Market Equilibrium: Perceived Value of Middle Relief

[MASNPalmer]

Let me preface this by saying that Moneyball (and the Moneyball Theory) isn't about OBP or finding guys who can take a walk and can't play defense. Moneyball was about finding market inefficiencies, selling high, and finding value in assets that the market has mispriced. For example, once the rest of baseball caught on to Beane's strategy of drafting college kids instead of high school kids, Beane flipped the switch and started to draft more high school kids. Similary, Duquette has taken advantage of market inefficiencies through roster management, strong defense, and a deep bullpen -- his own take on Moneyball (nothing earth shattering here). Unfortunately for the O's, the success they and the Royals had (as well as the Tigers flopping) this October showcased to the country why bullpen pieces are the new asset in style.

Take a look at some of the trades/contracts relievers earned this winter:

Dave Robertson 4 yrs $46 mln (ok, he's a closer, but still)

Andrew Miller 4 yrs $36 mln

Luke Gregerson 3 yrs $18.5 mln

Zach Duke 3 yrs $15 mln

Pat Neshek 2 yrs $12.5 mln

Jairo Diaz traded for Josh Rutledge

Luis Castillo part of a package for Casey McGegee

I mean, think about Scott Shields. In the mid 2000s he was one of the best relief pitchers in the game. He never made more than $5 mln, even when he became "more expensive." Using the CPI inflation calculator, the $5 mln he earned in 2010 (on the downside of his career once he became more expensive) is still only worth $5.4 mln today. And even that was without a long term commitment.

As was discussed earlier on OH, can the O's afford O'Day? Probably not. Should the O's allocate resources to a player who plays in 5% of their innings? Obviously not all innings are made the same and these are high leverage, but there is a definite market inefficiency when Brandon Morrow gets $2.5 mln and Neshek gets over $12.5 mln guaranteed a year or two after he was removed from baseball.

I'm not saying the O's should be trading their all pen pieces (especially if they want to compete this year). But obtaining late inning arms has never been more expensive. Maybe Duquette wants to trade Hunter/O'Day/Matusz to free up cap space and acquire positional players (Rutledge would of been nice IMO). Maybe scouting has to be changed to identify failed starters with 1-2 plus pitchers who could be cheap. Whatever it is, the Birds need to be thinking about (on a long-term basis) how to assemble a bullpen and/or take advantage of the market today.

[Can_of_corn]

Let the other teams spend. Until some pitching coach figures out how to eliminate the extreme volatility of relief pitching those teams are just wasting their money.

And yes, O'Day should be allowed to walk at the end of the season.

[clapdiddy]

Agree with the sentiments about bullpen volatility here. I'd rather find the next Brad Brach than spend a ton of money on the bullpen. Been there, done that (Baez, Tomlin, Groom, Walker, etc.).

[AlbionHero]

Its a shame that its now been found out how middle relief is more important, so thats where the money is going. It'll hurt us since we took advantage of having little money wrapped up in an important part of the team. But I'm sure Dan will find another way to exploit the system. Platoons are one way.

[Can_of_corn]

Its a shame that its now been found out how middle relief is more important, so thats where the money is going. It'll hurt us since we took advantage of having little money wrapped up in an important part of the team. But I'm sure Dan will find another way to exploit the system. Platoons are one way.

I like aggressively targeting failed minor league starters that project well in MLB bullpens.

[MASNPalmer]

I like aggressively targeting failed minor league starters that project well in MLB bullpens.

Agreed. Can you imagine what Brandon Morrow would do in one inning of work, throwing 95+? Craig Breslow got basically the same money as him and Breslow had an ERA of about 6.00 last year. If it can work for Tommy Hunter...

And after all, aren't all relievers just failed starters, anyway?

[Can_of_corn]

Agreed. Can you imagine what Brandon Morrow would do in one inning of work, throwing 95+? Craig Breslow got basically the same money as him and Breslow had an ERA of about 6.00 last year. If it can work for Tommy Hunter...

And after all, aren't all relievers just failed starters, anyway?

Doolittle is a failed position player.

[AlbionHero]

I like aggressively targeting failed minor league starters that project well in MLB bullpens.

Yeah, thats a good idea too. I'm sure there are a bunch of those kinds of guys hanging out on different AAA teams that could be effective going 1 inning at a time.

[Camden_yardbird]

Remember during the last two drafts when we were all wondering why the Orioles were taking so many college bullpen pitchers and fringe starters...yeah. this.

[Can_of_corn]

Remember during the last two drafts when we were all wondering why the Orioles were taking so many college bullpen pitchers and fringe starters...yeah. this.

I wasn't wondering, I was applauding.

I have thought it was a draft strategy worth exploring for some time now.

[sportsfan8703]

Look at what DD has done the last two offseasons. Signed De La Cruz, Escalona and Webb to MLB deals. Traded for Brach. Won the bidding war for Andrew Miller. Then so far this offseason he's drafted 2 rule 5 relievers and signed W.Wright. Then we have a group of guys in AAA to replace Chen,Norris,Hunter and O'day. They don't have to be frontline guys, but just good enough to fill out the back of the rotation and the pen.

[25 Nuggets]

I like aggressively targeting failed minor league starters that project well in MLB bullpens.

I agree. Watch out for Brandon Morrow.

[weams]

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/09/09/shutdown-relievers-failed-starters-dellin-betances

[weams]

a breaking ball that defies definition — it's a hybrid between a curve and slider

For the Gausman doubters.

[Can_of_corn]

For the Gausman doubters.

I don't doubt him, just his breaking ball.