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What's Chen going to get?


Frobby

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A few current contracts:

Buehrle 4/$58 mm

E. Santana 4/$55 mm

E. Jackson 4/$52 mm

Jimenez 4/$50 mm

Nolasco 4/$49 mm

McCarthy 4/$48 mm

Hughes 3/$42 mm (2017-19 extension plus raise for 2015-16)

Liriano 3/$39 mm

Any reason at all to think Chen won't get something in this ballpark?

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A few current contracts:

Buehrle 4/$58 mm

E. Santana 4/$55 mm

E. Jackson 4/$52 mm

Jimenez 4/$50 mm

Nolasco 4/$49 mm

McCarthy 4/$48 mm

Hughes 3/$42 mm (2017-19 extension plus raise for 2015-16)

Liriano 3/$39 mm

Any reason at all to think Chen won't get something in this ballpark?

Nope. I look at the McCarthy deal and think that's where Chen is going to be. We'll get a draft pick for him.

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Seeing these threads about us losing our own guys year in and year because of financial constraints, is getting depressing. Chen is a solid arm, and it's not just him, but I am sure there will be a Wieters thread next year about him leaving as well. Sorry, I usually don't post, but it is a little disheartening at this point.

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I will be interested to see what Shields gets. His career numbers are pretty similar to Chen's. Good combination of durability and consistency, better-than-average-but-not-elite stuff, lock for 12-16 wins, but Chen will be three years younger than Shields is now and he is lefthanded, plus he has Boras as his agent. He will not be cheap.

Another good comp would be CJ Wilson. Lefty, put up 2 great seasons after converting to SP. Elite ERA but high walks, and I thought his stuff was not quite as good as his ERA. He got 5 years/$77M at Age 32. I think that might be a "ceiling" comp for Chen.

By the way, that Buehrle contract is bizarre. MIA signed him for four years but only paid $6 million the first year, then traded him. Now TOR is paying him $20M. Pretty brilliant move by the Fish. But the better comp might be his previous one signed at Age 29, 4 years, $64M in 2008. In today's dollars that is more like $75M.

So, somewhere between 4/$50M and 5/$75M.

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Seeing these threads about us losing our own guys year in and year because of financial constraints, is getting depressing. Chen is a solid arm, and it's not just him, but I am sure there will be a Wieters thread next year about him leaving as well. Sorry, I usually don't post, but it is a little disheartening at this point.

We locked up AJ. We locked up JJ. You can't keep everyone. Along with Manny, those are the guys I want to keep.

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Question: how much are the Os a minor league type franchise, where we develop players and then let them go off to big market clubs? We need to fine a way to keep players who are valueable to us as a team. If Chen has a good year, then we need to at least make a solid attempt to keep him.

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I will be interested to see what Shields gets. His career numbers are pretty similar to Chen's. Good combination of durability and consistency, better-than-average-but-not-elite stuff, lock for 12-16 wins, but Chen will be three years younger than Shields is now and he is lefthanded, plus he has Boras as his agent. He will not be cheap.

Another good comp would be CJ Wilson. Lefty, put up 2 great seasons after converting to SP. Elite ERA but high walks, and I thought his stuff was not quite as good as his ERA. He got 5 years/$77M at Age 32. I think that might be a "ceiling" comp for Chen.

By the way, that Buehrle contract is bizarre. MIA signed him for four years but only paid $6 million the first year, then traded him. Now TOR is paying him $20M. Pretty brilliant move by the Fish. But the better comp might be his previous one signed at Age 29, 4 years, $64M in 2008. In today's dollars that is more like $75M.

So, somewhere between 4/$50M and 5/$75M.

When he signed his contract, Wilson was coming off a career season where he made the all star team, threw 223 innings and had an ERA+ of 150 (and had an ERA+ of 134 the previous season). However, you're right that Chen is younger now than Wilson was then, and of course, there will have been four more years of salary inflation by the time Chen is a FA. So, I guess I can't say that 5/$75 mm is laughable, though that was my initial reaction. Of course, Chen has to have another solid year first. And, I still think he's more likely to get four years than five.

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Chen has the wrong agent to sign with the O's. The O's have a better chance of extending Norris, if they want him.

Ding, ding, ding...we have a winner.

Boras will put together a 100 page binder on Chen, coming up with some stat derivations to describe him as an Asian Sandy Koufax.

With the continued salary inflation, I suspect Boras to open with something outlandish like $20m/year.

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I will be interested to see what Shields gets. His career numbers are pretty similar to Chen's. Good combination of durability and consistency, better-than-average-but-not-elite stuff, lock for 12-16 wins, but Chen will be three years younger than Shields is now and he is lefthanded, plus he has Boras as his agent. He will not be cheap.

Another good comp would be CJ Wilson. Lefty, put up 2 great seasons after converting to SP. Elite ERA but high walks, and I thought his stuff was not quite as good as his ERA. He got 5 years/$77M at Age 32. I think that might be a "ceiling" comp for Chen.

By the way, that Buehrle contract is bizarre. MIA signed him for four years but only paid $6 million the first year, then traded him. Now TOR is paying him $20M. Pretty brilliant move by the Fish. But the better comp might be his previous one signed at Age 29, 4 years, $64M in 2008. In today's dollars that is more like $75M.

So, somewhere between 4/$50M and 5/$75M.

Shields has thrown over 200 innings each of the last 8 years. Chen has yet to do so, and Shields over the last four years has roughly a 3.18 ERA compared to Chen's 3.86 ERA. I actually think Shields will be a big overpay due to the mileage on the arm (wouldn't touch that), but he's apparently asking for 5 yrs/110mm. Let's say he "settles" for 5 yrs/95 mln...

A blown out comp might be Scott Feldman. Only a year older then Chen and has a 3.68 ERA the last 3 years vs 3.86 for Chen. Similar WHIPs and both don't have knock out stuff. Feldman got 3 yrs/30 mln. We all laughed at that contract at the time but he was quietly everything the Astros could of hoped for in his first year of the deal.

Adjusting for inflation and the fact that Chen is lefty, I'd say Chen might cost 3-4 years at $12-$15 million a year. He's pretty much league average when looking at ERA+ and the cost of an average pitcher who can eat innings is slightly north of $10 million per year. I mean would anyone be surprised if he got 4 years and $55 million?

Imagine what Chen would do in the NL in a big ballpark (San Diego? Miami?)

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Seeing these threads about us losing our own guys year in and year because of financial constraints, is getting depressing. Chen is a solid arm, and it's not just him, but I am sure there will be a Wieters thread next year about him leaving as well. Sorry, I usually don't post, but it is a little disheartening at this point.

I think its better then all those years when we didn't have anyone worth signing to big contracts. When you have a good team, players will become too expensive to keep unfortunately.

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