budget for 2013 was 98M. They finished 2014 at 107M. 120M may a little high for that progresion but considering the national TV contract and how other teams are spending I think 120M is about right. But you are right. Its a guess.

[fearthenoodle]

Payroll went up 9% from 2012 to 2013, and 17% from 2013 to 2014.

$120MM would be about an 11% bump. That's within the realm of possibility, certainly, but I think it's a mistake to act like it's definitive.

[fearthenoodle]

The final budget for 2013 was 98M. They finished 2014 at 107M. 120M may a little high for that progresion but considering the national TV contract and how other teams are spending I think 120M is about right. But you are right. Its a guess.

They started 2014 at $107MM. They finished at $112.7MM.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/b29d26ed25a14e19a2ab44e7d29ce8b2/apnewsbreak-dodgers-end-yanks-payroll-streak-owe-most-tax' rel="external nofollow">

LINK

[33rdst]

Yeah the O's have averaged about 10% over the last six years. This reality seems to be lost on those who think Angelos is going to spend big on free agents. Duquette is the right man for this job. It is what it is.

[33rdst]

Kudos to Wildcard for this thread. WhatI like about it is that it helps us understand the problem that a GM faces when he operates under significant budget restraints.

Here's a challenge for all of the would be GMs out there. How would you have handled this off season with a 120 million dollar budget? Would you have non- tendered more players to free up dollars? Not a very deep free agent market. Would extra money have made a difference?

[Aristotelian]

Great post. For people who want a big signing, in order to make it happen you cannot just say "increase payroll." Extending JJ was a great decision but really limits our ability to keep other guys (Nick, Nelson) or bring in outside free agents.

If we are going to make a big move, I think it will involve trading Bud Norris. There should be a market for him and clearing his salary would give us some freedom to fill those holes. I know Duquette likes depth, but he has to believe in Ubaldo and Gausman is ready to join the rotation full time. That gives us five starters without Bud plus a number of options for depth - TJ, Tyler Wilson, Gamboa, Mike Wright, maybe Chris Jones. For the long term health of the organization, we need to see what some of these guys can do too, just like Walker and Alvarez.

[wildcard]

They started 2014 at $107MM. They finished at $112.7MM.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/b29d26ed25a14e19a2ab44e7d29ce8b2/apnewsbreak-dodgers-end-yanks-payroll-streak-owe-most-tax' rel="external nofollow">

LINK

The devil is in the details. Does the 112M include the deferred money? A lot of estimates I have seen to mess up the Patton for Hundley trade. Though Hundley's salary was higher the O's received 1.5M in cash. That has to be accounted for. Here are the numbers I have for the 2014 payroll. Did they subtract the 961K from the Davis suspension?

O's 2014 final salaries

1) 15m Markakis -RF

2) 13m Jones - CF

3) 10.35m Davis - 1B (less .961m on the restricted list)

4) 9m Jimenez - SP/RP (2.25m deferred)

5) 8m Hardy - SS

6) 8m Cruz - DH/LF

7) 7.7m Wieters - C (Done for the year)

8) 5.3m Norris - SP1

9) 4.072m Chen - SP2

10) 3.2m O'Day - RP1

11) 3m Santana - SP (Done for the year)

12) 3m Hunter - RP2

13) 2.8m Hundley - C (prorated portion of 4M)(received 1.5m in cash)

14) 2.4m Matusz - RP3

15) 1.75m Webb - RP

16) 1.425m Yoon - RP (starts season in the minors)

17) 1m Young - DH/LF

18) .85m Pearce - RH DH/1B

19) .8m Meek - RP

20) .708m De Aza - OF (prorated portion of 4.25m)

21) .633m Miller - RP4 (prorated portion of 1.9m)

22) .550m Peguero - (outrighted to the minors)

23) .546m Tillman - SP3

24) .529m Miguel Gonzalez - SP4

25) .5215m Britton - RP5

26) .519m Machado - 3B (Done for the year)

27) .5125m Flaherty - UIF

28) .5105m Lough - LF/4th OF

29) .504m Stinson - SP/RP

30) .5005m Schoop - 2B

31) .5m Kelly Johnson - IF (prorated portion of 3M)

32) .5m Reimold - (waived, claimed by the Blue Jays)

33) .445m Bundy (starts in the minors)

34) .399m Joseph - BU C (prorated portion of .5m)

35) .386m McFarland RP6 (prorated portion of .5055m)

36) .362m Brach - RP7 (prorated portion of .5095m)

37) .276m Gausman - SP5 (prorated portion of .5095m)

38) .357M Clevenger - C (prorated portion of .505m)

39) .253m Escalona - (prorated portion of .55m)

40) .250m Almanzar - IF (returned to Boston)(traded to O?s on minor league salary)

41) .207m Patton - (prorated portion of 1.275m)(traded)

42) .123m De La Cruz - (termination pay as portion of .5m)

43) .098m Guilmet - RP (prorated portion of .5M)

44) .096m Lombardozzi (prorated portion of .5175m)

45) .087m Paredes - IF (prorated portion of .5m)

46) .077m Saunders - RP (prorated portion of .5m)

47) .074m Quintin Berry - OF (prorated portion of .5m)

48) .034m Weeks - DH/2B (prorated portion of .515m)(traded)

49) .033m Phelps - IF (prorated portion of .5m)

50) .033m Walker - 1B (prorated protion of .5m)

51) .016m Ramirez - (prorated portion of .5m)

52) .005m Casilla - UIF (prorated portionof .5m)

53) .003m TBerry - (prorated portion of .5m)

54) .003m DePaula - (prorated portion of .5m)

Sub Total 109.298m

Minus 1.5m received from Padres

Minus .961k for Davis on the restricted list

Sub Total 106.832m (amount paid out in 2014)

Plus 2.25m deferred Jimenez

Total 109.082 earned with deferred salary

Signing bonuses are included in the year the player is signed. Performance bonuses are not included.

[33rdst]

If you go with 120M you would have to assume that the O's never had any intention of signing both Cruz and Markakis. That would have gone way past 120M. Also, even just signing Markakis would have precluded any other moves. I think 120M is a good guess on the payroll but I don't think that's the budget. I think the O's were prepared to go over it and now I think there's a good possibility that they stay under it.

Given what remains in free agency and what Duquette has said about Alvarez, you may be right. Having this budget helps you understand what an awful contract Jimenez has and what bad luck it was that weiters got hurt and Davis sucked. Duquette can't use these options to free up payroll if he wanted to.

[24fps]

Unless there was some crazy deferral, the offers to Markakis and Cruz that were declined must have totaled at least $20 million for 2015. Except for Wright, that money hasn't been spent yet.

[fearthenoodle]

The devil is in the details.

I agree with this, but I don't see any reason to doubt the numbers provided by the AP.