How many sure things do we have in our lineup right now?

[weams]

Do you realize there were only 13 qualifiers who had an .800+ OPS in the entire AL last year? That's less than one per team. The Royals had none. Same with Oakland. Toronto, on the other hand, had two guys over .900.

He does not want to hear the truth tonight. We caught him in a bad mood. He made the snarky first post in the thread and went from there.

[Roll Tide]

How many sure things did the O's have last off season.

Jones, Davis, Wieters and Hardy, but two turned out not to be sure at all and another forgot how to hit for power.

Schoop was a minor leaguer

Machado was coming off an injury

Markakis was coming off a sub 700 OPS season

Cruz was coming off a drug suspension and most every one in the league passed on him.

Lough was just traded from KC for Valencia as the O's leftfielder. Nothing sure there.

And the O's won the AL East by 12 games.

Expecting a repeat is optimistic....I fully expect the team as it currently is to struggle scoring runs.

[weams]

At times last year this team struggled to score runs when they didn't get the long ball. The situational hitting and OBP were in need of an upgrade. With Cruz and Markakis gone we lost two of our better guys in regards to both. Pretending that isn't the case is just dumb. Me thinks you been drinking the koolaid!

Worrying about what you are going to get out of Machado and Wieters is a legitimate concern.

What is situational hitting? How is it measured. Or is it like saying that Nick has great OBP when his OPS is so low. Where is this coming from?

[weams]

Expecting a repeat is optimistic....I fully expect the team as it currently is to struggle scoring runs.

I think we will scores similar to our last three seasons. We've lost nothing relevant.

[tntoriole]

I count two. Jones and Hardy.

At catcher, Matt Wieters is coming off major surgery and it is unknown when he be able to start playing games or how much of the season he will be able to play at catcher.

At first base, Chris Davis is coming off a season where he hit .196.

At second base, Jonathan Schoop is a huge offensive liability unless he is able to significantly improve from his rookie season.

At third base, Manny Machado is coming off his second knee surgery in two years. There are serious health concerns, although if you wanted to add Machado to the list of sure things I can see the argument.

At DH, LF, RF we are likely going to into the season with a slew of part time/platoon players and Sean Pearce, who is coming off a career year in his first (close to) full season in the bigs.

On any other team expected to contend in 2015 I think you will find more than two or three players that can be completely relied on for average or better than average production at their position. This is a major concern.

I can recall very few baseball seasons over the last fifty years won by "sure things." Teams always have unexpected performances, injuries, career years. This is just life and baseball. You could go out and buy every free agent on the market and those same players could have an injury or poor year, etc. So, I am not really sure what the point of the post is. Except I don't remember Sean Pearce, was he Steve's brother? Wieters and Machado yes had surgery. But what are you going to do about that? Trade for another great third baseman because Manny has had knee surgery? Trade for an All Star catcher because Wieters had surgery? No, you just play the hand you are dealt because there is also the glass full possibility (which is just as possible as your glass empty, pessimistic view), namely, that Matt and Manny have rebound career years and outperform your expectations. Or that Jonathan Schoop breakouts out and becomes a force to be reckoned with. Or that Chris's Adderall kicks in and he returns somewhere nearer to 2013. Speculations are just that, speculations. But you don't build a baseball team out of fear about what part of the sky might fall.

[El Gordo]

I count two. Jones and Hardy.

At catcher, Matt Wieters is coming off major surgery and it is unknown when he be able to start playing games or how much of the season he will be able to play at catcher.

At first base, Chris Davis is coming off a season where he hit .196.

At second base, Jonathan Schoop is a huge offensive liability unless he is able to significantly improve from his rookie season.

At third base, Manny Machado is coming off his second knee surgery in two years. There are serious health concerns, although if you wanted to add Machado to the list of sure things I can see the argument.

At DH, LF, RF we are likely going to into the season with a slew of part time/platoon players and Sean Pearce, who is coming off a career year in his first (close to) full season in the bigs.

On any other team expected to contend in 2015 I think you will find more than two or three players that can be completely relied on for average or better than average production at their position. This is a major concern.

I count none. There are no sure things in baseball.

[DrungoHazewood]

Sure Thing.

Alejandro De Aza Minimum .735 OPS

He's done that twice in his MLB career, once in a season with 171 PAs. Last two years he's sitting at .716.

Steve Pearce Minimum .745 OPS

Matt Wieters Minimum .735 OPS

Manny Machado Minimum .735 OPS

I certainly think/hope all three of those could exceed those marks, maybe by a lot. Machado especially could break out. But both Pearce and Wieters have had multiple seasons worse than that.

[DrungoHazewood]

Cruz carried the team the first 6 weeks. If not for him, 2014 would have been different. Amazing how average he is now that he's not an Oriole.

I'm pretty sure I could find threads from August of last year lamenting how badly Cruz was slumping, since he OPS'd .666 from June 9th through August 30th. Like this. And this.

[Dark Helmet]

Do you realize there were only 13 qualifiers who had an .800+ OPS in the entire AL last year? That's less than one per team. The Royals had none. Same with Oakland. Toronto, on the other hand, had two guys over .900.

Problem is, the O's OPS is mostly slugging.

[Dark Helmet]

I'm pretty sure I could find threads from August of last year lamenting how badly Cruz was slumping, since he OPS'd .666 from June 9th through August 30th. Like this. And this.

Ok. I didn't realize the first 6 weeks included june. My bad.

[weams]

He's done that twice in his MLB career, once in a season with 171 PAs. Last two years he's sitting at .716.

I certainly think/hope all three of those could exceed those marks, maybe by a lot. Machado especially could break out. But both Pearce and Wieters have had multiple seasons worse than that.

Thanks. I'll revise that. So he is more like Nick Markakis that way. I'll fix it.

[Dark Helmet]

I strongly disagree with this post. Do you see me making any outrageous predictions? You are just running with something.

You called me foolish for saying there's a possibility they won't contend.

[Dark Helmet]

He does not want to hear the truth tonight. We caught him in a bad mood. He made the snarky first post in the thread and went from there.

Snarky? It wasn't snarky. I said this thread wasn't going to go well. And look at what it's turned into. Whatever man.

[weams]

Problem is, the O's OPS is mostly slugging.

So. That's good too. That's why OPS is a real good stat.

[weams]

Snarky? It wasn't snarky. I said this thread wasn't going to go well. And look at what it's turned into. Whatever man.

Ok, I took it wrong. My apology.