What's Chen going to get?

[Just Regular]

It'll make Duquette's life so much easier if Ubaldo pitches well next year and shows he belongs in Chen/Norris/Gonzalez's class.

If everyone outpitches Ubaldo again, there'll be an uneasiness trying to sign any of them long term because the club won't be able to look them in the eye and offer less than Ubaldo.

Ubaldo's a bad benchmark on the pitching side like Jones is a good one for the position players. I imagine any long-term talks with Davis last year, Cruz last month or Wieters now - the Jones contract is a ceiling of sorts. If I was the club, I'd even try to use it with Machado in whatever remaining time AJ stays the lead dog of the position players.

I would guess Tillman at some point gets a Jones-type extension above the Ubaldo-level, but also one like with AJ, sets a de facto "Oriole ceiling" for starting pitchers.

[tntoriole]

Chris Jones, unless I missed something?

Don't really see him as starting option in our rotation any time soon. Maybe out of the pen as a lefty since he had 21 out of 35 games from the pen in Norfolk last year. .

[weams]

A few current contracts:

Buehrle 4/$58 mm

E. Santana 4/$55 mm

E. Jackson 4/$52 mm

Jimenez 4/$50 mm

Nolasco 4/$49 mm

McCarthy 4/$48 mm

Hughes 3/$42 mm (2017-19 extension plus raise for 2015-16)

Liriano 3/$39 mm

Any reason at all to think Chen won't get something in this ballpark?

He will probably get 4/60. Boras.

[tntoriole]

He will probably get 4/60. Boras.

I could see that. And might even go there.

[DrungoHazewood]

Chen is a pretty consistent 2-win pitcher. He turns 30 in July. Has been reasonably healthy, reasonably durable, but not a guy who'll give you 200 innings. I don't see why he'd get paid for much more than 2 wins a year, which is $12-14M. So that's either 3/36 on the low end or 4/56 on the high end. Somewhere in there. If the Orioles want him back that's not an unreasonable deal, especially in the lower-middle part of that range.

[osfan83]

I try not to get to wrapped up in roster building this far out from 2016. Who knows what will happen. We might sign the next Chen out of the KBO, We might move some pieces at the trade deadline, we might see a breakout performance from a current non-prospect.

[weams]

To much that he won't be a Oriole after this year.

And wisely so.

[DrungoHazewood]

And wisely so.

I don't know why he wouldn't be an option. Obviously if he's out to maximize his next contract he'll probably price out teams that have more sense than cash, but we'll see.

[weams]

I don't know why he wouldn't be an option. Obviously if he's out to maximize his next contract he'll probably price out teams that have more sense than cash, but we'll see.

So the pick would be ok too?

[Frobby]

The real question is, why aren't the Orioles re-signing him? Buck always says we re-sign players we want to keep. It's time to step up.

I'm not in a hurry. A lot depends on what kind of year Bundy has, in addition to the guys who will be in the AAA rotation.

[DrungoHazewood]

So the pick would be ok too?

I don't look at resigning your guys as losing a pick. I look at it as resigning your guys. There are advantages to keeping a known guy, your own free agents who resign perform better.

In any case, the pick is worth maybe $5M. So even if you factor that in it's maybe 1/8th or 1/10th of the value of his deal.

[Redskins Rick]

I'm not in a hurry. A lot depends on what kind of year Bundy has, in addition to the guys who will be in the AAA rotation.

The Orioles appear to be slower to resign their own, at some point, you juggle the cost of waiting to sign the guy, and resigning him to a higher contract and he gets hurt or fizzles out.

As a fan, I like the approach, sign them and keep our core intact, but that doesn't appear to be DD's way.

Can't fault the guy, his way is working.

[Frobby]

He will probably get 4/60. Boras.

Has anyone ever researched whether Boras actually gets more for his "middle class" players, compared to their production, than other agents do? Especially if you just look at players who hit free agency, as opposed to those who choose to extend? He's certainly done well for many high-profile players, but I don't know if he does any better with the Chens of the world than any other agent would do. I don't see why a team would pay more just because Boras represents the player.

[weams]

I don't look at resigning your guys as losing a pick. I look at it as resigning your guys. There are advantages to keeping a known guy, your own free agents who resign perform better.

In any case, the pick is worth maybe $5M. So even if you factor that in it's maybe 1/8th or 1/10th of the value of his deal.

That makes good sense. Thanks you.

[Frobby]

He's a lefty, he's under 30, he can pitch to AL East lineups. He'll break $60M easily.

That doesn't answer my question about Boras. And Chen will be 30 when he's a free agent. Whether he breaks $60 mm depends a bit on how he performs in 2015. Assuming he's about as good as in 2014, I think $60 mm may be possible, but it isn't certain.