What's Chen going to get?

[Nevermore]

Do you really think we're giving another 4 year/50 mil contract to a pitcher after Ubaldo?

Yep, I know about the Ubaldo signing. DD thought that he was getting a fully-developed quality pitcher. Instead, he has gotten an untradeable reclamation project. Fortunately, it looks as though DD got a reclamation project with a decent work ethic -- though I doubt that DD said to himself, "Let's give a 4 year/50 mil contract to a reclamation project because he has a solid work ethic." Instead, it looks as though DD miscalculated Ubaldo's abilities and progress when DD proposed that contract. So now the team will have to do some work with Ubaldo to salvage his career and that 4 year/50 mil contract. If Ubaldo continues his progress and does well in the next few years, then it actually will turn out to be a good thing that he was signed for 4 years.

The Os have had Norris and Chen for a while, and have had a chance to observe them and their progress. So if they continue to be decent, quality pitchers, then there is less of a chance that DD will miscalculate their abilities when offering at least one of them a long term contract.

But do I really have to shout from the stands, "Bud, give up a HR to Sandoval so that you won't cost that much"?

[weams]

Has anyone ever researched whether Boras actually gets more for his "middle class" players, compared to their production, than other agents do? Especially if you just look at players who hit free agency, as opposed to those who choose to extend? He's certainly done well for many high-profile players, but I don't know if he does any better with the Chens of the world than any other agent would do. I don't see why a team would pay more just because Boras represents the player.

No, you know I don't do that type of research. But I know Boras holds out for the most AAV even in the mid tier guys. And sometime, he blows them up just to make a point.

[weams]

That doesn't answer my question about Boras. And Chen will be 30 when he's a free agent. Whether he breaks $60 mm depends a bit on how he performs in 2015. Assuming he's about as good as in 2014, I think $60 mm may be possible, but it isn't certain.

I don't believe he will get 85. Scott will probably ask for it with a good season.

[DrungoHazewood]

He's a lefty, he's under 30, he can pitch to AL East lineups. He'll break $60M easily.

I'd like to see some evidence from Frobby's question about Boras breaking the normal free agency valuation marks for middle-class free agents. To me the only way Chen "easily" gets $60M is if he puts up a 3 or 4 win season in '15. Or if inflation drives the cost of a win way up, to maybe $8M. In today's dollars he's a 40-50M pitcher over 3 or 4 years.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't believe he will get 85. Scott will probably ask for it with a good season.

But why would any team pay way more than typical free agent prices for a 180-inning third starter who has an ERA 5% better than average on a team with an outstanding defense? A smart team would look at Chen and think that with a average or poor defense behind him he might be a quarter-run over his FIP instead of under.

[Redskins Rick]

I'd like to see some evidence from Frobby's question about Boras breaking the normal free agency valuation marks for middle-class free agents. To me the only way Chen "easily" gets $60M is if he puts up a 3 or 4 win season in '15. Or if inflation drives the cost of a win way up, to maybe $8M. In today's dollars he's a 40-50M pitcher over 3 or 4 years.

The pitching market is getting crazy.

Phil Hughes just got 3 years 42 million, and he was already under team control for 2 more seasons.

[DrungoHazewood]

The pitching market is getting crazy.

Phil Hughes just got 3 years 42 million, and he was already under team control for 2 more seasons.

The Twins obviously think Hughes has turned a corner, but he's coming off a 4+ win season with a 11.5:1 K:BB ratio*, and he's being paid for less than two wins a year. If he really has established a new level he'll be quite a bargain. But... in '13 he was more like a replacement-level pitcher so the deal isn't without risk.

* Today's strikeout rates again require brain re-calibration. Hughes' 2014 season was the highest K:BB ratio in history for someone who qualified for the ERA title. That is, if you don't count Candy Cummings' 1875 season with a 20+ K:BB ratio due mainly to ~9 balls being required to walk someone.

[weams]

The Twins obviously think Hughes has turned a corner, but he's coming off a 4+ win season with a 11.5:1 K:BB ratio*, and he's being paid for less than two wins a year. If he really has established a new level he'll be quite a bargain. But... in '13 he was more like a replacement-level pitcher so the deal isn't without risk.

* Today's strikeout rates again require brain re-calibration. Hughes' 2014 season was the highest K:BB ratio in history for someone who qualified for the ERA title. That is, if you don't count Candy Cummings' 1875 season with a 20+ K:BB ratio due mainly to ~9 balls being required to walk someone.

Ubaldo had a great 2013 as well.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ubaldo had a great 2013 as well.

Yes. In a totally different way. Ubaldo probably had weeks where he walked more than Hughes did in all of 2014.

[Frobby]

Unlike Ubaldo or Hughes, Chen has been a very steady performer thus far in his career, with no huge peaks or valleys.

[TouchemAll]

Let's put it this way if he has a similar year in 2015 it will be WAY more then the O's will pay JMHO.